The situation remains tense as we look at prediction markets to figure out what is the most probable outcome.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The chances for a permanent deal remain low. Traders see that main points of contestation are for now unresolvable.

Additionally, we see that the US airlift of troops and equipment continues unbothered, indicating that we are in a temporary break, rather than at the premise of a permanent deal.

JD Vance is still expected to talk to the Iranian delegation though. Even amid reports that it is missing. In our opinion, some talks should happen as there are factions in both the US and Iran that want peace. However, we believe that the market is slightly too certain about it.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, even though the ceasefire was conditional on it being open. For now traders see a chance for increased traffic, but even a partial normalization with 40+ boats crossing the strait remains elusive at 43%:

As the commodities crisis is dependent on the strait, rather than the war, energy prices remain elevated:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances are flat since the ceasefire announcement, but are still elevated at 30%.

Same can be said about a Kharg Island invasion, which simply trades with a discount to general invasion:

#4 Regional Expansion

Outside of the UAE, of which chances remain slightly elevated due to rumors of them attacking Iran already, chances of a regional expansion lowered significantly.

At the same time, chances of a Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure stabilized around 12%, indicating a rather low chance of that, even if war was to escalate again:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances stabilized in the low 20s amid possible talks.

In our opinion they are still elevated vs our fair value perception as nothing indicates the foundation is wobbly at this time.

Wrap up

With nothing certain now, markets are volatile responding to any new report. We shall wait for what the weekend brings as historically it was a time of escalation.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So let's see the markets to understand where we are heading.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Traders remain bullish about end of hostilities today, even amid some strikes recorded on Bahrain.

There were also rumors on USAF tankers heading towards Iran, however till now we have no confirmed reports of Israeli / US strikes on Iran since late last night. The parties are also supposed to meet today or tomorrow in Islamabad, but it remains to be seen whether the meeting even takes place.

For now traders give 85% chance JD Vance will meet with the Iranian delegation by the end of April:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Traders remain bearish on the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite it being promised by Trump.

For now almost no boats are crossing as Iran is furious about Israel continuing to attack Lebanon. It is clear now that neither Israel nor the Gulf states were consulted during dubious ceasefire talks.

Energy prices remain high as no traffic is resumed and problems continue to pile up in extraction, refining, transport and general supply chains.

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances remain elevated at 31% as traders see a difficult path towards peace with many regional actors dissatisfied with the current arrangement.

Additionally, all US personnel will remain in the region while the reinforcements are still on the way. Kharg Island invasion chances stabilized near last week's levels as well:

Prediction markets show us that chances for a restart remain high.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances remain elevated as the UAE is reported to have attacked Iran and Iran is reported to have attacked the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

On the other hand, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait looks quite safe with. only 13% chance of closure by the end of the month. Seems like for now the Houthi are not looking to reignite the war.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iranian regime fall chances remain elevated as peace talks are fragile. Iran is threatening exit if the offensive on Lebanon is not stopped.

The next few days will certainly be as volatile as the last 2.

Wrap up

We observe the situation and see more equipment being sent to the region as progress on talks and terms is... negative. there is nothing really agreed on and 2 sides are still far apart.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Despite the official announcement, many inside Israel and the US were surprised and looking at continuing strikes, it looks more like another extension of the deadline rather than a proper cessation of hostilities. Let's see then what the prediction markets think.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The main ceasefire markets resolved to Yes on the announcement, but traders are not exactly sure the military action will end soon.

The market's rules specify the end of military action as a full day of no strikes from the US and Israel on Iran. Since Israel was not consulted on the ceasefire and the current rumored arrangement doesn't solve their strategic goals, there is a fairly high chance the announced ceasefire will not hold.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the ceasefire, Iran still has control of the strait, as specified in the initial agreement and it said it will let only 10-15 boats per day.

However, traders see a path towards a resumed traffic, for now. We are still in the early hours of the ceasefire and the initial bullishness might soon be replaced with a volatile reversal. We are monitoring the markets closely.

Energy prices reacted similarly, even if the real, hard supply of energy is still in a dire situation. We are still at price levels 50%+ higher than at the beginning of the year:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances cratered on the news, but are still at 30% by the end of the year.

The marines are still on the way while assets are not being recalled. In reality we are a long way from official, lasting peace and we are at the same level of risk as we were on 13th of March, in the middle of massive strikes.

Kharg Island invasion chances also dropped, but they have since regained half of the move as the proposed ceasefire framework is dubious at best:

#4 Regional Expansion

Bab-el-Mandeb strait closure chances are pretty much at the same level as a week ago as Netanyahu declared Lebanon offensive is not part of the ceasefire agreement.

Iran might not agree with it and the Houthis will definitely not agree with it, thus traders quickly reversed the initial move down.

Chances of the UAE and Saudi Arabia dropped slightly though as traders see a potential deescalation as a signal to at least postpone a regional expansion of the conflict.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances reached a new low, but still remain elevated at 19% by the end of the year.

It is probably the best indication that traders expect a lot of volatility and chaos despite a ceasefire.

Wrap up

We were a bit surprised by the announcement (as were a lot of traders) and we can already see that the ceasefire is fragile, if not purely imaginary with missiles still flying from both sides and Lebanon conflict raging on.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Be it a market narrative, or a real struggle of factions inside both Iran and the US, the conflict looks like it's spiraling out of control. Let's look at the markets nd try to make sense out of it.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire chances erased all the gains they made today on the rejection news and we are back to yesterday's levels with a further move downward being very likely.

It is more and more clear that there are groups of interests that want to see the war continue. However, the situation remains dynamic and we are looking at a volatile day.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while ship traffic forecast is down.

With an apparent escalation in the works right now, the chances for a US escort operation remain low:

A hit on Kharg Island only makes the situation more dire with key energy commodities being up on the news:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The chances for a proper US invasion are slightly up. A hit on the Kharg Island resulted in chances of its invasion rising sharply:

Yesterday, we highlighted a massive airlift that happened over the weekend. Traders must believe that targeting Kharg Island might indicate it being a target for an invasion. Recent Trump comments on funding also indicate we might be in for quite a long war after all.

#4 Regional Expansion

All the war news had little impact on the broader regional expansion chances.

At the same time the UAE continues its hawkish narrative. It is clear that they want the war to resolve in Tehran's fall rather than a compromise. For now it's mostly talk though as Houthis are also not eager for now to escalate:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

But all the ceasefire talk makes traders think the regime is at least somewhat coherent, decreasing chances of its collapse.

Resilient. Still.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We will continue to monitor the situation as we are potentially entering a dangerous period, as indicated by Qatari sources.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

More and more, people on our timeline face the unthinkable and cling to hope that since the effects of a protracted energy supply shock will be extremely massive, there surely must be a way to stop all this madness. But is there?

We welcomed Monday with yet another ceasefire rumor, but let's see if this one has any credibility in it.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances shot up since the rumors of talks, but we are still well below the last week's level.

As we said in the intro, people want to believe, but the reality is that there is little to believe in. It's another Monday with a dovish rumor, that feels more and more like pure market manipulation than an honest effort to end the conflict.

We shall learn more one Trump speaks at 1 PM ET, but our expectations are low.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but as more and more countries approach Iran to cut a deal, chances of 20+ ships passing the strait in a signle day rose to 82%.

However, 40+ bracket is priced at 46%, showing that any hope of a return to normal is limited. At the same time chances of a US-led escort operation remain low:

All the ceasefire talk managed to lower the oil prices a bit, but we are still above $100 a barrel for any type of oil and it remains to be seen how long will the effort manage to keep the prices down:

#3 Boots On The Ground

It happened. We had US boots on the ground as part of CSAR operation for one of the F-15 crew that crashed over Iran.

Now we must focus on a different market - an actual invasion. With massive airlift over the weekend, combined with plenty of rumors, even ceasefire narrative didn't manage to drop the chances here:

However, it still remains to be seen what is the target of the assumed invasion, as chances of a Kharg Island one are slim:

#4 Regional Expansion

Despite the failed UN vote on the Iran war, chances of UAE involvement rose over the weekend to 24%.

Gulf countries have all the incentive to continue the war at this point and their involvement is certainly on the table. Iranian control of the strait would be a massive strategic loss for them.

At the same time, chances of Bab-el-Mandeb strait closure remain low as the Houthi are not escalating at this point:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Left on purpose with no comment.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are anxiously awaiting this week's developments while looking at what countries in Asia and Europe do to limit the impact of energy supply shock. More about that in PROPHET's Global Outlook.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Some generals were also fired, sparking all kinds of rumors online, from a coup attempt to a purge to eliminate those unwilling to commit to the war.

So let's look what prediction markets think ahead of the weekend.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to find the new lows as we are awaiting the weekend action.

Traders expect the second round to last longer than 2-3 weeks and / or they don't see it as the final one. With Iranian resilience and current strategic leverage, the chances for a quick end are getting away.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed while traders see coin-flip chances of 20+ ships passing the strait by the end of the month in a single day.

The chances increased slightly as the first French ship was observed crossing the strait unbothered. More countries will try to work with Iran to resume traffic, however any escalation might further endanger the strait traffic.

And with no escort operation in sight, it is only logical oil breached new highs before the weekend:

#3 Boots On The Ground

As we enter the long weekend, chances of US boots on the ground are reapproaching all time highs.

Partly fueled by the sheer number of US troops in the region (over 50,000) and partly by Trump saying that the real destruction has not even begun, traders start to see ground ops as inevitable. However, it is still unclear what will be the target of the operation as Kharg Island invasion remains unlikely:

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of either Saudi Arabia or UAE entering the conflict increased ahead of the UN Security Council vote and the weekend.

The Gulf-led effort to legalize the action under UN has reportedly failed before the vote has even started. And when it comes to second biggest risk (Bab-el-Mandeb strait), chances rose significantly ahead of the long weekend:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

You know the drill. Resilient. Entrenched.

Wrap up

That's all for today. Do enjoy the Easter long weekend whether you celebrate to holiday or not and hopefully the world economy will survive whatever is coming our way.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Additionally, Trump compared the length of the Iran war with both world wars and the Vietnam and Korean war, implying Iran war might drag on.

Traditional financial markets expected a deescalatory speech and oil went above $100 on the news. Let's see how prediction markets reacted as recently they offer a more nuanced view hen it comes to macro.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances went down across the board as traders internalized that the 2-3 weeks of operations is only a plan.

And as it is usual with plans, they tend to take their own life when executed. Thus we've reached the lowest level yet for the chances of a ceasefire by the end of the month. And we are still unsure what the US is planning.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Whatever operation is being planned, we can be sure that it will negatively impact the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

For now the strait remains effectively closed, outside of the ships that pay the Iranian fee and are not affiliated with the US, Israel or other allies that aid the US in the current war.

Traders were also restrained when thinking about any escort operation as the chances of one grew only modestly during the speech. Which cannot be said about energy prices with WTI now being on par with Brent:

#3 Boots On The Ground

With the speech, chances of US boots on the ground rebounded, almost reaching previous highs.

Despite the American public being largely against a ground operation, the US might not have another choice. Be it an escort operation, or something else that gives the US leverage, ground troops will be essential in securing the objective.

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of any Gulf country joining the war remain low, even as the UAE tries to force the UN to approve the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the Houthi are once again threatening the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait as pressure on Iran and Lebanon increases, with chances slightly up since yesterday:

It is now more likely than any ground action against Saudi Arabia, presumably because the kingdom eased its aggressive rhetoric in recent days:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

All the escalatory talk did little to influence Iran regime fall chances.

Resilient. Entrenched.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are awaiting now the long weekend as expectations are for the beginning of round 2 to start then.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

There is plenty to comment on since last week. All based on the best source of reliable information in the world, ie. prediction markets, and most precisely Polymarket where there are the most crucial markets on global events.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

In the US, there is always something going on.

Trump said his summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping had been rescheduled to May amid the Iran war. Trump also said he will host Xi in Washington later this year.

Comment: war or not, they need to meet eventually. Especially if the round 2 of the conflict goes against the US and the strait will continue to be controlled by Iran.

Trump directed the DHS to pay airport security staff, declaring the six-week DHS shutdown an “emergency situation”. In the meantime, Republicans in the House rejected an earlier passed bill by the Senate that would have opened the department as it failed to fund immigration enforcement. A stop-gap funding bill was introduced by Mike Johnson, but it is expected to fail in the Senate.

Comment: Polymarket tells us we shouldn’t expect the end of this saga anytime soon. I tend to agree with that assessment as limiting the immigration enforcement is in Democrats and more center-aligned Republicans interest.

We had a third round of “No Kings” protests in the US on Saturday, marching against Trump and his recent policies. More than 8 million people attended over 3,000 events across the country, while Trump’s approval rating is at -18.

Comment: Trump is making no friends by his recent actions which shows not only on his approval rating, but also midterms markets, as seen above, where a democrat sweep is now the most likely scenario.

NASA announced new plans to return the astronauts to the Moon before the ned of Trump’s term in 2028. Jared Isaacman, the new agency head, also said a new $20 billion base would be built on the Moon to allow for more reliance on the private sector. In the meantime 4 astronauts entered final preparations to loop the Moon in the preparatory mission to land on it and create a permanent human base there.

Comment: the haste is purely political, but I’m glad to see renewed progress in the space mission department.

A jury in LA found Meta and YouTube liable in a andmark social media addiction trial. A 20-year-old woman alleged their platforms are designed to be addictive, which harmed her mental health; they were ordered to pay $3m in total damages, while TikTok and Snap settled the case pre-trial.

Comment: it opens the doors for a lot of Americans to sue social media companies. But what is more, it opens a door to heavily regulate social media. Policies like the Australian ban are coming sooner than we think.

A federal judge in America blocked the Trump administration from blacklisting Anthropic. It is part of the Pentagon x Anthropic fight.

Comment: despite all the fight from Anthropic, they will have their models used for war as there is no other way to secure government contracts they so badly need.

The Americas

No news from the Americas this week. And Delcy is still looking strong to lead Venezuela long-term.

Asia

It’s a tough period for Asia.

Taiwan’s opposition leader will visit China in April. The opposition wants to regain power by pitching closer ties with China.

Comment: the strategy of a 1,000 cuts is working for China, especially consideirng the current energy crisis.

Many Asian countries are introducing measures to soften the blow of the acute energy crisis unfolding in the region.

Comment: COVID-style lockdowns will make a comeback.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war is definitely escalating.

I posted a deep dive on the issues:

As well as a commentary video on last week’s developments, so I’ll be brief here:

After the initial ceasefire message that postponed the ultimatum issued last weekend, we’ve heard only hawkish messages. The Us is sending more troops to the region as it mulls a wider ground operation.

Ceasefire efforts, culminated in a 15-point plan for Iran failed. Despite that, Trump extended his deadline for his ultimatum till April 6th.

However, by the end of the week, Houthi joined the fight as Iran is getting ready for the US escalation. The Houthi are also mulling the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

Generally the 2 sides threatened each other by floating targeting of energy sites and even American universities across the region.

By the end of the week, USS Tripoli with thousands of Marines arrived in the region, ready to engage Iran.

Comment: we are in for round 2 and it will be a consequential one as the US will try to free the Strait of Hormuz.

In the meantime the Lebanon invasion is going forward. While the culture minister of Lebanon is warning against the invasion that displaced over 1 million civilians, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand the existing security zone in the southern Lebanon.

Comment: this is a wider, regional war that won’t end anytime soon.

Europe

Despite all the action in the Middle East, it has also been a busy week in Europe.

Russia launched one of the biggest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war began, sending 948 drones at targets across the country. The strikes hit a key power line in southern Ukraine which affected Moldova’s electricity supply.

Comment: between the three options Putin faces this summer, escalation seems most likely.

Lukashenko flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Un. We have little details on the trip besides the Belarusian leader laying wreath on Mr Putin’s behalf at Kumsusan mausoleum, where North Korea’s former leaders lie.

Comment: Belarus, amid lack of western engagement, is surely moving towards Russia in the west vs east alignment.

The European Parliament approved a trade deal with the US on conditions that America lowers its rate on European goods to 15%, as promised, and Europe having a right to scrap the agreement in case its sovereignty is threatened by the US.

Comment: finally, some red lines from Europe with an actual threat to enforce them.

Giorgia Meloni conceded defeat in a referendum on judicial reform. Early results showed 54% of Italians opposed her proposal while 59% of Italians voted in the referendum.

Comment: no real comment from me as I didn’t track the event. However her defeat means weakening of the right-wing in Italy.

Austria proposed a social media restriction for young people, those under the age of 14.

Comment: as mentioned above, heavy social media regulation is coming; not only in the US, but worldwide.

Business, Finance & Economics

Also an interesting week in business and economics, with a bit of irony.

The OECD warned that global growth would be weakened by the Iran war related energy shock. It has forecasted the growth in 2026 would be 2.9%.

Comment: they are severely underestimating the impact of the energy shock.

Danone agreed to buy Huel, a British meal-replacement drinks company, for $1.2 billion. The drinks are supposedly popular with Ozempic users.

Comment: Huel was a decent replacement last I checked, interesting that such a giant is interested in the niche.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.

Along with this narrative, we also saw main demands from the US and Iran. Next to a “kinetic negotiation” of war, a diplomatic track was opened. While there is a long way between opening a diplomatic track (eg. the diplomatic track in Ukraine war has been open since early 2025), we now have new information that is necessary to assess.

As there is a lot of conflicting information, I need to go through both aspects of the negotiation and derive the path we are on.

The Diplomatic Track

First news of an opening of a diplomatic track hit us on Monday with this post from Trump:

Since then we learned the respective position of the two sides with regards to ending the conflict.

The US (rumored):

1. Removal of all sanctions on Iran.
2. US assistance in advancing and developing a civilian nuclear project (electricity generation).
3. Removal of the threat of sanctions being reimposed.
4. Iran’s nuclear program is frozen under a defined framework.
5. Enriched uranium to remain, but under supervision and agreed limits.
6. Missile program to be addressed at a later stage, with limits on quantity and range.
7. Use of nuclear programs restricted to civilian/defensive purposes only.
8. Development of existing nuclear capabilities halted.
9. No further expansion of enrichment capabilities.
10. No production of weapons-grade nuclear material on Iranian soil.
11. All enriched material to be handed over to the IAEA within an agreed timeline.
12. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow to be taken out of use (destroyed).
13. International monitoring and verification mechanisms enforced.
14. Gradual implementation tied to compliance.
15. Additional regional and security understandings between the parties.

Iranian response:

1. The enemy’s aggression and acts of assassination come to an end.
2. Objective conditions are established to ensure that the war will not reoccur.
3. The payment of damages and war reparations is guaranteed and clearly determined.
4. The end of the war is implemented across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved in this conflict throughout the region.
5. Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is its natural and legal right and guarantees for the implementation of the other party’s commitments must be recognized.

These seem pretty far apart, but the real conclusion is that both sides are rather still talking past each other.

Conclusion

From the US plan we can see that top priority is the nuclear issue. Almost all points in the plan are around that issue and offer solutions that would make the US comfortable. In addition, the US is offering clear concession by being ready to drop all sanctions on Iran in return.

Additionally, we can clearly see that the issue of proxy financing and ballistic missiles is pushed towards phase 2 that might never come. It’s a classic Trump device aimed at seeking the least common denominator in the negotiations.

On the other side we have Iran singing a completely different tune. They are saying that any ceasefire must ensure long-term deterrence (along with total peace across the region) and reparations for the war. However, they also propose a solution in the terms.

Iran can treat total sanctions relief as a form of reparations. Additionally they seek an official affirmation of its right to control the strait and extract fees from the vessels. It serves 2 purposes:

1. The affirmation of control in international regulations (UN could step in here) would enshrine deterrence in law.
2. Fees for transit would complete the reparations part.

That being said, there is no indication of nuclear alignment between the 2 sides. Our safest assumption here would be that if deterrence and reparations are established, Iran could agree to pre-war proposals, ie. some limits on enrichment, but with an explicit approval of the nuclear programs existence. We can also say that there is alignment on most points presented by the US, on condition that Iran’s points are affirmed. Here as well ballistic missiles and proxies are left alone.

The Fight Within

We also need to remember that on both sides there are factions that are softer and more hardline.

On the Iranian side, the softer faction would agree to more concessions on the nuclear side, but the Strait of Hormuz issue is non-negotiable at this point. The more hardline faction (most likely IRGC leadership) would likely not go beyond JCPOA, but with total sanctions removal and strait control affirmation.

On the US side, the softer faction (which surely Trump also belongs to), is keen to see the war end with a win on nuclear, and could be ready to compromise on the strait issue, however it is unlikely they will agree to a full Iranian control. The hardliners (ie. the deep state + Israel + Gulf countries) see free passage through the strait as non-negotiable, with the most hardline option being no concessions at all to Iran.

If the published points offer some sort of consensus view of both sides, we can see that the main point of contestation is the Strait of Hormuz issue.

The Kinetic Track

The diplomatic track is negotiations under fire. Here as well, both sides fight for different objectives.

Round 1

The US and Israel were aiming to disrupt the decision making process within the regime, as Israel did to Hezbollah through the pager operation and rapid decapitation of senior leadership. The aim was to significantly reduce fighting capability of the regime along with paralyzing its decision making center to force them into an ugly ceasefire negotiation.

Iran’s aim was vastly different. They expected this rapid airpower strategy and their aim was to survive decapitation, expel enemy forces from the Persian Gulf and establish control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The first round ended in the Iranian win. Despite having majority of previous senior leadership killed and having severely degraded military and economic capabilities, they managed to achieve their strategic goals. Arguably, the US is in a worse position than before the war - the regime turned more hardline, survived intensive air campaign, deterred US forces from its vicinity and established control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Round 2

In round 2, Iran needs to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Many analysts perceive Iranian “safe corridor for a fee” as a deescalation. After all it reestablishes some flow of traffic, in theory decreasing Iranian leverage over the global economy. In the meantime, it is phase 2 of their plan. They need to show the world that they can credibly hold the strait to force the rest of the world to affirm its control. It is in no ones interest to collapse the global economy. It is however in Iran’s interest to deny the enemy traffic and keep energy cost high to continue imposing costs on the enemy.

It’s a delicate balance they are seeking - hurt the global economy, but not so much so it collapses, while at the same time establish a new reality in the strait that they can benefit politically and economically from. Because in case of a total global economy collapse, they would not be able to extract fees and finance the country and the war.

On the other side, the US has 2 responses:

1. Deny Iran the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz by either launching an escort operation that can bring back meaningful traffic through the strait or some kind of a ground operation aiming to establish control of the Iranian shore and islands.
2. Affirm Iranian (partial) control of the strait and seek deescalation, pursuing maximalist goals in regards to key issue, ie. nuclear capability.

First choice is easier said than done. I postponed my detailed escort operation deep dive due to the emergence of the diplomatic track, however my research indicates that the US would be able to run a single convoy a day through the strait, compromising of up to 8 vessels.

Such an escort operation would require a destroyer fleet with air support, that would escort the ships all the way from the strait entry, to the ports and back. And this is without consideration for possible mines in the strait. Thus 1 convoy a day as the whole round trip would take a few days for each convoy, ie. there will be several convoys running at the same time, but in different stages (them being: entry, Persian Gulf passage, port load / reload, Persian Gulf return, exit through the strait, destroyer reloading).

Even if successful, such a solution would establish a joint control of the strait, however with Iran holding the better cards and being able to continually hurt the global economy as the US aligned traffic would be insufficient to alleviate the incoming energy shortage. 8 vessels is less than 10% of normal traffic.

It is this that leads me to believe a dual track of kinetic + diplomatic negotiations was opened. On the one hand, military assets continue to be sent to the region to allow for an escort operation and subsequent ground operation to retake the Strait of Hormuz, forced by the hardline faction. On the other hand, the softer faction opened a diplomatic track to get a feel for Iranian willingness to compromise. The opening of this track is itself interesting. Initially the US hoped it can scare Iran into concessions. However Iran, in line with its madman strategy, threatened the entire Gulf infrastructure. Its threat was believable, thus a narrative deescalation by opening the diplomatic track.

Ultimately, we need to answer 2 questions:

1. Can a diplomatic solution be reached before the most intense part of round 2?
2. Can the US win round 2? If so, then what?

Answers

Long story short is that I don’t believe the US is ready to affirm even partial Iranian control of the strait. Not only would such a solution enrage Gulf countries and Israel, but it would also establish a status quo that is worse than the one before the war and would be difficult for Trump to frame as a victory, even if it would resolve the nuclear issue.

I see the recent comments from some senators on the issue of boots on the ground as a sign of attempts at building consensus around the diplomatic track being made. However, it is still too early to tell whether these attempts are effective. The consensus is necessary for the diplomatic track to succeed as sanctions need to be dropped by the Congress. Strait control affirmation needs to be done through the UN. Trump cannot TACO unilaterally here. He needs broad consensus in Washington.

And here I have 3 reservations:

1. Trump is not good at building consensus in Washington. He is a polarizing outsider, less so than during his 1st term, but still. He never really needed to build one, especially under pressure of the global economy. His adversaries in Washington also have good arguments - it was Trump who left the JCPOA and it was Trump who failed in the initial negotiations. They can stick it to him and simply not agree to anything that offers more concessions than the original deal while getting nothing in return. After all, there is also the midterms angle at play; this war hurts MAGA.
2. The US is barely scratched. They temporarily lost a few bases, some equipment and a few lives of American soldiers. I don’t want to lack empathy here as every live lost is incredibly important, but the losses do not compare to any other US-led wars in the past. Also the US has plenty of options to escalate and unleash its military might on Iran.
3. The US is not as affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as Asia or Europe. They can try and mitigate the worst of the crisis for its allies, while themselves being somewhat shielded from the worst consequences of the closure for at least a few months. Yes, the US will still have inflation, some shortages and potentially a recession. But none of this is existential. They can sell and force distribution of oil & gas between allies so that the burden sharing is more fair and controlled. They can send aid to avert crisis in the most affected countries, regardless of their affiliation to avoid a regional domino effect.

For Iran, no affirmation of strait control means no reparation and no deterrence. While deterrence can be established by eg. guarantees from permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK and the US), there is no clear solution for the reparations issue as long as there is no consensus in Washington. Iran knows it is a net winner of the round 1, so if they are to give up the control of the strait, they would need to present other win to the domestic public. Especially since both sides represent a posture of readiness for round 2.

Round 2

I believe that due to the circumstances, Iran has a strategic initiative at the moment. Thus Iran’s objectives for round 2 will be of mostly defensive nature:

1. Survive continuing strike campaign.
2. Maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz while expanding the list of nations that can use it for a fee, forcing soft American allies to abandon the US in favor of avoiding acute energy shortage.
3. Deny the US ability to retake even partial control of the strait.

The US at the same time will go on the offensive to retake the strategic initiative:

1. Continue to limit Iranian ability to project power in the strait by joint US-Israeli strike campaigns.
2. Try to retake the Strait of Hormuz to deny Iran’s only strong leverage.

Here, both sides have strong escalation options. The US can do anything, from an escort operation to a ground invasion. However, Iran can also do anything, from engaging Houthi in Yemen to close the Bab-al-Mandeb strait, to striking energy and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf as a deterrent to even striking the Suez canal to establish total control of Gulf flows. Not to mention striking convoys when they start to run. For now both sides agreed that energy infra should be left out of the equation, establishing soft red lines that both agree on. This consensus can be easily destroyed, but with Trump taco on Monday, I don’t see it as extremely likely.

Thus my expectation for the next few weeks is twofold. On the one hand I expect the diplomatic track to be pushed hard, especially in the media, but with no fruition as both sides are too far apart on key issues of deterrence x nuclear. On the other hand I expect more assets to be moved into the region, including allied vessels from countries like UK and France.

Marines and 82nd Airborne Division will most likely be used to help establish control of the disputed UAE / Iranian islands as such an escalation is a step below a ground invasion of “pure” Iranian territory. Islands will then be used to aid in an escort operation (early threat detection, surface-to-air missiles), in which a coalition of countries will participate.

Chances of success? That’s a topic for another deep dive, as is any prediction of round 3 and beyond. But these conclusions alone let us position on prediction markets with enough conviction.

Prediction Markets

Since I believe that both countries are ready to fight it out in round 2, short term ceasefire No position is the main one I am holding:

Considering that at least one Marines unit has an ETA of end of April, we can expect round 2 to last longer than round 1 (which lasted just over 3 weeks). The situation will be dynamic during that time and there are chances for de escalation, as well as escalation depending on the progress on both sides. Disclaimer: I also hold some longer dated No positions, however I bought them at the beginning of the conflict and for now I am comfortable holding them. Fair value of end of April ceasefire: 30% based on the current assessment, taking into account that the US might be quick to compromise in case of early failure in the escort operation.

Second market I am holding a position in is US forces in Iran by the end of the year:

I hold Yes on the end of year market, however I don’t like any earlier strikes as end of April is a tight deadline, considering some Marines will only then arrive in the theater. Fair value by the end of the year: 80%.

Lastly, I am still holding No shares on regime change in Iran by the end of the year:

I believe that the regime’s ability to continue the confrontation is a proof of its resilience. I will only reassess my positions once I see larger US troops mobilization that will suggest a wider ground campaign. For now there are no signs of that thus fair value of No is at 80%

There are no markets on outside militias, excluding the Kurds, to enter the war. If they appear, I would be inclined to get a Yes position as I believe some turmoil at the border done through proxies might aid US effort in round 2.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. It was an unexpected article, but Monday’s developments forced me to present a coherent framework before I can engage in the Strait of Hormuz analysis. I hope you enjoyed the piece and I’d be happy to discuss it with you here or on X. Don’t be afraid to comment, the situation is extremely complex and there are no bad questions.

Stay strong and see you soon!

From our point of view this screams escalation. Both PMs look like they tried to front-run Trump's address, expecting bad news.

With that in mind, let's look at prediction markets.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances remain stable at 36% and 52% for end of April and end of May respectively.

A lot depends on next actions from the US as traders expect either a quick operation, followed by an exit with a claim of victory or a major escalation that would indicate we have months of fighting ahead.

For now, the only good news is that China seems to have gotten involved in the peace process, which is probably why the Yes price remains fairly high despite hawkish messaging from the US.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but traders are still bullish we will see 20+ ships passing it in a single day by the end of the month.

It is in Iran's interest to resume traffic - for one, it (barely) sustains the global economy while imposing massive costs, but more importantly it affirms its control of the strait. And with each day passing, traders are less and less bullish on the US escort operation. Seems like the current consensus is some other type of operation that would give the US leverage over Iran:

Energy is flat due to the general uncertainty, however take a look at Urals price. It's way above Brent and WTI now, showing that Asian countries are keen on tapping Russian oil, as its composition (API gravity and sourness) is very similar to the Gulf oil:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for the US forces to enter Iran dropped significantly as traders were expecting an imminent announcement.

However, even more troops are moving to the region as we are awaiting Trump's address. It is a classic spike we see on all geopolitical markets. Traders are starved for a definitive information and any lack of momentum in the media immediately tanks the Ys price. That being said, the situation on the ground now is even more indicative of an imminent US action on the ground.

And everything points to it not being Kharg Island:

#4 Regional Expansion

UAE inched above Saudi Arabia in countries that are most likely to join the war, based on recent reporting on its willingness to engage and lack of rumors from Saudi Arabia.

However, both countries moved lower, most likely on lack of coordination from the US. Usually, the US was open when waging war and often it gathered a wide coalition of countries to give its action legitimacy. Trump operates differently, which often leads to alienation, unless others are forced to join.

We also see a general drop in regional escalation markets, however we believe the strong downward move is an overreaction of the market on confusing messaging from the US as ceasefire markets stayed flat:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Lastly, Iran regime fall market moved close to our fair value assessment as recent messages from the US indicate they might resign from their goal of regime change.

Maybe our message of Iranian resilience finally hit the White House. We wil nevertheless continue to monitor the situation on this market.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are awaiting Trump's announcement as well as the long weekend. We hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So let's see how the markets are positioned for the coming round 2.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire markets reacted as expected - we moved from 30% chance to 34% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April, significantly below last week's reaction.

Both sides remain far apart when it comes to demands and additional 10 days won't change anything. We know that the US is sending more equipment and troops for round 2 and while we know little about Iranian movements, their messaging indicates they are ready as well.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Iran now dictates who, and at what price, can pass the strait.

The market on 20+ ships passing in a single day moved significantly up, to 71% chances on the news that Iran will let 20 more ships through. However, it is unlikely they will pass in a single day.

This is confirmed by the escort operation market, where the price of Yes didn't follow the price action above:

Market expectations are laser focused on a ground operation now rather than a risky and complex escort operation. And prices of energy follow, with WTI closing above $100 for the first time since 2022 and the price of Urals inching above Brent as Asian countries try to tap in favorable types of barrels amid shortages:

#3 Boots On The Ground

As all signs point towards some kid of a ground operation, chances of US boots on the ground reached almost 80%, before dropping slightly on Monday TACO, only to end up at 75% hours later.

We now know that the US has over 50,000 troops in the theater, ready to deploy. It's now the direction of the operation that is unclear. For now, traders doubt it will be Kharg Island as the price action on the market is sideways for a week now:

#4 Regional Expansion

Another option for an escalation would be for either the UAE or Saudi Arabia to join in the fight.

Considering that these countries are the most hawkish in the region, it would be logical for them to join, especially so for the UAE, which could gain disputed islands in the process.

However, such an action carries risks. The Houthi have already joined the fight and in case of any escalation they can decide to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, as they did post October 7th. 28% feels a bit low for us in such a scenario. But the Houthi have other choices - there is an equal chance they will decide to attack Saudi Arabia on the ground:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Lastly, while almost every geopolitical market on Iran experiences volatility, the regime fall one is flat on any news lately.

It feels a bit repetitive, but it is a testament to the regime's resilience.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We expect to see the beginning of round 2 around Easter. The markets will be closed for longer, thus the Trump administration will have plenty of opportunity to calm them before the open.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we will focus on the main Iran-related markets and how they moved throughout the weekend. As usual, with proper context and analysis of traders' behavior.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

After the weekend, the ceasefire market for April 30 reached a new low while the end of May ceasefire ventured into a not likely territory with Yes price at 46c.

Over the weekend we heard a lot of news about some kind of a ground operation near Iran. Considering that the escalation of military operations works against any ceasefire effort, we saw an understandable move downwards.

Additionally, we've been saying here repeatedly that Iran will be highly distrustful about any negotiations with America alone. This approach is being validated now.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

We've moved to analyzing the end of April market as we are at the end of the month, and at first glance, we should be somewhat optimistic about the opening of the strait.

However, 20 ships is less than 20% of usual daily traffic and majority of that number, if achieved, will go through the Iranian route, affirming its control of the waterway. Thus we believe that if achieved, this development will be hawkish for the war rather than dovish.

Our approach makes even more sense when we position it against chances of a US escort operation by the end of April:

Considering all of the above, it is clear why energy prices are still going up, despite all the efforts to stop it:

#3 Boots On The Ground

US boots on the ground chances hit a new high of 79% by the end of the year on hawkish messages from the US.

By some estimates we now have around 50,000 US troops in the theater, ready to engage at a moments notice. It is still unclear what will be their mission; for now traders expect a Kharg Island invasion, but it's far from a given as it's been trading in the low 30s for a week now:

Additionally, there are little signs a wider ground operation, including some regional militias, will begin as chances for the support of the Kurds remain low:

#4 Regional Expansion

Starting today, we will also track regional expansion of the conflict as there are also chances the US ground operation will involve taking over some UAE/Iran disputed islands.

For now Saudi Arabia is a clear frontrunner in chances of an offensive engagement, however we believe that UAE is undervalued on this market. Their economy and image depend heavily on safety, and now their best chance is Iranian regime fall.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Speaking of regime fall, Iran seems to hold quite nicely as chances of their fall still hoover around 35% by the end of the year.

There is of course a lot of narrative peddling about how bad it is in Iran, but such an entrenched regime lives on more than hopium. They seem well-prepared for the conflict and there was not a single breakthrough suggesting Iran might fall anytime soon.

Wrap up

We are pretty much at the brink of the ground operation right now. The next phase of the conflict will most likely revolve around the Strait of Hormuz issue and we will track that closely. In the meantime we are also looking at Asia, where more measures are being introduced to soften the blow of the energy shortage.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are once again entering the weekend with escalation in mind, so let's take a look a the prediction markets to understand what the weekend can bring us.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

We are entering the weekend with ceasefire chances at 40%, the lowest level since Trump's dovish message on Monday.

It's the second week in the row in which Monday brought a significant rise in ceasefire chances, due to certain narratives being pushed, only to see hawkish developments in the subsequent days that bring the ceasefire chances down.

We are already starting to see that Trump's narratives have lower and lower impact on the markets, pretty soon we shall see the same on prediction markets.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as chances for 20+ ships to transit the strait in March dropped to the all time low of 11%.

For a few days now there are no news on any escort operation, thus the chance sof one happening remain flat:

The combination of the above sent energy commodities higher, erasing almost all the drop that happened on Monday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for the US boots on the ground rose slightly, erasing all the effect of ceasefire talk.

Outside of more soldiers being sent to the region, there are rumors in DC that we might see first boots on the ground this weekend. However, chances are the target might not be Kharg Island, this no change in chances there as the market stayed flat on the news:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Chances of regime change in Iran remain elevated, but flat on this week's news.

Dual track negotiations (kinetic + diplomatic) are ongoing, suggesting no regime change can happen anytime soon.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei's chances for staying in as the Supreme Leader of Iran dropped slightly below 50%.

Despite ongoing negotiations, Israel is still keen on eliminating senior Iranian leadership. However, we expect the new Ayatollah to be kept in a deep, safe place.

Wrap up

Since yesterday hawkish narratives are back. Ceasefire chances dropped again below 50% and US boots on the ground are more and more likely. All the while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and first Asian economies start to experience massive blowback.

We are entering the weekend with low expectations when it comes to peace. Rumors are, we should rather expect escalation and a big one. We will be watching closely.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Trump famously loves to escalate over the weekend as the markets are closed and he has 2 days to fix the narrative. Will it happen this time? We'll see, based on what prediction markets tell us.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Since yesterday, ceasefire chances dropped from 51% to 44%, making a resolution to this conflict less likely than not by the end of April.

Part of the move can be explained by continuation of the hawkish narrative in the media. The rest can be explained by no news on the diplomatic track. Ultimately, prices hovering around 50c indicate that there is still a lot of uncertainty, with clarity expected in the next 4 days.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

We are nearing end of March and with the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed, chances of 20+ ships passing the strait in a single day by the end of the month dropped to 14%.

Traders expected to see some headlines about either increased traffic that is approved by Iran or an escort operation. For now we have neither and the market is adjusting sharply to the reality on the ground:

With no progress on any issue, energy prices start to go back up:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US forces on the ground continue to rise after a Monday drop as recent hawkish messages include taking over Iranian islands.

Marines and / or 82nd Airborne Division would be necessary for such an action, be it Kharg Island (in plans, but seemingly less likely), or other islands, including UAE / Iran contested land:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Amid all the uncertainty the regime survival chances improved this week.

A recent small rise can be attributed to Israel eliminating IRGC Naval Commander responsible for the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, by now most traders realize that the Iranian regime is bigger than 1 person (or even hundreds of persons).

#5 Next Supreme Leader

For the first time since we started covering this market, Mojtaba Khamenei has more chances than not on staying in as the Supreme Leader.

Considering that the diplomatic track is now open, the US and Israel might not be willing to jeopardize any progress by eliminating the core of the current senior leadership. At least till the effort is being pushed, Khamenei junior might feel relatively safe. Relatively, because at least some factions on the US / Israel side might want to press on the regime change goals despite global blowback.

Wrap up

Since yesterday hawkish narratives are back. Ceasefire chances dropped again below 50% and US boots on the ground are more and more likely. All the while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and first Asian economies start to experience massive blowback.

From Australia where over 500 gas stations run out of diesel, to Philippines where national energy emergency was issued due to quickly depleting oil reserves and no obvious replacement.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

On the other hand, more and more military assets and troops are being deployed to the theater. Here we prefer to trust reality rather than statements from Trump who has been rather untrustworthy when it comes to ceasefire promises.

Traditional markets still tend to trust him though. But that can't be said about prediction markets, where while we have some volatility, the prices speak a rather coherent story.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to rise slightly this week. Traders cannot entirely discount Trump's statements.

However, the move has been rather muted as the price of Yes rose by only 10c. Considering how bullish Trump is on a month-long ceasefire to discuss his 15-point proposal, the end of April market should trade significantly above coin flip odds.

Same should be said about April 15th market, which for now trades at 38c. If anything, it's a testament to Trump's credibility.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed, however Iran has let some ships through (those ones that paid the fee).

That being said, majority of the ships are still stranded as even with a fee, ships associated with the US, Israel and any country that is seen aiding them in any way are banned from transit.

Keir Starmer announced the UK might help the US in the escort operation, but the market didn't really react to the news, understanding complexity of such a situation:

Amid all the situation, paper oil markets dropped significantly, partly due to government interventions into them (officials deny the rumors, but we know better):

#3 Boots On The Ground

Due to ceasefire rumors chances for US boots on the ground dropped by almost 10 percentage points, but since then rose slightly and stay at around 65%.

The ceasefire narrative is countered by more US military deployments to the region. Amid conflicting statements, the market is flat since the initial Trump announcement. We imagine traders are waiting for the weekend to understand what is really going on.

Kharg Island invasion market followed a very similar pattern:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iran regime fall is also flat since the news. There were no new developments to influence the market.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of staying in a the Supreme Leader of Iran continue to rise, reaching almost 50%.

His position is only strengthened by the negotiations narrative. He is being well-hidden and at least until the negotiations narrative is there, there should be no decapitation strikes directed at him.

Wrap up

Despite the recent developments the markets tell us that chances for the war to end are still slim in the short-term. Both sides are even further apart than before and Trump's message is calibrated for the markets, not resolution of the conflict.

There is no consensus building in the Washington at the moment, as indicated by conflicting moves - on the one hand we have Trump with his ceasefire narrative while on the other we have continually increasing deployments to the Middle East.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The message initially heavily impacted both traditional and prediction markets. However, shortly after Iran denied any negotiations taking place and the truth started to come out.

Ultimately we learned that some effort to negotiate is being made, but the key to Trump's message was to fold on his previous bluff. Additionally, the proposed 5-day window ends just as traditional markets close and first Marines unit arrives at the theater.

The markets quickly retraced the initial move, but we are left with an entirely new situation. Let's see how the markets settled after a volatile Monday.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire market spiked on the Trump announcement, but shortly after it retraced majority of the move, ending up only 4c higher than before.

Traders were quick to realize that the message is mostly hopium directed at traditional markets. The reality is that both sides are even further apart than before the war. Iran delivered on its deterrence threat and enjoys a better negotiating position than before.

At the same time Trump famously hates negotiating from a position of weakness. In our opinion traders were wise to discount the ceasefire talk as a mostly fabricated narrative to manage the markets.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed, even as some ships decided to pay the ransom fee to Iran to traverse the strait.

Ceasefire hopium only pushed the market marginally higher as traders understand that only a meaningful pause in kinetic action will encourage ships to try and cross the strait.

Ultimately chances of a single US escort operation dropped slightly on the news as in case of a ceasefire no escort would be needed and in case of no ceasefire the new reality is that the Strait of Hormuz issue is more difficult than the US is letting us believe:

In the meantime, the price of oil dropped sharply on the ceasefire hopium, but quickly retraced most of the move. Seems like traditional and prediction markets follow each other closely:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The whole ceasefire situation had impact on all Iran-related markets. And the one that took the biggest hit is US boots on the ground.

It may be a bit counter-intuitive as Marines are still on the way with the first unit arriving by the end of the week. But when we see such a lack of consensus in Washington (on the one hand ceasefire, on the other hand additional $200 billion for the war and Marines + 82nd Airborne Division mobilized), we can expect further disagreements even if ceasefire effort fails.

Thus also a slight drop in Yes price on the Kharg Island market:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iran regime fall market is an interesting study after the Trump announcement.

The US willingness to open official negotiations indicates that the regime is strong. It's an official confirmation that the US doesn't expect it to implode anytime soon. Thus the Yes price dropped significantly, and contrary to other markets, stayed lower even after bearish developments on ceasefire.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Iran's leader by the end of the year market is closely aligned with regime fall market.

Here as well Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of staying as the Supreme Leader increased and sustained the move. The reason is similar. Ceasefire effort, successful or not, suggests that the current leadership is well-entrenched and considered strong enough to negotiate with.

Wrap up

Despite the recent developments the markets tell us that chances for the war to end are still slim in the short-term. Both sides are even further apart than before and Trump's message is calibrated for the markets, not resolution of the conflict.

There is no consensus building in the Washington at the moment, as indicated by conflicting moves - on the one hand we have Trump with his ceasefire narrative while on the other we have continually increasing deployments to the Middle East.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Some countries I expect will issue COVID-style lockdowns to manage demand as we enter deeper into the conflict. General prospects are bad, to say the least.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

This week has been a real roller-coaster in the US.

Trump asked China to delay his meeting with Xi Jinping because of the ongoing war with Iran.

Comment: there are many theories on why the meeting was actually delayed. My opinion is that Trump does not want to negotiate from a position of perceived weakness - the US needs to open the Strait of Hormuz first.

Joe Kent, the national counterterrorism chief, resigned from his post in protest against the Iran war.

Comment: feels like a hot potato game where no one wants to bear responsibility for the current war in Iran.

Trump met with Sanae Takaichi in Washington. They discussed the current conflict and Trump made a rather inappropriate joke about Pearl Harbor.

Comment: Japan is hit hard by the current crisis. However, they have almost a year’s worth of reserves - they have the leeway to think strategically about this war and potentially help the US. For now though, there is nothing concrete.

Trump also threatened to deploy ICE agents to airports if congressional Democrats don’t agree to fund airport security, which is the part of DHS funding lapse.

Comment: it’s refreshing to see some domestic politics during this crisis. However, Trump’s threat doesn’t seem to make any impression on the Democrats as chances of the DHS situation being resolved soon tanked.

The Americas

While all eyes are turned towards Iran, there is a real crisis brewing on the western hemisphere.

Cuba’s electricity grid collapsed, leaving around 10 million people without power as oil embargo on the island continues. Also violent protests broke out in response to the blackouts.

Comment: another crisis is brewing ion the island that if mismanaged, can lead to Cuba becoming another Haiti. It’s not very likely in my opinion, but with the current focus on Iran, anything is game.

Despite the threat of sanctions, Russia signaled that it is ready to back Cuba, in opposition to Trump. Some tankers were also sent to the island, however none have reached it yet.

Comment: between internet issues in Moscow and Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, I believe Putin has more important matters to attend to in an effort to bolster Russian economy a bit. But it is arguably a decent PR move from him.

In a power consolidation move, Delcy Rodriguez got rid of Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the now ex defense minister regarded as top 3 powerful people in the country after Maduro’s kidnapping.

Comment: it can be power consolidation or a crisis in the making. Wee shall know soon if Lopez still has the power to challenge Delcy. For now her chances of staying are flat on the news.

Asia

With the Strait of Hormuz closure, Asian countries are the most affected and are already scrambling to limit the most severe consequences of shortages.

Sri Lanka announced its public institutions would no longer work on Wednesdays to save energy. Thailand encourages WFH and asks businesses to cut on the AC. Laos has supposedly 5 days of reserves left. And Vietnam cannot ensure het fuel availability beyond the end of March.

Comment: things are getting really dire in SEA and we can expect to see COVID-style lockdowns being implemented soon across the most affected economies.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war.

A lot has happened in the Iran war. Both sides continue the strikes, with some being extremely heavy as the one on southern Israel, near Dimona, that injured at least 160 people.

Qatari LNG facility was severely damaged, cutting 17% of capacity for the next 3-5 years, while South Pars facility in Iran was hit. Trump also threatened further strikes on the energy infrastructure if Iran does not open the strait by tomorrow. Iran threatened to respond in kind across the whole region.

Additional Marines units were deployed to the region, with an ETA around end of April. While they are en route, Trump is teasing Kharg Island invasion while complaining that no ally wants to help the US unlock the Strait of Hormuz.

The US and Israel continue to claim that Iranian capabilities are almost entirely destroyed, but the constant level of launches per day seems to deny that.

The Pentagon is also asking the Congress for additional $200 billion for the war in Iran. In the meantime Scott Bessent eased sanctions on Iranian oil to soften the blow to global energy markets.

Iran also launched missiles at Diego Garcia. They didn’t hit the island, but the action showcased Iran’s ability to target pretty much every European capital.

Comment: I made a whole video with commentary on the last week’s developments, I wouldn’t do the situation any justice, commenting here in a couple of sentences:

Israel is also continuing its invasion of southern Lebanon. Recently it destroyed Qasmiyeh Bridge, on the Litani River in the south of his country, warning that it was a prelude to a ground invasion.

Comment: Israel uses the situation to resolve the Hezbollah issue as well.

Europe

Europe also starts to feel the pressure from the Iran war.

European countries were told to lower its LNG refill targets by the EU to soften the impact of the Iran war.

Comment: Europe is also highly dependent on deliveries from the Gulf countries. It is the second most impacted region after Asia, and we can expect further measures as this conflict goes on.

Slovakia started fuel rationing to conserve oil amid Iran crisis.

Comment: as you see, it begins.

EU leaders failed to convince Viktor Orban to approve a 90 million EUR loan package to Ukraine as Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs to the Druzhba oil pipeline, which crosses its territory and was damaged in a drone attack in January.

Comment: I’m really curious to see the impact of Iran war on Ukraine war with Russia boosting revenue and Europe entering another energy crisis. The situation looks prime for escalation.

There was an election for the mayor of Paris, the last big election before the presidential election next year. Emmanuel Gregoire has won.

Comment: the Socialist Party candidate has won, he was expected to win since mid-January.

Business, Finance & Economics

Outside of all the force majeure clauses being triggered across LNG, oil and other petroleum-adjacent industries, we didn’t have any major news on business.

For now, everyone if focused on the price of oil, but price of all energy commodities is up a lot since the start of the war:

At this point the energy supply shock is a given and each day of the war brings closer the actual global crisis that could dwarf the 2008 GFC.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I will have my Strait of Hormuz thesis ready this week. Otherwise catch me either here or on X. Stay strong and see you soon!

Now the whole war revolves around the strait issue and we are on the sidelines, praying at this point that it can be resolved before the world is hit with irreversible depression.

Outside of praying though, the next best thing you can do is look on prediction markets to understand where we are heading.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire chances held steady over the weekend on confusing messgaing from Trump.

However, his recent ultimatum failed to produce any meaningful moves. Iran threatened to respond in kind vs caving in and opening the strait and now the ball is back in Trump's court. By tomorrow we will know if he followed through on his threat.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. In the meantime the price of 20+ ships moving through the strait in a day moved up slightly as traders felt a bit bullish on the prospect of escort operation happening:

However, for now no such operation exists, pushing oil prices only higher:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US boots on the ground in Iran continue to rise as additional Marines units are being deployed to the region.

We continue to maintain that the issue of the strait needs to be resolved at almost any cost, thus some kind of operation looks more likely by the day. And recent reporting suggests Trump's eyes are set on the Kharg Island, representing majority of Iran's oil export capabilities:

Even on such a tight deadline the chances are at 38% and rising!

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iranian regime survival chances stayed flat over the weekend.

At this point it starts to become clear that only a meaningful breakthrough on either side can significantly impact prices on this market. The fact that this is the case, only showcases Iranian resilience.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei continues to enjoy the Supreme Leader position and his chances of staying there by the end of the year are flat for the week.

Khamenei junior remains well hidden and expectations are that he will stay hidden as long as necessary. IRGC controls the country now and conducts the war in the decentralized manner.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. Prediction markets have almost fully priced in a prolonged conflict, now we are waiting for traditional markets to reflect that reality. You should also start to think on how a global energy supply shock affects your job, family and country as we can see the first impact on the war already. Per what we see on the markets, we are entering uncharted waters, full of chaos and uncertainty.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Not only a sign of conflict escalating, but also a real possibility of US boots on the ground. Neither has been overlooked by prediction markets traders as market reality starts to match on the ground reality.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to drop across all strikes. With additional deployments and ever-strong rhetoric on both sides it is hardly a shocker.

Additionally, the market no longer reacts to bullish messaging from both Trump administration and Netanyahu. Despite the latter's claim. that the war will end soon, the prices hardly moved. For us it indicates that the market is no longer hooked on hopium and is much more realistic about the current situation.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as Iranians introduce an option for transit for friendly ships.

The chances to see over 20 ships passing the strait in a single day sustained its drop below 20% as chances of an escort operation this month decreased to a new low of 18%:

An April escort operation is also doubtful with only 45% chances. In the meantime WTI prices continue to defy global markets and reality on the ground, staying between $90 and $100:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The market on US boots on the ground in Iran rose, indicating 68% chance by the end of the year and 56% chance by the end of April!

News on additional deployment had a major influence, but on the back of it there is a realization that this special operation cannot succeed without committing soldiers. Especially if one is aiming to invade Kharg Island for leverage:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

In the meantime the Iranian regime continues to show resilience and chances of its fall dropped to 38%.

Even amid IRGC spokesman assassination, traders are now fully aware the regime is more than its people, fully institutionalized and in control of the country. The pricing on this market must be in part based on chances of wide military operation on the ground, be it Israelis, Americans or the Kurds:

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Lastly, all these new developments had little impact on Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of staying as the Supreme Leader of Iran.

News about him died out after his initial statement, however we can expect to hear from him from time to time, as fuel for Iranian war propaganda.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. Prediction markets have almost fully priced in a prolonged conflict, now we are waiting for traditional markets to reflect that reality. You should also start to think on how a global energy supply shock affects your job, family and country as we can see the first impact on the war already. Per what we see on the markets, we are entering uncharted waters, full of chaos and uncertainty.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Iran is not afraid to escalate, understanding it can impose unbearable costs on the economy. So for the time being the costs are capped at the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is not much of a cup to be honest.

The situation remains dire so let's take a look at the markets to give us the updated forecast.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire chances decreased significantly since yesterday, settling for now at 33% for the ceasefire by the end of April.

The almost 10c fall is the result of the energy infrastructure targeting. While both sides seem to have established a red line moving forward, the escalatory sequence nonetheless impacted ceasefire chances.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed and this reality is slowly getting through to the markets.

Traders sharply updated their fair value assessment as chances of 20+ ships going through the strait in a single day by the end of the month fell by more than 10c. Combined with no change in escort prospects, traders must be increasingly looking for a performative escort, rather than a sustained operation bringing back a significant portion of traffic:

In the meantime the spread between different oil origins continue to widen. However, all types experience a dramatic rise, with WTI (US crude) being on the lower-end, also on the news of potential export restrictions. That being said, it dod little to curb short-term price increase expectations:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Yesterday's escalations also had an impact on US forces on the ground chances.

Traders fully understand that the longer the conflict takes, the higher the chances are for some US forces on the ground. Polymarket also did a great service adding end of April strike to the market, showing that traders see the deployment happening relatively soon.

However, traders don't necessarily think the first deployment must be Kharg Island:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

The escalatory mood also had some impact on the regime change market with chances of that happening dipped 1c to 43%.

It might seem counterintuitive, but all the recent escalations and possible US forces deployment coincides with increased missile and drone launches from Iranian side. And nothing speaks regime resilience better than increasing attacks 3 weeks into one of the most devastating air campaigns in history.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Lastly, the one market that experienced shocking stability is Iran leader by the end of the year.

Mojtaba Khamenei's chances are flat for the week, despite Larijani's assassination. It's been over a week since his confirmation as the Supreme Leader of Iran and the consensus now is that he will be protected.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. Prediction markets have almost fully priced in a prolonged conflict, now we are waiting for traditional markets to reflect that reality. You should also start to think on how a global energy supply shock affects your job, family and country. Per what we see on the markets, we are entering uncharted waters, full of chaos and uncertainty.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The experts increasingly sound the alarm as Asian countries implement the first measures to save oil and gas. On the other side there are plenty of pundits, or "plan trusters" as I like to call them now, who want to convince you that all is going according to the plan and you shouldn't worry.

Let us tell you something: look at the prediction markets and make your own decision. That's the most accurate forecast of the future you'll see online.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to be flat. The increasingly prevailing pattern now is that each bullish message elevates the chances and the spike remains semi-permanent even as bearish messages come.

Even the recent public refusal of any ceasefire negotiations from Iran had no impact on the price. Traders clearly tend to cling to bullish messaging from Trump. Very likely that alternative future is too difficult to stomach.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed with now only 31% chance we will see over 20 ships pass it in a single day by the end of the month.

This comes as hopes of any US-led escort operation this month evaporate:

In the meantime, the price of oil continues to be stubborn be manipulated in hopes to keep the markets steady long enough for escort operations to start:

#3 Boots On The Ground

US forces in Iran also remain flat as there is no news other than the marines unit crossing the Strait of Malacca.

Similarly there is no news about the Kurds, Kharg Island or any other boots on the ground type of operation. In fact, there is little news on what is the aim of this whole operation.

However, traders do see 26% chance of the US taking Kharg by the end of April. Quite a lot.

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances stay elevated after Larijani was assassinated by an Israeli strike.

BBC calls some kind of a crisis, but recent wide decapitation strikes showed us that the regime is more resilient than 1 person (or a 100). It's a country of 90 million people with a regime that had 47 years to entrench itself. It did.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Despite the killing of Larijani, Khamenei junior chances of being the Supreme Leader by the end of the year stayed flat.

Traders are expecting Iran to protect its leader even more now to send a proper message to the world. First and foremost an ideological leader, Ayatollah is important for all the Shia muslims around the world. Due to that, the US might not be that keen on eliminating him, seeing that Khamenei senior's death achieved little to no effect.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. At least until the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved as now ceasefire chances are below 50% for end of April strike.

Make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

It's a general theme of this conflict due to the simple fact that we are already forced to bear the cost of this war. Inflation and shortages will be a thing anyway at this point so why point our attention to it now?

At least we have prediction markets to help us with understanding where we are.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Even prediction markets can't escape a little hopium. However it was not Trump's speech, but a rumor from Barak Ravid that pushed the ceasefire market to 41% chance by the end of April.

Iran was quick to deny the rumor, but the elevated chances stayed with us, at least for now. Recently, the market has been quicker in correcting fake narrative pumps and we fully expect it to do so here as well.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

There was one important point in Trump's speech and it was that there are still no countries (at least in an official capacity) that agreed to assist with Strait of Hormuz escorts.

The market on the number of crossings in any day this month lowered chances for the lowest bracket of 20+ ships to 32%. But the market on US escorts took the biggest hit:

However, despite there being very little chances of any US escort this month, with oil flows completely disrupted, crude oil is still stubborn at around $90 per barrel, with forecasts discounting a bit the high volatility it saw yesterday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The market on US forces on the ground dipped slightly, to 61% chance by the end of the year.

The slight decrease comes as there is still no clarity on length, intensity of engagement, as well as desired end results. Since March 14th, the markets is moving sideways as traders are trying to form fundamental theses on the war.

In line with US forces on the ground, the market on Kharg Island invasion is flat:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

The market on Iran regime fall is also flat since yesterday.

This comes even as rumors of Larijani death started to circulate around the internet. One of the top figures in the regime, believed by some to be more pragmatist due to his philosophical mind and interest in western philosophy, even his demise did not force the market higher, showcasing regime resilience in real time.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Finally, since the weekend Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of survival as the Supreme Leader increased significantly.

As the rumors of dissent died and regime continues to exist and resist the US and Israeli strikes, traders started to price in a reality in which Khamenei junior will be well hidden, outside of missile access and steering the country through fatwas, while allowing IRGC to further consolidate their power.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. At least until the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved as now ceasefire chances are below 50% for end of April strike.

Make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

With growing fears of a global supply shock, it is now clear that the whole confrontation hinges on the control of the Strait of Hormuz. The next few weeks will be decisive for both sides, but it is still difficult to say what will happen after that, regardless of the outcome.

But let's see how the markets changed over the weekend to look for some clues.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

In a week we moved from over 50% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April to only 35% chance today.

Despite almost complete lack of war footage, it became clear that before anything can end, the Strait of Hormuz issue must be resolved. Rumors from the administration also confirm that neither side is ready to begin any talks. Some issues must play out on the battlefield before diplomacy has any chance.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

However, traders are not optimistic about any prospect of travel through the strait in the short term. But even when we are talking about a single escort for PR purposes, the prospects remain bleak, amid not so willing allies that refuse to engage:

Despite rising, chances are still well below 50%. Mostly the effect of strike date rather than anything else. After all, the US already claimed that at this moment they are not ready to escort any ship and implied was that we must wait for the additional resources to arrive in the theater.

In the meantime, they try to manage the rise in oil price, but the risk to the upside is only getting larger:

#3 Boots On The Ground

With the marines unit on the ay from east Asia, traders started to price in higher chance of US forces entering Iran.

Initially there were rumors of US forces being necessary to secure Iranian shoreline in order to open the Strait of Hormuz. However, more recently, traders are also looking at possible deployment on the Kharg Island. The island holds symbolic value as Iran's top spot to export oil; symbolic, because Iran has other ports and infrastructure, some outside of the Persian Gulf, to export oil.

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Amid all the chaos, the Iran regime fall market gained slightly as traders try to balance the risk of a prolonged conflict with regime's resilience.

In our view it will prove to be a shaky and volatile "balance" as each battle and each breakthrough has a potential to upend the entire conflict.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Khamenei's chances of staying in as the Supreme Leader decreased slightly over the weekend as rumors emerged he might be critically wounded and even in Russia to undergo a surgery.

However, Iran's foreign minister dismissed these rumors, claiming that the Ayatollah is safe in Iran. What is the truth? We might not find out anytime soon, but the fact that Mojtaba Khamenei is essentially hidden form anyone's eyes at least suggests that they are protecting him. At most, it could suggest that it is the IRGC that now controls main centers of power in the country.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The prospect of a global energy shortage is a stark one for everyone, including the US. While it won't feel the first order effects of the closure it is sure to feel second and third-order effects.

Remember, the global economy is extremely interconnected and complex. In fact, we may not know it, but something might be already broken, and any reopening might already be too late.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire Yes prices continue to drop across all strikes; the effect of not only theta decay, but also the US sending a clear message that they are looking for a prolonged conflict.

Trump believes he has plenty of time to do whatever is necessary in Iran. The goals are still surrender and regime change. But the viability of the war special combat operation hinges on the US ability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Traders actually started to give a little faith to the US ability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as it is now safely 5c higher than ceasefire price on the same strike.

The US is now saying it's been planning for such an operation for months, but we highly doubt it. The closure being so quick and effective must have surely shocked them as there are still no assets that are ready to escort even the most essential cargo. At the same time we are learning that Iranian missile and drone capabilities might be more extensive than previously thought.

Maybe oil fill finally get the memo as once again all the risk is priced in the upside:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Somewhat shockingly, amid all the new rumors, the prospect of US forces on the ground fell to 55%.

Even amid calls that US troops might be necessary to secure the Strait, some traders don't see it as likely. However, the drop is not significant and we are generally still at the same level since the beginning of the week. And same can be said about the Kurds, who are out of the conversation for now:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

The prospects of Iranian regime fall stabilized at the pre-war level.

Such a pull-back suggests that traders understand the high-intensity strike campaign, combined with decapitation strikes failed to produce fractures in the regime. This is also the prevailing message we get.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

After a small divergence between the two numbers, the chances of regime survival are now aligned with the chances of Mojtaba Khamenei to remain as the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Our understanding of these 2 markets combined is that traders no longer see the US or Israel doing decapitation strikes. They proved to be largely ineffective when it comes to regime fall.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

In our view, social media companies also comply with these governments and aid them in taking down unauthorized footage. Information warfare is also part of the game and both sides are trying to control the narrative.

Prediction markets are trying to solve for it, but be vigilant - they can also be manipulated. Price analysis needs to be more in-depth.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances stabilized at 48% after Trump's Monday press conference.

When we look at traders, we can see sharps either firmly on the No side, or holding a neutral portfolio across strikes while trying to profit off ceasefire rumors ie. hopium. It reflects both the lack of visibility (neutral positioning) and a tendency to see the conflict as prolonged.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Visibility might have got hurt first, but the real risk is in the damage to the global economy.

Here, the prospects are rather stark. When we analyze the market along the ceasefire one, we see that they are priced identically. It's clear that traders see a ceasefire as the only way to fully resume traffic. They are pricing in 0% chance the US will be able to otherwise secure full traffic.

At the same time, oil markets started to once again show way more risk to the upside:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US forces on the ground remain flat, as we continue to hear they might be necessary to ensure American victory.

This market cannot go any higher, unless we see a dramatic fall in ceasefire chances. But ultimately, one of them would need to give. Flat price on yet another market strengthens the claim that traders are waiting for a breakthrough - either a military one or a political one.

And at this point we can be pretty sure it won't be these guys:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Surprisingly a similar pattern is visible on Iran regime fall market.

Here, even bullish news on the regime resilience didn't impact the price. The reason is simple - the US is fully capable of toppling this regime and if this war continues they will achieve it eventually. Thus this market is also dependent on the consensus view on the ceasefire.

For now there is more uncertainty than anything, but pretty soon it must change.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei continues to have better chances of survival as the Supreme Leader than the regime for some reason, but we can't have 100% efficient markets.

However, it does indicate that the market believes he will be protected and not as easily targeted. Especially since we learned he is seriously injured. It's probably safe to assume that IRGC is still running the show. And it should mean more escalation based on what we saw in the last 2 weeks.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

With so many unknowns, only markets can show us a reliable picture of the future.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The markets have erased the entire enthusiastic rise in Yes price after Trump's speech on Monday.

We are now back to sub 50% territory when it comes to the end of April deadline as once again traders are looking towards a prolonged conflict.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while Iran has supposedly started laying mines.

However, the news seems to have hardly moved the market. The expectation of closure lies around insurance cost, risk to cargo and sailors not willing to cross fearing for their safety. And considering the main threat comes from drones, mines seem like a minor issue, especially since the US has the tech to find and neutralize them.

Additionally, with 45% chances we won't see the traffic return to normal, there's definitely some government market manipulation going around as traders priced in massive volatility in the future price of oil:

#3 Boots On The Ground

With the focus now on the Strait of Hormuz, the US forces on the ground market continues to trade around 60%.

There is no news regarding boots on the ground, however any prolonged campaign would likely include some. Senators are already talking about such a possibility. Especially after the Kurds declared they wouldn't take part in the fight:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Regime fall chances stabilized at 34% by the end of the year.

We stopped hearing of high-profile assassinations; in part because most of the senior leadership has already been assassinated. Those who are left, along with the replacements, are decentralized and in hiding. Chances are they won't be the point of focus anymore as it became clear that the regime is far more resilient than anticipated.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei continues to be the favorite to lead Iran by the end of the year, with only 35% chances of doing so.

The prices have stabilized on the market, however we are shocked that Reza Pahlavi is so expensive on this market. Trump has repeatedly said that he doesn't see him as the next leader. Reza himself also said his home is in the US now. Hard to be a Shah after such words.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

On top, I’m back to making videos this week with, you guessed it, Iran commentary. And lastly, this week’s paid piece will go over the Strait of Hormuz: the issues, the second and third-order effects and the actual possibility of opening it.

That’s it when it comes to personal updates, now straight to the global outlook.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Iran war has put every other headline out of the top of the news pages, but it doesn’t mean we didn’t have any worthy developments.

Kristi Noem is no longer the head of the Department of Homeland Security. She was replaced by Markwayne Mullin after Trump was supposedly not impressed with her testimony in front of Congress after the Minnesota killings.

Comment: after the shitshow in Minnesota someone needed to be sacrificed and there was no better candidate than the head of the DHS. Now we are wondering who will be next, with Pam Bondi, Pete Hegseth and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor) in the most danger:

We had early primaries in Texas, where we had at least a few surprises. In Senate, GOP’s Cornyn and Paxton are headed to a May runoff while Democrats nominated Talarico over Crockett. In House races, Gonzales advanced to a runoff amid an affair scandal and Crenshaw lost to a more conservative challenger.

Comment: we are seeing early surprises in the primaries, however it looks like wrong foreign policy decision and focus on international affairs over domestic problems will have bigger impact on the overall race.

DOJ released another batch of Epstein files in which Donald Trump is accused of sexually abusing a minor.

Comment: I’m hearing that the Trump accuser is not exactly trustworthy, but the situation is surely far from good for Trump.

The Americas

In The America, my eyes are turned towards Venezuela as any issues there would send Trump and GOP on the downward spiral.

Maria Corina Machado pledged to return to Venezuela, however Delcy Rodriguez is far from welcoming. Additionally Machado seems to have no support from the White House or the Congress.

Comment: I believe that the Venezuela “opposition” is dead. They had years to prepare for the moment and when it finally came, Machado was out of country and her whole movement failed to produce even a single event, let alone victory. No strength, no influence:

Mark Carney called for Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor to be removed from Britain’s line of succession for his actions revealed as part of Epstein files disclosure. King Charles removed his titles, but Andrew is still eight in line to the throne and Britain’s monarch are also Canada’s head of state.

Comment: Andrew is going down as the sacrificial lamb and Carney is kicking him on top.

American special forces are supporting troops in Ecuador in a military operation against drug trafficking sites. They are there in an advisory role, not participating in raids.

Comment: the western hemisphere is still a priority.

Asia

Asia is the primary region affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This week was not that eventful, but the next few weeks ahead will surely prove different.

China set a GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5% at the National People’s Congress.

Comment: It’s the first time in decades the growth target is set below 5%. Despite the numbers being fake anyway, China is feeling the heat from the global power rivalry.

Dozens of people were killed in Pakistan amid protests against the US attack on Iran. Notably, people were tryin to storm the American consulate in Karachi, the biggest city in the country and de facto economic center. American marines stationed there opened fire, although it is not clear how many of the casualties can be attributed to them.

Comment: Pakistan has large Shia minorities that are aligned with the Iranian regime. It is a divided country, considering it officially has a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy.

Speaking of Pakistan, they have an ongoing conflict with Afghanistan. Pakistani and Afghan forces clashed on the border and Pakistan targeted Taliban infrastructure.

Comment: it started just before the Iran war and there is non-zero chance it can spill over and combine. Just another volatile part in the highly volatile region. And Pakistan has nukes + a treaty with the Saudis…

Balendra Shah is looking to win the Nepal election after preliminary results showed his Rastriya Swatantra Party victorious. Ex-rapper is set to be the first PM of Nepal after Gen Z protests toppled the previous government.

Comment: it will be interesting to see the direction Nepal takes after the revolution.

Middle East & Africa

Iran… there is a lot to unpack here.

I don’t want to spend too much time here as I also write daily briefs on the war now (look at Adjacent News if you want to get them to your inbox), but some things need to be said.

First of all, the regime still stands. Second of all, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Third, the new Supreme Leader of Iran is Khamenei’s son, even more radical now and endorsed by IRGC. Fourth, Gulf countries are hurting a lot; from reputation to oil infrastructure to desalination plants. Fifth, Israel is getting hit as well, showing that after a week of intensive air campaign, they still have plenty of missiles and launchers left at play.

On the other hand, Iran is getting hit hard. Tehran is literally burning. Oil and water infrastructure was also hit. Whole senior leadership was killed. Artesh navy was obliterated. Forced into decentralized Mosaic Doctrine, their attacks are disorganized, diminishing their effectiveness.

Iran is definitely losing the war. But ironically, they might be winning the negotiations. They are imposing high costs and the fight is, in a sense, more even than expected.

Volatile weeks are ahead of us, and if you want to read more about the Iran war and its prospects, here’s my latest piece on it.

There is also high chance Eritrea and Ethiopia will go at it since their whole neighborhood is engaged in fighting.

Comment: Ethiopia is landlocked and potentially stronger and can use the fact that everyone is busy to carve out something for itself.

Europe

We heard very surprising news from Europe this week.

Talks on Ukraine peace have been suspended amid the Iran war situation.

Comment: Putin is not interested in ending the war at the moment as global conditions currently favor him and his energy exports.

Macron made a dramatic speech in which he announced the expansion of France’s nuclear arsenal and proposed to offer some European countries a nuclear umbrella. He also announced a new nuclear-armed submarine by 2036.

Comment: France is looking to take the military leadership of Europe. While Britain is trapped outside of Europe and the US and Germany is economically weak with an even weaker military, it is France that is looking to fill the vacuum the US is leaving.

British police arrested 3 men on suspicion of spying for China. One of them is the spouse of Joani Reid, a Labour MP.

Comment: imagine how worse it will get with the new embassy.

Iceland announced its referendum on resuming discussions to join the European Union will be held on August 29th. Polling is split; the country began negotiations in 2009, but suspended them in 2015 in a worry for its fishing industry.

Comment: Iceland can be an important country thanks to its access to the Arctic Ocean, it may benefit from an EU membership in these uncertain times.

Business, Finance & Economics

And some more bad news from the world of finance to wrap things up.

Unemployment in the US rose to 4.4% in February as employers cut 92,000 jobs.

Comment: the economy is hurting and now we are looking to add a supply shock to the mix. If you ever had advanced macroeconomics then you know how bad it is. And if you didn’t then let me tell you that it could get really ugly and there will be no economic tool or policy to prevent it or fix it quickly. I wish good luck to Kevin Warsh.

BlackRock capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a private credit fund.Shareholders requested to withdraw $1.2 billion (9.3%), but the firm capped it at $620 million (5%).

Comment: from my exposure to private credit funds in my previous life these are some really risky deals; there is a reason someone turns to private credit. The reason is no bank is willing to finance whatever they want to do.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. Stay strong and see you soon!

Markets took that as a signal that Trump still cares about it going up and complied. For now, as it becomes increasingly clear that no easy off-ramp exist.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Since yesterday, chances of a ceasefire rose sharply, before falling somewhat down. They still remain elevated vs Monday, at 54% before the end of April.

All because Trump seemed like he wanted to TACO, only to follow with a conflicting statement... The whole speech was somehow peculiar as Trump proceeded to contradict himself every other sentence. Ultimately, it seems that he is laser focused on keeping the markets steady.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite a coordinated disinformation campaign, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.

There is also this neat little dashboard that helps us track movement through the strait. Oil continues to be extremely volatile; first it reached over $110, only to drop below $90 after SPR release tease, ultimately to end at $89 at the moment of this writing. However, traders on Polymarket moved from pricing in new ATHs to pricing in volatility as a move down to $80 is now more likely than a move to $105:

#3 Boots On The Ground

For a week now chances for US forces in Iran continue to fluctuate between 60% and 70%.

The market remains a bit confused as we constantly hear conflicting messaging. The fundamentals are clear, however: the longer the Iranian regime stands, the more likely boots on the ground are. Especially since we no longer expect the Kurds to join the fight:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

As the Iranian regime continues to show resilience, the chances of their fall are quickly being repriced.

Despite almost zero visibility on the current strikes, the word on the street is that the launches from Iran have increased and there is no indication the US or Israel will be able to stop them soon.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

As ceasefire chances rose slightly, so did the chances of Mojtaba Khamenei to remain as the Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of they year.

Many expect the US and Israel to target him, especially after Trump's not so favorable comments. There are also rumors Khamenei junior might be more radical than his father and more aligned with the highly ideological IRGC. Conclusion: the fight is on.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

On the ground, Iran continues to strike Gulf countries, including now desalination plants as in Bahrain. At the same time Iran is getting badly hurt with joint US-Israel strikes that have recently targeted oil reserves near Tehran, creating an ecological crisis you can see on the title photo.

Read on if you want to understand where we are headed!

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

After initial optimism regarding a swift ceasefire, traders now no longer see it as likely by the end of April.

Trump continues to double down on the conflict, now demanding an unconditional surrender. However, Iran continues to say and show that it is ready for a prolonged conflict, aiming to impose outsized costs on team west (and the whole world to be honest).

Recent flat trend on the market suggests that traders want to believe in a fast resolution, but pretty soon, if no major breakthrough is achieved, the April market will experience decay as well.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as the market is now on the brink of satisfying the Yes criterion of at least 80% traffic reduction calculated as 7-day moving average.

Even Trump's reinsurance program might be not enough to resume traffic. Not only is $20 billion not nearly enough to make insurers at ease, but also the real risk is in sailors not being willing to cross as the risk to. their lives has nothing to do with insurance.

So oil continues to climb and even the teased SPR release won't keep it contained for too long as traders now see more chances of oil above $140 than of a ceasefire by the end of the month:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances of US forces on the ground in Iran continue to climb as Trump teases a special operation to retrieve the highly enriched uranium from the country.

As the special combat operation drags on, chances are boots on the ground will be a necessity rather than an option. In fact, it seems that there will be no other option if Trump really wants to achieve regime change. Especially since the Kurds denied to get involved for now:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

As days go by, traders are also less and less bullish on the prospects of a regime fall.

The regime surviving the initial decapitation strikes made people realize that no Venezuela scenario is possible. In fact, it seems that the power was swiftly consolidated in the new hands.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

The regime has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the deceased leader, as the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

It is a really bad news for Israel and the US. Not only did the new leader lose his entire family in recent decapitation strikes, but also he is rumored to be natively more radical than his father. Additionally, he is perceived as an IRGC-backed option, further consolidating the power in the hands of the highly motivated and ideological revolutionary force.

However, traders see his chances of surviving till the end of the year as slim with only 32% allocated to him on the Supreme Leader at the end of 2026 market.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We continue our war focus as we believe that it poses significant risk to global economy. At the same time the visibility on the developments in the media is limited due to fog of war.

We believe that prediction markets offer unparalleled access to information in these difficult times, informing stranded tourists, businesses and governments on the most important issues, including ceasefire, Strait closure, oil prices and more.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire chances have somehow stabilized in the last 24 hours.

We believe the stabilization has more to do with lingering uncertainty, rather than any neutral / positive developments towards peace. On the one hand we have unfolding energy crisis, but on the other hand the reported missile strikes from Iran continue to subdue as the US and Israel continue their bombing campaign, targeting launchers.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The effective closure of the Strait continues while Polymarket criterion for resolving the market to Yes (80% traffic reduction in the 7-day moving average).

We are starting to hear various reports on second-order effect industries that are starting to feel the pressure of the closure. From copper to fertilizers to helium, the potential ripple effects are uncovering.

In the meantime, we are seeing new highs in the price of oil. Traders now see 62% chance we will break $100:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Long-term chances of US boots on the ground followed the path of ceasefire prices. However, short-term prospects spiked as we hear more talks of just that in the media.

This is a repricing of the escalation path. It is no shocker considering the intensity of the ongoing campaign and the costs it is imposing on the global economy. At the same time, the Kurds are being pressured by the US, but their resistance makes traders a bit less confident:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

The market on the Iranian regime fall is aligned with long-term ceasefire chances.

It represents 2 options: no ceasefire when regime collapses due to a civil war or a ceasefire with a new regime. However, as we progress, we should get more clarity on which option is more viable, which will decouple the trend.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

We continue to await the news on the new Supreme Leader as the internal struggle between the Ayatollahs and IRGC supposedly continues.

Now also Trump went in as a player in this struggle as he proclaimed he needs to be involved in choosing the new leader of Iran. A statement strongly suggestive of doubling down on the initial goals of the special combat operation.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

There are also rumors of an American F-15 being shot down over Iran, however a successful rescue operation supposedly managed to extract the pilot. We are awaiting the official confirmation of the action.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Chances of a ceasefire continue to go down on the markets.

Despite initial optimism, traders are turning bearish on the prospects of a quick war as the Pentagon is looking to conduct an operation for at least 100 days. On the Iranian side there are operations supposedly taking place to ensure the government's resilience in the prolonged conflict (whatever that means).

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as we enter another day with traffic down 90%+.

Despite the market being in the active dispute process, we are surely near the point in which the 7-day moving average of traffic is down 80%+. This affects both countries and oil&gas companies, which continue to trigger force majeure clauses. Some countries like South Korea or Japan face shortages in days to weeks while Bangladesh started to implement measures to save fuel.

The forecast for crude oil remains unchanged:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US forces to enter Iran dramatically increased as we await the confirmation of the rescue mission.

At the same time, there are rumors that Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio are clashing over the issue of US boots on the ground. There are also rumors of Kurdish forces already entering Iran, however for now they remain unconfirmed and there is no official US support yet. The market remains flat, but continues to see it as likely:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

The market remains unchanged when it comes to Iranian regime chances of survival.

This market feels like a resultant of the above markets, pricing in ceasefire chances, US boots on the ground and Strait of Hormuz closure time. However, the resulting coin-flip odds only show how volatile the situation remains.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

We are hearing both rumors of Khamanei's imminent confirmation, as well as some opposition voices trying to derail the process.

Supposedly, the IRGC is pushing for a quick confirmation in order to try and consolidate power in the country after Khamenei senior's death. We can expect the US with Israel to try and further derail the process, as they did when they bombed the assembly recently.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Thankfully, we have predictions markets to help us understand key risks around the war. It's especially important now to differentiate between propaganda and truth so let's see how the markets price current risks.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Starting with a ceasefire, traders started to price in at least a few weeks of fighting.

Trump is doubling down, claiming that Iranian's want to talks, but it it too late. At the same time Iranian comms also claim there is nothing to talk about and they are ready for a prolonged campaign.

However, it is constant developments on the ground that make any immediate off-ramps more and more unlikely.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Prediction markets are also reacting to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While the market is currently in dispute, it is indisputable that the traffic through the Strait is close to zero.

At the same time, oil is rising steadily, now projected to reach close to $90 before the end of the month. However, the more impacted brent is already at $84 and rising.

#3 Boots On The Ground

Markets also think it is increasingly likely we will see American boots on the ground eventually, giving it almost 60% chance by the end of the year.

It is clear that you can't achieve proper regime change without boots on the ground.. However, there is an option in the short-term - rumors are that the Kurds are being enrolled to march on Tehran. Traders price in 63% chance we will see an official announcement by the end of the month!

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

With all the chaos, traders remain unsure about the future of the Iranian regime though.

The fall by the end of the year is priced as a coin-flip, indicating uncertainty rather than a fundamental assessment of the situation. Because despite all the strikes on the Iran's capital, the regime still looks resilient to strikes alone.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Lastly, it seems that there is a front-runner for the Supreme Leader position.

Rumors are that the second eldest son of deceased Ali Khamenei is to get the position. He seems to be confirmed alive after the strike on the assembly, putting him in as the obvious favorite. A good indication of the short-term resilience of the regime.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Additionally we have first reports of Israel army invading Southern Lebanon while the Lebanese government looks ready to declare Hezbollah illegal. However, the main point of interest is still US-Iran conflict.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The market is still looking for a quick ceasefire, however they are no longer as optimistic about March.

Several comments from both the US and Israel indicate that both are ready for weeks of fighting. At the same time Iran is not responding to any ceasefire attempts as they believe they can impose more costs on the US.

We are as much in the dark as yesterday.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Contrary to the name, this market is more about the effect of a closure, rather than a declaration.

For it to resolve to Yes, a 7-day moving average of traffic through the Strait must decrease by at least 80%. However a definitive declaration combined with insurers denying coverage makes traders more confident that the Strait will be effectively closed.

#3 Boots On The Ground

Trump and Hegseth didn't rule out sending US forces to Iran, briefly spiking the market Yes price to ca. 70c, however trades remain cautious as many expect a ceasefire by end of June.

In reality, Trump cannot limit his options as the situation is dynamic. But a 40% chance of US forces in Iran by the end of the year is a sign that at least some traders don't see a quick resolution.

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

The initial bullishness on the Iran regime falling is slowly subduing.

The market started to realize that IRGC is a resilient and entrenched organization as we continue to see sizable strikes from Iran despite a wide array of leaders being eliminated in the initial days of the conflict. Pretty soon, trades will need to think about possible off-ramps - then some markets might get violently repriced...

#5 Next Supreme Leader

With the regime still standing, trades also aligned on the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

For now, Alireza Arafi is the main contender as he was named the interim Supreme Leader. However, he is closely tracked by other strong contenders, deeply connected through family ties with two previous leaders.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

From ceasefire to WW3, we are here to bring you up to speed with most recent developments in one of the most risky global events in years.

For now, Iran continues to attack countries in the region in an effort to bring the whole region down with it in case US x Israel don't stop the attacks.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Despite early optimism, the market now projects there will be no ceasefire at least till the end of March.

Footage from the ground as well as comments from world leaders suggest that it will take some time for the fight to end. Iran is currently attacking in a decentralized manner, something that supposedly has been in the works since the last conflict in 2025.

Looks like traders are slowly realizing that with each hour, each missile and drone, the conflict will be tougher to contain quickly.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Market on the closure of one of the most important straits in the world is currently extremely volatile.

There is no official closure of the strait, however ships are mostly waiting after a few tankers were hit and insurers started to deny coverage. Additionally Maersk has suspended all traffic through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The situation continues to be volatile as markets and traders think about long-term consequences of the war. For now though oil markets seem to have stabilized, with brent just below $80 per barrel.

#3 Boots On The Ground

As the situation spirals out of control, trades try to assess the possibility of US boots on the ground.

However, for now it seems unlikely we will see American soldiers on Iranian soil. Despite early casualties, for now airstrikes are the preferred method. In case of no deescalation soon, we might see the price of Yes rising though.

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

After the news of Khamenei's death hit the headlines, market surged on the Iranian regime fall.

But now traders are starting to see that thanks to previously mentioned mosaic defense, combined with deeply entrenched IRGC, the regime might be more resilient than previously thought. Tomorrow we might see the Yes price significantly lower depending on the next 24 hours.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Contrary to early thinking, Khamenei's death didn't derail a succession process as the Ayatollahs are in the process of electing a new leader.

However, the information coming from Iran is sparse, partly due to ongoing strikes and partly due to a total internet outage in the country. Earlier it was said that Alireza Arafi will be the next Supreme Leader, but then rumors started to emerge that he was eliminated in strikes on Tehran.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But outside of global politics, today we focus a bit on business, both AI and entertainment, as well as some niche local politics in Germany with the market as our guide.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Tense Weekend

The market on US strikes on Iran by the end of the month shot up after non-essential personnel from the US embassy in Jerusalem was advised to leave.

However, it is still short of an official evacuation, when the departure is mandatory vs voluntary. What we can see is that not only people, but also traders are anxious and any news, dovish or hawkish, produces outsized movements on the market.

For now, the Omani foreign minister is due to arrive in Washington as well as technical talks between the US and Iran are supposed to start on Monday in Vienna.

#2 Anthropic Struggles

After we thought it died down, the Anthropic x Department of War drama continues, inducing massive volatility on Hegseth to ban Claude market.

After 2 massive spikes, traders are now at 30% chance the ban will happen. All fueled by Anthropic's CEO refusal to drop AI safeguards. One could say that losing government contracts is a massive loss for the business, thus traders mostly refuse to believe that's how it will end. Sometimes a little drama is necessary to align.

#3 Total Capitulation

In an unexpected announcement, Netflix refused to enter into a bidding war and Paramount's superior offer is the only one on the table now.

There can be plenty of reasons to walk away - from a wildly inflated valuation to internal issues at Warner Bros. that were uncovered during due diligence to Netflix deeming the whole thing inconsequential in the long run. But one thing is certain - Paramount bought itself a chance to challenge Netflix in the streaming department.

#4 Niche Election

We also have an interesting movement in the German Baden-Wurttemberg election, where Greens are poised to take the lead.

After these 2 polls (here, and here) dropped last night, traders that were once sure of the CDU victory, no longer felt as confident. We are no experts on German local politics, however a potential Green victory in the environment where AfD is poised for more gains on the national scale is a shocking development.

#5 No ChatGPT

After a brief spike to the high 70s, the market on ChatGPT 5.3 release is now clear - February is not the month.

Turns out that all of the rumors and all of the insiders were just simply fake. The thread on Reddit speculates that the next release window should be around mid March based on the previous cycles, but there is no confirmation from OpenAI for the time being.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But outside of the world of global deals, today we cover some market inefficiencies and errors with Ukraine war and US embassy in Venezuela as examples + we take a look once again on Clarity Act and Hegseth vs Anthropic drama.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Crucial Conversations

As the talks in Geneva began, the market dove 6 points as a token of good will.

We are sure no one in the room is live trading the talks so we expect this is someone trying to front-run potential bad news. Generally, unless the news hit before we publish, we shouldn't expect massive progress, but rather a constructive meeting with mildly positive outcomes as a base case.

In such situation, the market should stabilize in the low 50s.

#2 The World Caught Up To The Reality

Polymarket Russian aggression markets have a one flaw - they are based on ISW map, which is sometimes updated with a significant delay.

That was the case with Pokrovsk market. Based on reports, the city has been under Russian control since January, however only now the ISW map has been updated to reflect that reality.

#3 A Niche Catch

We initially believed that this market was resolved in a wrong way as no news outlet reported the reopening of the embassy.

However, it turns out that Marco Rubio announced it during his Caribbean trip. Someone surely made a good catch as even we struggled to find the relevant info, but it does show that some markets can resolve on mere mentions by state representatives, that can be hard to track if you are not watching them live.

#4 Back In The Game

After a massive spike down, the market is once again at 69% chance we will see Clarity Act signed into law this year.

There is some news of dubious quality that reports Democrats scrambling before the March 1st deadline, and there is BTC price movement that some traders try to tie to Clarity Act insiders. But ultimately it does seem that the whole move down was rather unwarranted and the market just corrected itself back to the prices from a few days ago.

#5 Noise

Lastly, yesterday we covered Pete Hegseth being rumored to want to ban Anthropic in the Department of War due to their safety terms.

However, the market seems to have overreacted to the rumors. The dramatics are usually followed by closed-door negotiations and now we are aligned with the market when it comes to fair value. News, especially from the Trump administration, often create confusion and volatility before market can find a new equilibrium.

And sometimes, this equilibrium ends up being exactly the same, as was the case with the Clarity Act market.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Regardless if it’s true or not, this is business dealmaking in a nutshell. There are parties who think of working together and they need to gradually open their cards so the business goals are aligned. However, in both cases, emotions also play a role as they define the course of the negotiation.

Now, Iran and the US are on the “first date”, and one can say it went pretty well. The goals are somehow aligned (they agreed on the scope of the agreement, ie. on what goes in and what is out) and while they mingle (flex their militaries) they are discussing a serious relationship (drafting of the agreements). But can they get serious? Or will the mingling evolve into hostilities?

I fancy myself a good matchmaker, so let’s see if this relationship can work.

Most Are Looking In The Wrong Direction

My X feed, mainstream media, my friends and my neighbors - there is one thing that connects them all. They all focus on the military buildup, on the next massive airlift, on when is the next strike. See it for yourself - here are two markets. One on the deal possibility and one on the strike possibility:

The difference in volume between these two events is staggering. Over $400 million traded on strikes and just under $0.5 million on the deal. And it makes me wonder.

War is part of politics; it’s a tool for achieving goals vis a vis other countries. War is not a goal in itself. Regime change can be. Or destruction of military/nuclear/oil facilities. But none of these are the goal. Plenty of geopolitical analysts (example here) are struggling to figure out what the massive military buildup is for, while they should pay attention to how the deal talks are progressing.

The force is there as leverage. It is there to show Iran that the US is willing and ready to pay a high price to cause pain to the regime. If the deal fails, there will be a significant kinetic escalation. Not to do regime change, or eliminate Khamenei, but to cause pain.

The threat of pain must be significant. Iran has previously opted for the pain, as always it was able to weather the storm and continue unbothered. Thus the massive buildup, Iran must believe that the US is ready to collapse the regime and deal with the consequences to deliver the kind of concessions needed to make a deal.

And the demands are high, because of Israel. They’d rather go to war with Iran and deal with the consequences, but they know they can’t do it on their own. They need the US for such a big operation, but the US is really unwilling to commit at this point. So the compromise here is max demands on negotiations.

I covered almost everything in this situation brief, but 1 issue: Trump is the foreign policy president. He was and is looking to fix America abroad to make it prosper domestically. To continue selling his agenda, which is becoming increasingly hard as the top priorities abroad are unresolved and domestically the situation is far from stable (between migration issues and COL crisis), he needs two major wins ahead of the midterms:

1. Iran deal to end the Middle East primacy in foreign policy.
2. Ukraine peace to show he can deliver.

And yes, I know that usually foreign policy doesn’t win elections. But then, what choice does Trump have? He can’t fix inflation, migration or lack of GDP growth (outside of AI data centers) in 6 months. He needs to sell a story, eg.: “I settled everything major abroad in 2 years, now, unbothered, with massive tariff revenue (sic!), I will fix America.” - you know the drill.

Now that the thesis is laid out, let’s focus on the deal. How can it look like? Can they come to an agreement? And what if they don’t?

The Deal

The Mechanics

Let’s start with the obvious - the US and Iran are in conflict. It’s not a kinetic war, but it is a conflict. Iran is a threat to the US and allies due to having an ability to create a nuke, its large arsenal of ballistic missiles that they produce in-house, proxy funding and open threats that it issues regularly. It’s not necessary to get any deeper into the story.

On the other side the US penalizes Iran by applying sweeping economic sanctions. They are aimed at weakening the regime gradually, due to economic deterioration and to make the development of the nuclear weapon and ballistic missiles more difficult.

Thus any kind of deal is a de-escalation deal - an economic warfare ceasefire. A step back on nuclear capabilities should come in tandem with some kind of sanctions relief.

However, there is a lot of nuance there. The US cannot allow for a significant sanctions relief as then Iran can easily default to funding proxies in the region. But it needs to be a meaningful gain for the regime as otherwise, there is no use in negotiating.

But let’s take a step back here. We know that any deal with Iran is a difficult feat.

The Structure

I believe that Trump will default to his favorite style of an agreement - a tiered one. Since his inauguration the deals that are being pushed in difficult situations include phases. We start with phase 1 - easy points that the parties can agree to - and proceed to put every other issue in phase 2 and subsequent phases, where details are to be discussed post phase 1.

These are terrific deals for a politician as Trump can claim he solved the whole issue with one deal. But they are horrific when it comes to real tangible effects, because phase 2 can be reached rarely, if ever.

Anyway, since there is no goal to achieve with a military force, besides inducing pain, Trump and his team will proceed with the tried and tested framework, and will get really creative to make it happen.

USA: Minimum Viable Concessions

It’s a bit pointless to try and develop the whole agreement - we can expect most controversial issues like ballistic missile program or proxy funding to be loosely mentioned as discussion plans for subsequent phases of the deal. But regardless, phase 1 must include a win for the US that is undeniable. Example: a 60-day ceasefire in the beginning of 2025 between Israel and Hamas. It was obvious from the start that the proposed framework is not going to last, but a ceasefire itself was enough of an achievement to appease the American public.

Similarly here, we also have issues, that if resolved, would be enough to present the whole case as a win. This issue is nuclear weapon threat. All the rest can be collectively put in subsequent phases (which will never come).

What Nuclear Negotiations Really Are About

There is no way to get rid of the know-how. Iran, for the foreseeable future will have the technical ability to make a nuclear bomb. Similarly to any country that has a civilian nuclear program. The key issue to negotiate is allowed enrichment level, which directly translates into breakout time.

The JCPOA capped enrichment at 3.67% which translated to 12 months of breakout time when Iran would decide to dash for a nuclear weapon. Currently Iran is sitting at ca. 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, in theory making the dash possible in days to weeks.

We can be sure that the US wants to lengthen this time, but we do not know by how much. Trump is reported to want no enrichment on Iranian soil, however last talks in Geneva supposedly opened a way towards some enrichment as long as Iran can prove is for peaceful purposes only.

Thus we can say that the old 3.67% rule is back in play as it also aligns with civilian use - this level of enrichment is necessary for nuclear power plants. But there is also trust to build. The US under Trump 1 left the JCPOA and imposed harsh sanctions on the regime. Mullahs responded by enriching uranium to shorten the breakout time and here we are.

Any new deal must include diluting the highly enriched stockpile as a starting point - a trust building exercise. Then there is the issue of monitoring, number of centrifuges, etc. But neither really shows that the program is purely for civilian purposes; after all Russia still supplies 100% of fuel to the only nuclear power plant in Iran.

In my opinion, if Iran really wants to have a deal, they should present a roadmap to supplying that fuel themselves, including for the nuclear plants they are currently building. Can they promise it? I know that there is a memorandum of understanding between Russia and Iran that Iran is supposed to replace Russian fuel at some point. However, Russia still insists on being the sole supplier as it’s their tech (ie. the whole power plant) and they contractually need to ensure operationality.

But then, the second round of Iran-US talks was in Geneva, on the day of US-Russia-Ukraine talks, for a reason. Supplying their own fuel is the only realistic way to prove the program is for civilian purposes only. And Russia might go for it as they don’t want Iran to collapse, they need Iran to remain in team east, but they don’t want them to have nukes.

Iran: Realistic Expectations

The Islamic regime is in dire straits. Economy is in shambles, water supply is tight and inflation is tearing through people’s savings. Iran needs sanctions relief and it needs it fast.

I believe that Iran will opt to propose a framework, in which it will get increasing sanctions relief for achieving certain milestones: from diluting the highly-enriched stockpile, through allowing inspections, to proving that the program responds solely to nuclear power plant needs + small amount for research purposes.

Unfortunately, sanctions on Iran are too complex to analyze which and how can be lifted. However, the question of sanctions is mostly focused on injecting Iran with cash and a worry about what will happen with it. Israel will be extremely opposed to any deal that injects Iran with cash to finance proxies. But the reality is that any concession towards Iran, will make the regime richer.

Here the situation depends on how creative can Iran get in drafting the clauses, but here are some better (and worse) ideas:

1. No one is expecting the US to largely lift financial and oil sanctions. But they can create an optionality mechanism: if Iran wants to, it can sell on international markets, but revenue from sales will land on a special escrow account. Then money there can only be used to purchase goods from pre-approved vendors. Then these restrictions might be loosened with time, as Iran proves its nuclear program is purely for civilian use (milestones).
2. The US can propose a barter deal, similar to one Iran probably has with China: the US will purchase Iranian exports, but not for cash. In return the US will send various pre-agreed goods that will allow the regime to prop up the economy, with the array of goods expanding as Iran proves the program is civilian only (milestones).

Both these options are just my creativity, but they come from a very simple point of view. Iran needs to appease Trump, and buying American is one sure way to do it. Ultimately Iran understands perfectly that neither team west nor team east want it to have nukes. But if it can leverage the current negotiations to secure a better deal with the US than with China, they will. Why not? If the situation changes somewhere down the line (and it will), they can always exit the agreement and pressure to renegotiate with new leverage.

At the same time, the US is also interested in cutting China off of cheap oil supply. They want to see Iranian oil on global markets, only not when it means it gives the Islamic regime money to finance proxies etc.

Prediction Markets

Ultimately it is a delicate and complex process. For me this update was not about figuring out how the deal will look like - it was a mental exercises aimed to understand if one is even possible. It is.

We also understand that both parties will be better off without a kinetic showdown. The US risks getting dragged into a prolonged conflict with a difficult enemy on a scale not seen in decades. Iran risks a collapse the moment revenues are not there for IRGC. Or water. Or pharmaceuticals. You see the picture.

Stakes are high for both parties, on the US side we can add the midterms to the mix. Trump, facing defeat, can stomach a lot of risk and a lot of concessions to get the deal done. Simply because strikes might end GOP’s weak chances of winning the midterms.

Thus I am still holding No strikes shares on end of February market. I also started to add on March 15th market and will slowly roll over my positions:

I believe that the negotiations will take quite some time. It’s a delicate and complex process after all. My overall assessment is that we have 60-80% chance of a deal and inversely, 20-40% of a strike somewhere down the line should the talks fail. However I am heavily discounting my Kelly allocation due to high uncertainty. Once we learn more, I will zero down on a precise fair value and increase sizing according to a more aggressive Kelly discount.

I also hold some end of June, but mostly end of year Yes shares on a deal being made:

I like longer timeline better as we have very little visibility on the process. Depending on the complexity of the deal, we might run a bit outside of June 30th window.

Additionally, I believe that Khamenei out market offers an interesting addition, as even in case of strikes, even when they would be directed at Khamenei, chances are he will be able to survive:

Thus I also hold some No shares on these markets, with a skew towards shorter term as it offers better APR. You are welcome to check my positions on my profile any time.

Wrap up

I want to highlight one more thing. Remember that media space, both mainstream (eg. Axios) and social, are currently filled with propaganda. Israeli officials are pretending to leak important info that in reality is a simple warmongering as it pushes their cause. People inside the administration are also arranging leaks according to which faction they belong to. Trump is doing his classic of strategic ambiguity when speaking to media. The Trump admin might also push the warmongering narrative to make Iran believe they will strike. In short, there is a whole lot of noise in the space, but very little actual signal.

It’s no shocker that in such an environment people want to focus on the tangible, ie. the military movement to the Middle East. And that might be exactly what the US wants. It reminds me of survivorship bias a bit as there also people turned attention towards the wrong thing:

Stay strong and see you soon!

I’ll be watching it to catch some clues about Trump’s thinking and depending on what will be said, I might do a commentary video on it! Stay tuned, and in the meantime see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It was a defining week for Trump presidency and some of the developments continue this week.

SCOTUS ruled that IEEPA tariffs (the blanket ones) are in fact unconstitutional, cancelling them and opening path towards refunds. However, shortly after the decision, Trump proceeded to set new blanket tariffs of 10% under Section 122, only to increase them to 15% less than 24 hours later.

Comment: the tariff ruling was expected and it is clear that the Trump administration was ready with a solution. What is a bit shocking is that SCOTUS left the door wide open for refunds and rumors are that the first lawsuits from companies are in. Trump is in a bit of a pickle now, since voters will be extremely angry they paid the tariffs and now the companies are getting refunds.

Secret Service shot dead Austin Tucker Martin, a 21 years old male, carrying a shotgun and fuel as he breached Mar-a-Lago. Trump was not there at the time.

Comment: people are struggling, the political division is at all time highs so sadly we can expect such events to happen.

Britain’s energy secretary Ed Miliband and Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, signed a clean energy partnership promising to share technology and attract joint investment. Octopus Energy, a British green power group, pledged to invest $1 billion in Californian renewables.

Comment: seems like Gavin Newsom is testing the waters for his presidential campaign.

Trump directed the US government should release most files on aliens and UAPs. This comes after Obama claimed that aliens are real during an interview, however he later clarified that this is only his personal opinion, rather than something he saw as the US president.

Comment: while many people are hopeful, I don’t believe we will see an definitive proof of non human intelligence in these files.

The Americas

Wherever Trump turns his attention, the region explodes with developments shortly after. Americas are no different - once scarcely mentioned in the Global Outlook, now they are a premiere feature of this weekly article.

The US carried out 2 strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in the eastern Pacific + one more in the Caribbean, killing 11 people.

Comment: I don’t see these strikes as either a solution or something that has outsized impact on drugs coming to the US. I think they are done mostly for narrative purposes at this point + to deter anyone who would think of resuming shipments through this route.

Mexican army killed El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. It is know as the most violent cartel in Mexico. The death resulted from a shooting between the army and the cartel, during an operation that aimed to capture the leader.

Comment: chaos ensued as the most violent gang is looking for revenge. I see this as a major escalation, I do believe the US had something to do with the operation, and now the market in US involvement is extremely volatile:

Greenland declined Trump’s offer to send an American hospital boat with medical supplies after Trump made a post on Truth Social claiming that Greenlanders are not being taken care of.

Comment: I would classify it as rambling.

Another Conservative MP defected to the Liberals in Canada, making it likely that we will see a Liberal majority in the parliament.

Comment: we have 3 upcoming elections that if won by Liberals, will allow them to have the majority without snap elections. Exciting!

Asia

After shocking elections results, it was a fairly quiet week in Asia.

India signed a deal with Brazil on rare earths, hoping to lessen the reliance on China. Brazil has a quarter of known rare earths reserves globally.

Comment: it’s a blow to China surely, especially coming from Brazil, which very recently was leaning towards China vs the US. Trump effect?

Yoon Suk Yeol, the ex-president of South Korea who led the failed insurrection was sentenced to life in prison.

Comment: prosecutors wanted the death penalty, but if you ask me, I’m not sure what is worse.

Middle East & Africa

I don’t need to tell you that it was a tense week in the Middle East.

The US and Iran held the second round of talks in Geneva, during which they agreed on the scope of the agreement. Today, Iran is submitting its draft of the agreement, but there is no news on the proposal from the US side. Regardless, both countries will meet again on Thursday in Geneva.

Comment: I’ve written extensively on the topic, to the point that I’m not planning any more updates at this point. In the last one I laid out my full thesis, based on the full month of researching the current situation.

Armed forces loyal to Sudan’s government said they had repelled an attack by the RSF on El Tina, a town on the border of Chad, which the militia had earlier claimed to have captured.

Comment: I don’t have much to say about this conflict other than that it is a proxy conflict and the US should step in here and resolve the dispute between KSA and UAE.

Europe

I wouldn’t say it was a big week in Europe, but something has happened for sure.

The same day US-Iran talks happened in Geneva, US-Russia-Ukraine talks also took place, also in Geneva. And reports from them are rather bleak - Zelensky was even quoted saying that the talks have collapsed and the country needs to be ready for another 3 years of war. But ultimately, more talks are in plans.

Comment: Trump will really push this topic and we can expect a culmination point somewhere around June, after which we will either get a ceasefire or a total exit bby the US.

Speaking of Ukraine, it accused Hungary and Slovakia of blackmail. The two countries threatened to cut off supplies of electricity in response to Ukraine’s failure to resume transporting Russian oil to them.

Comment: just political games… especially on the eve of war anniversary and incoming Hungary election.

The European Commission is looking to delay the ratification of the trade agreement with the US, due to Trump’s new 15% tariffs.

Comment: every occasion is good to discredit Trump in the midterms year, Europe will do what it can to stop Trump from fully implementing his agenda.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the ex-prince, was arrested by police in Britain on suspicion of misconduct in public office. It appears that he shared sensitive details with Epstein when he was a British trade envoy.

Comment: the sacrificial lamb.

Business, Finance & Economics

Lastly, some interesting news from the entertainment industry, coupled with an update on mining.

BHP, the world’s biggest mining company by market cap, reported stronger than expected half-year results driven by increased demand for copper.

Comment: copper is crucial for energy infra that needs to be upgraded and expanded in pretty much every major developed country.

Warner Bros. is restarting talks with Paramount after the company has sweetened the offer several times. Now Netflix needs to up their bid.

Comment: and now the real (business) war starts. This is a fight for entertainment industry dominance and both companies have plenty of cash to spare. Things should get really interesting here.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I’m still mulling the next deep dive topic, but I’m looking to play some SOTU markets tomorrow so you can expect a small update from me in that regard.

In the meantime stay strong and see you soon!

But leaving yesterday in the past, today we focus on the new. One bit, that seems to be the recurring motive, is AI - we are seeing so many new models and applications that we dubbed February the month of AI.

Outside of tech though, we showcase movements on Iran market, give an update on Thai politics and track the bidding war between Paramount and Netflix.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Talks

The market on Iran has been bombarded by conflicting information for weeks, but it finally started to show signs of surrender.

The Yes share price dipped significantly after the SOTU as it became clear that any action can happen only when talks fail. It is now clear that both parties will do their best to reach an agreement, on Thursday and likely on subsequent meetings, however long-term markets are not very optimistic about avoiding strikes.

#2 AI Wars?

AI has become crucial in many industries and war is also one of them. And when it comes to wars, some rules don't count.

And it looks like Anthropic will learn that lesson the hard way. On the one hand it is the best model on the market currently. On the other hand, its focus on safety creates issues for the Department of War which, well... is looking for LLMs to help it with killing adversaries.

the market is now leaning towards Anthropic being banned from the Department of War, after media reports showed that Hegseth is pressuring Anthropic and threatening cutting ties with the company.

#3 Quick Turnaround In Thailand

After an initial surprise in Thai election, the market realized Thai bureaucracy tends to be slow and despite a clear coalition emerging, it put only 25% chance we will see a new prime minister by the end of March.

However, rumors hit the media that the electoral commission might confirm the election results today. In such case, the official negotiations to form a government may start and since the previous ruling party managed to win the election, everyone expects an easy and quick process.

#4 The Month Of AI

February has been full of AI news, new models and new applications. And now the market tells us we might see another model by the end of the month.

Everyone has been expecting to see ChatGPT 5.3 soon, but the market had only ca. 30% chance it will be this week. However, since one of the top holders of No switched sides to Yes on February market, price moved significantly indicating we now have 52% chance to see the model live by the end of the month.

#5 Paramount Flipped Netflix

After reports that Warner Bros. is entertaining Paramount's new offer, the market has now the latter as the favorite to acquire Warner Bros.

There is no news since we last reported the rumor, but it seems that traders see the switch as an indication that the tide might have turned for Paramount. However, we still expect Netflix to fight and make a new offer. After all, the winner might end up with the most extensive library of TV shows and movies available on streaming.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Trump's preferred deadline of June is looking particularly bad on prediction markets, but maybe the next 3 months will bring some change.

But moving closer to day-to-day matters, today we take a look at SOTU, Mexico and the world of finance, which has its own share of dramas this week.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 SOTU

SOTU is today and while many are trading mention markets, there is one ex-Representative who might be insider trading his own appearance.

George Santos went to X to fuel speculations about his attendance on SOTU. And some comments suggest that he might be swing trading the market. After all, it wouldn't be the first con of his.

#2 Chaos In Mexico

After an explosive Sunday, markets are no longer projecting a US anti-cartel intervention.

Media outlets are reporting that after the initial wave of blockades, arsons and shootings, calm is prevailing. However, the authorities still hold the son of the dead kingpin and the cartel might want to "teach the government a lesson" - in an especially difficult period, between the Iran buildup and FIFA World Cup.

This might not be the last time we are mentioning this market.

#3 Citrini Effect

One of the biggest investment Substackers, Citrini, has published a long-term AI bull thesis that is, well... even more bearish than any bear thesis before him.

It is a quite entertaining read, if not a bit over the top. But what is even more shocking is that it appears his piece might have significantly moved the market, eg. preventing SPX from hitting 7,000. Amazing times we live in.

#4 ZachXBT On A Mission

Crypto internet went wild after a known scam investigator teased a massive expose of insider trading in one of the most profitable crypto businesses.

Prediction markets followed swiftly, and after some comments in which ZachXBT tempered expectations a bit, traders see Meteora as the culprit. Pump.fun was initially pushed as the most likely business, but Zach's comments suggested it is not one of the very biggest players.

#5 Fight For SpaceX

The market ended u split on which bank will lead the SpaceX IPO.

Today's news is that the IPO might be coming in this year and target up to $50 billion in a raise, making it the biggest ever. It is certain that most, if not all of the major investment banks will be involved, as no single institution can or is willing to underwrite that much risk. But recent rumors definitely spooked Morgan Stanley bulls, who bet on the long-standing relationship the bank has with Elon Musk.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The end of February is looking especially packed, even for 2026. Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Game On

Fresh from European Monday morning, Iran has supposedly delivered its version of the draft of the agreement and the market is 84% sure we will see another US-Iran meeting this week.

Optimism comes on the back of the meeting being set for Thursday and both side being cautiously optimistic during their media appearances. Additionally, we are awaiting Modi's visit in Israel on Wednesday and Rubio's visit on the 28th, pushing the likelihood of strikes down.

#2 SOTU

This week is also special as we are due to hear the first State of the Union address by Trump in his second term. An event especially popular among prediction markets traders as it invites mentions market experts, election modelers and geopolitics sharps.

We expect the peak frenzy to hit tomorrow, but in the meantime we already have interesting movements in the "Who will attend SOTU" market, where George Santos's own X post fueled speculation that despite being banned from Congress, he might attend the speech.

#3 Out Of Control

Markets on US anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico experience massive volatility after El Mencho, the head of the feared Jalisco New Generation cartel was killed in an operation that was looking to arrest him. He was badly injured during a shoot-out between his forces and the Mexican army.

The killing was followed by a massive response from the cartel members, with some Mexican cities being described as looking like war zones. Some traders must believe that the US military might be needed to stabilize the situation ahead of the FIFA World Cup.

#4 Issues

After Ripple CEO expressed his optimism for the Clarity Act to pass, the chances on Polymarket sharply dropped, from 80% down to 43%.

The market is reacting to rumors that the negotiations over the act are stalling in the Senate, with yield being the main point of contestation.

#5 Another Delay

Artemis II was supposed to launch in February, but a failed wet dress rehearsal pushed the date towards March. Now, despite the markets being bullish on end of March deadline, we are looking for April as the next possible month.

A failure in the helium flow forced NASA to once again postpone the launch and after the first week of March, the next window is only in April.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of the extraordinary (and wars...), we take a look at crypto regulation, measles situation and the Winter Olympics, where medal podium has clarified.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Tensions

We are approaching the weekend, but the market, after a wild week, is looking more stable than ever.

Trump is back to issuing ultimatums, which can mean we actually are waiting for Iran to draft their version of the agreement to see if there is any way to strike a deal. And derivative markets are great to understand volatility on the underlying market.

#2 Aliens Confirmed?

Between Epstein, Iran and Ukraine, Trump decided we do not have enough issues to focus on - so he decided the US government needs to declassify all files related to UAPs and other potentially alien phenomenons.

However, the market is not sure it will bring the disclosure everyone's waiting for. There is a long way between showing documents of an unidentified object and outright claiming that non-human intelligence is here.

Ultimately, there is a part in each one of us that yearns for aliens to be real, isn't there?

#3 Regulated Crypto Industry

A topic close to our hearts, the market now thinks there is 78% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year.

It's a massive act regulating most aspects of the crypto industry. It probably has as many backers as opponents, depending on what is your idea of crypto. However, in our opinion, regulating the industry was the only viable path long-term.

#4 Measles Update

As February approaches end, the markets also converge on the amount of measles cases in the US this month.

With 8 days left, we can expect around 1,128 cases by the end of February (YTD), while annual forecast is well above 5,000 cases. It's a shame though that Metaculus stopped their monthly respiratory outlook.

#5 Clear Situation

Lastly, as we approach the end of the Winter Olympics, the gold medal podium looks set: Norway, USA and Italy, which breached 80% chance it ends up in the third place.

We are not avid watchers of these Games, but we assume plenty of you are. Any sports you recommend in the last 2 days? Let us know in the comments.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Maybe the mood will cool a bit after today's Board of Peace meeting. But while we wait for that, see what else happened across politics, finance, technology and sports - and there were plenty of volatile markets.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Strikes, But Where...

While everyone is watching and discussing Iran, the US is striking somewhere else.

Close by, there is a market on US strikes on Somalia; and now traders see between 14 and 17 strikes, more than every other dah this month. The US is conducting an operation there against ISIS, but with tensions elsewhere, it flies a bit under the radar. Especially now, when the rumors on Iran strikes are mounting:

#2 So It Happens

The market is increasingly bullish on the prospects of charges for at least one person related to Jeffrey Epstein.

The move is most likely fueled by Congressional hearings, most recently the one of Les Wexner. Between us, there must be enough incriminating material to charge several people, but if we were to guess, the DoJ might be waiting till it's closer to midterms to flush out some of the most prominent names among the perpetrators.

#3 A Relationship Turned Sour?

The market knew that Elon Musk has a long-standing relationship with Morgan Stanley when it comes to high finance, but they might have missed the bigger picture here.

SpaceX is a massive IPO - we are talking trillions in enterprise value. Whatever size is the raise, it is surely in the tens of billions; an amount no single bank is willing to underwrite. Thus it hit the news that Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan (so the big 3) are expected to lead jointly. The market is then supposed to resolve on the order of the banks presented in the prospectus, which prompted Goldman Sachs to rise rapidly.

#4 AI Wars Continue

Rumors are we will see the new Gemini model today and so the AI wars on the markets continue.

We've been reporting on the model's imminent release for quite some time now so it is hardly shocking to see it. What is more shocking is that it is still Google, now joined by Anthropic, who fight for the top spot. OpenAI may be close, but benchmarks are simply worse, while Grok 4.20 has been a disappointment thus far.

#5 Olympics Update

Winter Olympic Games are slowly coming to an end and the leaders on each market start to clarify.

While Italy is still in the second place, the last days of the Olympics are looking good for team USA. Are you a fan of any winter sports besides hockey? Let us know!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

That being said, we have a nice selection of sharp moves from the last 24 hours, from geopolitics to sports.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Unintended Consequences

The Abraham Accords market has been in a steady decline ever since the first signs of protest in Iran, but only now the Yes price took such a violent hit.

Despite there being 2 countries ready to sign the Accords (Kazakhstan and Somaliland), the reality is that there will be no signing ceremony for either of these 2 countries, especially when there is a possible war with Iran coming soon. Strange that it took so long for the market to recognize this reality.

#2 Cheap Shots

Peter Magyar appeared in all the major papers after he revealed that a sextape starring him might soon be released.

The opposition leader in Hungary claims that Orban's government did a honey-trap operation on him back in 2024 in an effort to discredit him when needed. The dramatic video suggested the release was imminent, however 6 days later, it seems his last minute hailmary worked.

Or it was a clever way to get himself globally recognized. We'll see.

#3 How Soon We Forget

It feels like ages since we heard about the daycare fraud scandal in Minnesota and traders seem to be discouraged about progress.

But as it often happens in such cases, months of investigation are needed before any indictment can be issued; while one inefficiency of prediction markets are long-dated markets that require traders to lock money for a significant period.

#4 AI Wars Continue

Just a day after Grok 4.20 launched, the Yes price of Gemini 3 successor launch by the end of the quarter spiked.

There are no news to push the price, but considering how short the release cycles are right now and that OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI, all released updates in February, Google needs to keep up and also release a new, better version.

Especially since Chinese models are right behind American ones.

#5 Handicap Markets

We have a new type of market on the Winter Olympics, and while it shows the Norwegian lead is safe, it showcases a growing number of derivative markets.

In an effort to expand the offering we are seeing different niche markets (like GPU rental prices) and derivative markets (eg. Nothing Ever Happens) - handicap, while pretty much exclusive to sports, is a new addition.

And while we are not very keen on sports markets, it is great to see the space develop.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to the new week! Today the focus is on Iran and Ukraine as politicians gathered for Munich Security Conference to talk big words. Supposedly they were talking Greenland behind closed doors, but the real talks are only tomorrow in Geneva - both Ukraine and Iran will be discussed.

We have plenty to comment on, get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been a busy week in the US with many events having major repercussions for the future. It’s also been a very strange week on Polymarket.

The US government entered into a partial government shutdown over DHS funding negotiations. It is looking to be at least 10 days long as Senate take a break.

Comment: it is no shocker that Republicans and Democrats fight over the DHS funding, as this is the department responsible for curbing migration and deporting illegal aliens. We can expect these negotiations to be hard as Trump is trying to figure out his strategy for the midterms. What is also shocking here is this Polymarket resolution, that happened only because the website use as the sole information source for a resolution was not updated. Markets probably should have secondary sources to avoid such situations.

Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, announced the end of the immigration agents operation in Minnesota after more than 2 months. Homan said the operation was a great success.

Comment: it was anything but a success. Public opinion has turned even more against Trump, 2 Americans are dead and migrants are still largely in the US. Amid the DHS funding negotiations, Trump needs to find a better and more compelling way to deal with illegal immigrants. Can he do it though? I’m not sure.

Howard Lutnick admitted that he visited Epstein’s island with his family in 2012 in a congressional hearing.

Comment: as it is more and more obvious that Epstein was a fixer, more and more high-profile people are implicated. Lutnick shouldn’t really be pressured to leave the administration, unless a more direct evidence of his wrongdoing emerges.

FAA closed and then proceeded to quickly reopen skies over El Paso in Texas as Trump claimed that cartel dornes breached American airspace. But other sources said it was a test of anti-drone technology.

Comment: the move surely made some of think US action on Mexican cartels is coming soon, but the fast reopening prevented any large market swings. And despite strong rhetoric, I am aligned with the market odds here:

In a symbolic gesture, the House of Representatives voted in favor of ending the national emergency that Trump invoked to impose tariffs on Canadian imports last year.

Comment: even if it somehow went through the senate, Trump would veto it and that’s the last we’d ever hear about the issue.

Trump is repealing the Environmental Protection Agency’s “endangerment finding”, a scientific judgment from 2019 which stated that greenhouse-gas emissions pose a risk to public health. The ruling has allowed the government to regulate eg. car emissions.

Comment: everything and anything to find the nuggets of growth as supply chains struggle.

The Americas

It was also an eventful week in the Americas as Trump’s agenda for the western hemisphere takes shape.

Air Canada cancelled all flights to Cuba after the country said it would not be able to supply international airlines with aviation fuel. The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade on the island.

Additionally, organizers indefinitely postponed Cuba’s annual cigar festival, previously used to raise funds for Cuban healthcare system, due to the fuel blockade.

Comment: Cuba will fall, it’s just a matter of time.

American forces seized 2 tankers in the Indian Ocean that had carried Venezuelan oil. The US is still controlling who Venezuela can send oil to.

Comment: it’s mostly performative at this point.

Mark Carney supposedly held a positive conversation with Trump after POTUS threatened to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Ontario with Michigan. Carney pointed out that Canada paid for the construction of the bridge which used American steel.

Comment: Trump will toy with Canada as trade deal negotiations approach (USMCA July 1st renegotiation).

CK Hutchison threatened legal action against Maersk should the firm take control of two ports at either side of the Panama Canal - after last month’s supreme court case, the government said a Maersk affiliate would temporarily take over the management of the port.

Comment: no one cares about these threats, I’m a bit surprised they even made the news considering that nothing will come out of it. Neither Panamian nor US nor British nor London courts will side with CK.

Asia

A quiet week in Asia after shocking elections in the previous week.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won the first election in the country since protesters toppled Sheikh Hasina in 2024. The party won 204 out of 300 seats in the parliament. BNP has vowed to fight graft and preserve freedom of speech.

Comment: combined with a new trade deal, this is interesting. More in tariff section.

Middle East & Africa

It was another week of posturing, strongly-worded statements and equipment movement in the Middle East.

Netanyahu met with Trump, but per his words nothing definitive was reached during the meeting (only some directional understanding it seems). However, later on, Trump announced he had sent USS Gerald Ford to deploy near Iran, the second aircraft carrier engaged in the possible operation.

All of this comes as the US and Iran are getting ready for talks on Tuesday in Geneva.

Comment: despite all the negative press, I think the meetings go fairly well as subject-matter experts will now be part of the negotiations. We may be in for a massive repricing here:

Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem left his roles as chair and chief executive of DP World, an Eirati logistics giant, after his associations with Epstein came to light i the newest batch of released documents.

Comment: and so the repercussions resonate all over the world; a few people will lose their jobs, some may be prosecuted and the world will move on.

US armed forces carried out a series of strikes against the Islamic State in Syria over the past 2 weeks. CENTCOM said the strikes were in retaliation for an ambush back in December that killed 2 American soldiers and an American civil interpreter.

Comment: expected, but mostly inconsequential. Syria is no longer a threat / Iran ally.

Botswana which is a leading diamond producer unveiled tax hikes to offset sales drop and a budget deficit - year by year, lab grown diamonds are getting increasingly popular.

Comment: diamonds are a fake industry, I do hope lab-grown alternatives will push out “real diamonds”.

Europe

An interesting week on the old continent as Ukraine peace negotiations intensify amid Munich Security Conference, where last year JD Vance bashed European leaders.

Merz said that the post-war world order is no more as he opened the Munich Security Conference. The event had several important speeches, mainly from Marco Rubio, who said that the US and Europe belong together and have common civilisational bonds. While he also criticized deindustrialization and mass migration, it was seen as an attempt to bring Europe closer.

Ursula von der Leyen was reassured by Rubio’s words, but she said that some lines cannot be uncorssed. She emphasised Europe striving for independence. Keir Starmer, who is on the verge of being ousted, added that Europe developed bad habits under American security umbrella and now needs to break them. In the meantime, Kaja Kallas issued some strong words that other countries look up to European nations.

Lastly, Gavin Newsom said that Trump is temporary in an attempt to lay ground for his 2028 campaign.

Comment: the conference was a whole lot of talking that as usual is translated to very little action. I’ve been saying that Europe needs to change it ways since I started PROPHET NOTES, and here we are, 2 years later, saying the same on conferences. Nothing really worthy happened at the event, outside of Gavin Newsom ensuring us that he is seeking the democratic nomination in 2028.

Herman Halushchenko, a former Ukrainian minister, was arrested while trying to leave the country in connection to the $100 million embezzlement case from last year.

Comment: routinue cleaning.

Zelensky said he needs 2 months of ceasefire to hold an election, while Russia agreed to give 1 day to conduct it.

Comment: the usual posturing before another round of negotiations in Geneva (also tomorrow). The momentum is there though and I see a path towards 14-30 day ceasefire to conduct the election if needed. But the path is treacherous and narrow - Polymarket didn’t move at all on the news.

Anas Anwar, the Scottish Labour leader, urged Starmer to resign. And shortly after, Britain’s top civil servant, Sir Chris Wormald, was forced out by the Labour government after barely a year in the job. He is the shortest-serving cabinet secretary since the post was created in 1916.

Comment: Starmer barely clung to power for now, but as I said on the previous episode of PROPHET TALKS, he has plenty of occasions to lose the job in the near future, considering that the wolves are out.

Italian government passed a bill authorizing the use of naval blockades to stop migrants entering the country.

Comment: a massive win for conservative Giorgia Meloni. And a first country in Europe (I believe so) authorizing the use of force to prevent migrants from approaching their land. Good move if you ask me, should increase her ratings.

Karol Nawrocki told in an interview that Poland should work towards joining the nuclear project due to Russia’s aggressive stance.

Comment: sure, Poland couldn’t build a nuclear power plant in 35 years despite 2 projects being approved and one even started the construction. Current Polish elites are incapable of a project on such a grand scale.

Switzerland will hold a referendum in June on capping its 9.1 million population at 10 million.

Comment: while the regulation is mostly aimed at curbing mass migration, it is an extremely stupid idea to codify a population cap…

WhatsApp said Russia tried to fully block its services as part of a crackdown on foreign tech. Other Meta platforms are already banned in Russia, but WhatsApp held steady as millions of Russians were using it - now Russia wants them to switch to a domestic platform, MAX.

Comment: pretty logical for team east to run its own tech stack.

Business, Finance & Economics

Retail sales in America were flat in December, despite the holiday season being in full swing. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.

Comment: weather + inflation + CoL crisis takes its toll, sometimes you can’t fake it till you make it.

Pershing Square (Bill Ackman’s fund) disclosed a 10% stake in Meta. Ackman is betting on Meta being undervalued due to heavy AI spending that didn’t immediately translate to having top LLM.

Comment: Ackman must believe the tech and expertise is there to still benefit from the AI boom. He’s been known to make big bets that go spectacularly right and wrong. I will be watching this play out.

Alphabet raised $31.5 billion in a bond sale this week to finance AI investments. It also included a 100-year bond in a rare move.

Comment: Alphabet is flush with cash as far as I know so this move is interesting - long-term bond issuance means they lock in current interest rates. In a sense they must believe that future interest rates will hold steady at minimum but more likely rise, otherwise they’d bet on the short term debt.

Paramount sweetened its offer for Warner Bros. by offering to pay $2.8 billion termination fee over Netflix offer along with offering to cover $1.5 billion in fees related to debt refinancing. There is also a penalty clause for not closing the deal in time, $650 million each quarter.

Comment: it’s financial history made before our eyes. Books will be written about the battle to control the new world of entertainment between Netflix and Paramount. Barbarians at the Gate of our times.

Tariffs

America and Taiwan officially signed a trade agreement - America will reduce tariffs on Taiwan to 15%, same as Japan and South Korea. Taiwan will lower tariffs on American goods and buy billions in energy and aircrafts.

Comment: payment for defense.

Bangladesh made a trade deal with the US setting 19% tariff on most exports. Additionally, some clothing made with American cotton will enter America duty free.

Comment: seems like Bangladesh is aligning with the US.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. I will be working on the Ukraine deep dive for this week + I’m planning to look a bit more into SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.

Stay strong and see you soon!

In the meantime though, we had some developments in the Tennessee Governor Democratic Primary as well as in tech, where we had a massive repricing on Apple and OpenAI markets.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Tense Situation

The market is pricing in the new exercises by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva today.

Tensions are surely high as both countries hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Outside of the exercises, both sides are moving equipment - both to intimidate and to be ready for a confrontation if things go south.

#2 Not So Fast

The market is also updating its value for Abbas being out as Palestinian president in recent days.

The move is most likely tied to him being more active in the public space in the recent days. He published a draft constitution as well as went to Oslo and had a speech on the African Union Summit. Initially traders were counting on old age and Gaza peace plan to remove him, but it seems that the 90-year old president is keeping up well.

#3 A Volatile Primary

Moving to domestic US markets, we've seen a lot of volatility (albeit on small volume) on the Tennessee Governor Democratic Primary Winner market.

The move is most likely to Jerri Green leaving her colleagues way behind when it comes to fundraising. That being said, the Republican candidates are even further ahead.

#4 Misunderstanding

We believe this market violently changed price due to a massive misunderstanding of the rules.

The market was trading in the high 80s at some point, as most traders were convinced that a foldable phone will be released this year. Apple is know for rare new product lines (last one was Vision Pro in 2024), thus when they found out in the rules that any new iPhone won't count, the price dropped towards 30c for Yes.

#5 Tail Event

And lastly is an example of how bonding on prediction markets can be dangerous.

While a lot of traders are keen to bond markets (ie. buy when prices are >90c for either option), sometimes it is not without risk. Tail events do happen, as traders bonding ChatGPT outage market learned yesterday. After all, a 5% chance event happens roughly once every 20 times.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today's edition is light on politics, but heavy on big market moves as we await tomorrow's meetings in Geneva relating to Ukraine war and negotiations with Iran.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Meaningless Thriller

We kick-off the week with a massive swing on Portugal election turnout, where just a few votes changed everything.

There was a delayed vote due to some regions experiencing flooding during the initial voting day for the second round. But in a democracy everyone must have a chance to vote, so they did. In the meantime Polymarket traders were trying to assess how many people would actually vote as the election was decided anyway.

Turnes out it was a daunting task as the official number hoovers just around 50%.

#2 Free Money?

As the start of the week is light on drama, it is time to highlight one of the most ridiculous markets ever.

After Kevin Warsh was announced as Trump's nominee, for some reason a lot of money started to buy Yes on Judy Shelton to be nominated. The reality is that Kevin Warsh will be nominated eventually, but we might wait a month or so for it to happen. In the meantime, there is an event that is just short of money giveaway on the market (NFA as always).

#3 The Warner Bros. Saga Continues

The market on Paramount acquiring Warner Bros. jumped sharply as Paramount added another sweetner to the offer.

Paramount promised to cover Netflix's termination fee of $2.8 billion for exiting negotiations. It also wants to pay $1.5 billion in fees on the new refinancing package Warner Bros. is exploring as well as add a $650 million bonus per every quarter no deal is reached.

It's quite a bid and the market noticed.

#4 Is It The Day For Grok 4.20?

The market once again chose to trust Elon Musk, as he promised to launch Grok 4.20 this week.

Elon is notorious for not keeping to his own deadlines, but sooner or later he has to launch. The competition has been shortening the release cycle and Grok feels like old tech again. The increase in price is not only due to Elon's comment, the comment was just an admission that xAI needs to move fast.

#5 Winter Olympics: Italy Marching Forward

Lastly, the market has been agressively repricing Italy's chances to get the 2nd most gold medals, after a stellar performance from the country.

While Norway is securing its 3rd win in the row, Italy is emerging as a strong contender for the second place, trying to beat the US. Can they make it? There are still days till the Olympics are over, but the US team is no joke.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Besides that we found a curious market on the SAVE Act that made the news yesterday and we looked. again at measles, which once again is proving to be more stubborn than anticipated.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Murky Waters

SAVE America Act passed the House, but the market turned cool for 2 reasons.

The first one is that the Act is due to struggle in the Senate, where even Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) went against it. And the second reason is that the market is about the initial version of the Act, which is no longer being considered. Sometimes rules are king and we need to read them to truly understand the maret.

#2 Escalations

After successfully deploying a naval blockade on Venezuela, the market increased the chances of a tanker seizure near Iran.

All due to rumors that the Trump administration is mulling using a similar tactic in Iran. However, many experts warn that Iran is significantly more likely to respond to such actions. The market is also taking that into consideration, thus only a limited increase to 43% chance.

#3 Measles Is Back

We are once again turning our attention to measles as after the recent update, Polymarket traders adjusted their forecast sharply.

It is now projected we will see ca. 1,137 cases by the end of February and 5,921 by the end of the year. In the meantime, Metaculus forecasters also see more cases than before, with a collective forecast above 5,000 cases in 2026, up from ca. 3,000 at the beginning of January.

#4 Fight On

It seems like every week we hear about a new LLM being dropped as AI labs are fighting for dominance.

Now we are hearing about a new Gemini version, after Google updated Deep Thinking mode yesterday. Contrary to the title here, it doesn't need to be 3.5, it can be any successor to Gemini 3 that is not Gemini 4 (or 5...). As we only saw rumors online, is it another case of insiders (like this account) looking to make bank?

#5 Competitive Winter Olympics

Norway is still ahead, but our Day 3 coverage of the Winter Olympic Games market sees Italy gaining ground.

After a good performance in the first days of the Games, Italy is boasting 17 total medals with 6 gold ones while Norway has only 14 medals, with 7 gold. Norway is still the strong favorite, but we believe that many traders didn't anticipate such a contested market.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today outside of politics (and Winter Olympic Games) we cover the Fed and a rare culture market as "Wuthering Heights" fell sharply from graces after initial reviews.

Do you like culture markets?

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Tempered Expectations

Yesterday FT reported that Zelensky is pressured to do an election and a referendum by May 15th, causing the chances to spike on the market; only hours later Zelensky denied everything, tempering the market's expectations.

The reality is that regardless of the deadline, the American pressure is there to have a deal ready. We are looking at interesting couple of months ahead of us.

#2 Not So Fast

Today seems to be a story of overreacting markets as almost the same situation happened with Keir Starmer.

Seems that at least for now, the crisis is over. There was not enough internal support for any other candidate to topple Starmer. But as I spoke last week, there are plenty of opportunities in the coming months for that to happen. And if you were to trust my gut, this price seems fair.

#3 A Stroke Of Confidence

Traders were already pricing in a pretty high conviction of no change in interest rates in the next FOMC meeting, but now the market seems virtually certain.

Traders are betting on strong labor market data to give the Fed enough comfort to not change the rates. At the same time though, it is a sure way to anger Trump. Ultimately it is bound to make for another interesting outburst from POTUS.

#4 Sudden Change

Only yesterday we reported on Norway being almost certain of victory when it comes to the number of Winter Olympics medals, but now it seems US has at least a chance.

Traders dramatically updated their fair values after Norway touched 80% chance as the table now looks wide open. That being said, Norway has one of the best teams when it comes to winter sports and the country has won 2 previous Winter Olympic Games.

#5 Are You A Man Of Culture?

We rarely touch culture markets here, but this epic fall from graces deserves a segment in our Morning Brief.

"Wuthering Heights" was supposed to be a banger starring Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie. However early reviews are split as the movie is only inspired by the classic novel and for some critics it is "sex over substance". Will you watch it , or do you prefer to stay with the classics?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of politics we highlighted a new market forecasting GPU rental prices and took a look at Winter Olympic Games 5 days into the tournament.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Striving For Peace

The chances of an election being called in Ukraine rose sharply after FT reported that the US has given Zelensky a May 15th deadline to conduct not only the election, but also a referendum on a peace deal.

Otherwise, Ukraine can lose the pre-agreed security guarantees. Trump has been clear he wants the deal to happen by June so he can fully focus on the midterms with another W under his belt. The path is there, but it is a treacherous one.

#2 Tense Situation

The market was initially pricing in a quick turnaround and another meeting between the US and Iran, but it seems that Netanyahu might have changed this plan.

He is due to meet with Trump today to discuss the current negotiation process and possibly influence it so all of Israel's goals are met. We are bound to hear very strongly-worded statements by the evening, but the market is still confident we will see another Iran-US meeting by the end of the month.

#3 Trump's Problems

The SCOTUS ruling on the legality of Trump tariffs is coming soon. As we anxiously await the results, BYD decided to join thousands of companies with US operations and sued the US government, demanding the tariff refund.

The Trump administration on the other hand is trying not only to show that tariffs were legal, but also that at this point the reversal is impossible. But the market is not convinced:

#4 Forecasting GPU Rental Prices?

Polymarket now makes it possible to forecast GPU rental prices by collaborating with Silicon Data index.

GPU pricing has been crucial for LLM development, crypto mining and other intensive operations. Being able to understand price volatility and expected direction is yet another great use case of prediction markets.

#5 Norway FTW

In a not so shocking development, Norway seems to have secured the top spot in the Winter Olympics.

The Nordic nation is now expected to win the most medals in the competition as it leads the table 5 days into the competition. The country has won in the previous 2 games and since it lives and breaths winter, it is no shocker it is also a strong favorite now.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So today we launch our midterms coverage. Besides key races and swings we also focused on finance with acquisitions and IPOs, the impact of the new Anthropic Claude Opus 4.6 and Thai politics after parliamentary election.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Overreactions

There's been a lot of volatility on the Texas Republican Senate Primary market where Ken Paxton dropped from almost 70% chances to win, down to 45%, only to rebound to 59% hours later.

The culprit here is an obscure poll that once again put Paxton firmly in the lead, while discounting Wesley Hunt's chances of bridging the gap. We will feature more midterms races from now on as the campaigning heats up.

#2 (Not That) Easy Choices

The Thai election was surprisingly won by the party of an incumbent prime minister, but the market has tempered expectations of a quick government forming.

Thailand is notorious for an extremely slow process when it comes to government creation (and even election certification which can take up to 60 days). People's Party not winning the election makes the whole process easier, but we shouldn't mistake easy for quick.

#3 Pizza Hut Is Up For Grabs?

The market became bullish briefly for a Pizza Hut acquisition after it was announced that the chain will close 250 locations in the US soon.

The chances of an acquisition were already high as the owner of the chain, Yum Brands!, has already announced back in November that it would perform a strategic review of Pizza Hut as part of its quick service restaurant (QSR) portfolio.

However, we are a long way from a proper acquisition as the chain is not even rumored to be offered and these processes tend to take at least a few months, with bigger acquisition usually taking a lot longer.

#4 IPO Frenzy

The chances of a SpaceX IPO rose on the news that Grimes is back in Morgan Stanley.

The banker is known for his relentlessness in pursuing clients. He handled Musk's businesses before and supposedly has a good relationship developed with him. Not only that, markets are also bullish on Anthropic IPO since the news broke out. Seems like a one rainmaker can make all the difference.

#5 The New Leader

The recent release of Claude 4.6 from Anthropic made quite a lot of waves in the media. But it also cleared some key thresholds in the benchmarks.

LLMs are getting more and more sophisticated. But in our opinion there is a lot of misunderstanding there. AI bulls on X are preaching AGI is coming soon, while the reality on the ground shows that most businesses still didn't adopt the most groundbreaking solutions like Claude Code. Most likely, we are still years from anytihng significant like an autonomous coder. But it doesn't mean we are in for disruption in the coming months and years.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Without further ado, click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A busy week in the US, both on the domestic and international front.

The State Department accused China of secretly conducting nuclear tests, most recent one in 2020.

Comment: the US is pressuring China to join the new nuclear treaty between the US and Russia. Since China’s arsenal is ever-increasing, the US (and Russia) must feel that any agreement without China is in fact favoring it.

The partial shutdown ended after House of Representatives narrowly passed the bill. But the most pressing issue of funding the DHS is postponed only till February 13th.

Comment: and the partisan fight continues.

Bill and Hillary Clinton agreed to testify in a congressional investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. They initially refused, but lawmakers planned to hold them in contempt of Congress if they didn’t cooperate.

Comment: I doubt we will hear anything groundbreaking, especially since the pair now pushes for a public hearing.

The Trump admin said it would withdraw about 700 ICE officers from Minnesota, but still 2,000 agents will remain in the state, up from 100-150 previously.

Comment: whatever happens here now will happen in relation to the DHS funding negotiations. Also future deployments are probably at stake.

Artemis II failed a wet dress rehearsal (something to do with fueling equipment), pushing the launch date from February to March the earliest.

Comment: we all are waiting for Artemis III anyway.

The Americas

A quiet week in the Americas.

The US said it had killed two suspected drug smugglers in a strike on a boat in the eastern Pacific. The total death toll of the strike campaign is now at least 128.

Comment: Trump needs domestic policy wins so we can expect more strikes to highlight his war on fentanyl.

Asia

An eventful week in Asia with surprising election results and trade deals.

Takaichi Sanae won a landslide in Japanese snap election. In a gamble, she went from having a minority government to securing a 2/3 supermajority that allows her to even change the constitution.

Comment: sometimes a gamble pays off. Now, since Takaichi is on friendly terms with Trump, we can expect a lot of cooperation between the two countries.

Anutin Charnvirakul, Thailand’s prime minister, declared victory in election for his conservative Bhumjaithai Party. It’s a major upset for Thai People’s Party that was looking to win the election.

Comment: looks like Thais got tired of trying to change anything by voting for the reformist People’s Party. No shocker since the party was already twice prevented from forming a government.

The US and India unveiled an interim trade framework ahead of the broader deal they want to sign in March. India supposedly agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on American industrial goods while committing to spend $500 billion on American products over the next 5 years. The US will apply a tariff of 18% on Indian imports.

Comment: this deal has 2 consequences. First, it undermines a bit a deal between India and the EU, but second, and more importantly, it puts India on the path to choose team west over team east.

At least 31 people were killed in a suicide bomb attack on a Shia mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan. Around 170 people were injured.

Comment: Shia muslims have been targeted before in Pakistan… but optics are interesting here.

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East continues to be defined by the Iranian situation this year and last week was no different.

We started the week with American navy shooting down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier. After a series of threats, US and Iranian officials met in Oman on Friday for talks. Both sides commented on them being positive, but no breakthrough was achieved. More meetings are expected.

Between the comments, both countries continue to maintain a strong posture.

Comment: you can read my thesis on the talks here.

Saudi Arabia and Syria signed an investment deal that will involve the two countries working together to create a low cost airline and a new airport in Aleppo.

Comment: after initial Turkish success, other countries are looking to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction. It’s only fitting to see Saudi Arabia doing investment deals here.

Seif al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of Libya’s former dictator Muammar Qaddafi was reportedly killed. The situation is unclear, but his lawyer said he was assassinated at home by unknown assailants.

Comment: and so the dynasty is over. Not that it matters, since the country is divided since 2014.

Europe

And also a busy week in Europe as Ukraine talks are intensifying. But even outside of war, there is a looming crisis in the UK politics and other minor stuff worth commenting on.

Russia started to strike energy infra again, ending the pause on such attacks due to cold weather. In the meantime Ukrainians shot and injured Vladimir Alexeyev, a senior Russian general and deputy head of military intelligence in Moscow.

But when it comes to peace, the EU proposed a ban on all services provided to Russian oil tankers, to force the Kremlin back to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This comes when Trump said he is looking to get the peace deal by June and offered to host the next round of talks in Miami.

Comment: looks like I need to focus on Ukraine again. At the end of the year I said I see the path towards peace. The question is though if all parties manage to go on that path. Expect a deep dive soon.

Keir Starmer is in trouble as the British PM faces backlash over his appointment of Lord Mandelson as an ambassador to the US, after Lord’s close friendship came to the surface with the release of Epstein files. Starmer denies knowledge of the extent of the friendship, but it didn’t stop McSweeney’s resignation (his top aide and political advisor, who pushed for Mandelson’s appointment).

Comment: Starmer has already been unpopular. Now he faces even more backlash as his party is looking at another set of defeats in the coming byelecitons and council elections. His days might be numbered:

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez said his government is looking to ban social media for under 16s.

Comment: after Australia, here comes Europe, replicating the worst legislations from around the world. There is no argument to ban social media for young, other than the laziness of the parents. Rather it is an opening to strictly regulate online presence. I would go to protests if I were a Spaniard.

Norway’s police launched a corruption investigation into Thorbjorn Jagland, a former prime minister and chair of the Nobel committee, over his links to Epstein.

Comment: another European who is having troubles because of Epstein while Americans walk without issues. At least Trump must be ecstatic now since he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Business, Finance & Economics

Tech stocks fell this week after Anthropic released it’s newest Claude LLM. It can code better, but also do some legal nad analytical work, which pushed software companies down. However, the market did rebound on Friday.

Comment: AI is good for some companies and bad for other. Claude 4.6 is nowhere close to even being a remote coder and my understanding is that we are still years away from such a model.

Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned plans for a merger that would have created the world’s largest mining company. Both parties could agree on respective party valuation.

Comment: I don’t think it has any major implication for team west (or team east) supply chains.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time since November 2024, giving back all the gains since Trump wont the election.

Comment: crypto winter is here… it’s good to be on prediction markets vs crypto.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. I will be working on the Ukraine deep dive with publish date TBD.

Stay strong and see you soon!

People are watching Pentagon pizza reports, failing to realize the Pentagon is now randomly creating spikes to make the tool useless. I could quote plenty of other useless activities, but it all happens due to ignorant reporting.

What Are The Political Goals?

Instead of peddling each rumor like it is the ultimate truth, reporters should ask Trump about political goals. What does he want to achieve in Iran?

Is it regime change? Or is it a nuclear deal? Or maybe he just wants revenge? Or is it something entirely different like precision strikes on facilities?

Reporters are not asking this. Journalists are not trying to answer this. But this is the only question that matters as everyone is trying to understand what is going to happen. I have a decent theory of what the political goals are, but it needs an expansion now as we have official deal negotiations starting. In the previous article I was clear that Trump’s preferred path would be a deal. But is it possible?

Instagram vs Reality

For Trump the ideal deal is the one that renders Iran militarily useless. So the full package of no nuclear, no proxies, no ballistic program, proper treatment of protesters. This is the holy grail, something that would build his legacy.

But it isn’t the only deal that is acceptable for Trump. From the political perspective, the only thing he needs to do is to trump Obama and his JCPOA. The bar is pretty low as JCPOA neither stopped the enrichment nor provided any permanent solutions. A deal that is just good enough is a one that is only marginally better. And strikes might not be necessary to achieve that.

Here people usually like to categorize between the two extremes - either you believe TACO or you see Trump as someone who always keeps to his promises when it comes to foreign affairs. People of the former group based on events like Greenland or Liberation Day tariffs see Trump as this bully who, once confronted with the consequences, backs down. The latter see him as a strong protector who will never go back on his word when it comes to peace. Or wars. Or strength.

But the truth is that neither are right. Trump just has a negotiation strategy. He starts with maximalist demands to eventually end up with exactly what is needed (vis a vis political goals of course). The whole Iran situation, the military buildup, the tough posture, all the strongly-worded statements - they are all part of this strategy. However Trump is not omnipotent. Currently he faces several influences:

• ego: a need and want of personal achievement,
• midterms, divided into:
  • funding: someone needs to pay,
  • campaign narrative creation: you need to be able to present Ws,
• commodities: oil needs to be cheap this year; both to rein in Russia and maintain low fuel prices domestically.

The 3 Whisperers And An Adversary

Ego

Trump loves to look good. Strong. His image won him 2 elections and made his campaign events (somewhat) fun to watch. Ultimately though, Trump needs to be better. Better than Biden. Better than Obama. Better than Bush. It’s his basic strategy: person x is bad / made a bad deal; I am better / I made a better deal.

This kind of rhetoric was used when Trump spoke about NAFTA, Afghanistan withdrawal, Ukraine war and inflation (sic!) among others. The same rhetoric was used when Trump spoke about JCPOA - a bad deal made by an even worse president. And he would love to tout the achievement of one-upping Obama here (kudos to one of my followers on X who correctly identified this).

Trump is also a sucker for prizes. And signing a nuclear deal with Iran should finally put him in a spot where he can realistically win the Nobel Peace Prize.

From the ego perspective, Trump will do everything in his power to achieve a deal. And he should be ready to do it for a long time (well, at least till the midterms, or Nobel Peace Prize announcement), as long as he can continue to show strength while doing so (ie. expect more strong messaging in the media) and showcase even minimal progress in the process.

Midterms

Funding

This is where interests clash. When it comes to regional actors, Israel is looking to escalate the situation to a kinetic confrontation, while other actors like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia or Egypt (or any other country in the region for that matter) are aligned with Trump’s ego.

In that situation Israel might be tempted to use the AIPAC funding leverage to pressure Trump into action. However, the effect of such action would be limited - Gulf buddies of Trump would be happy to cover the gap as long as it ensured stability in the region. Netanyahu would also be wise to not use up too much goodwill with Trump; he has domestic issues and Trump administration has been of massive assistance to him and Israel in general. Plenty of prizes to be had in Gaza.

Trump’s unwillingness to escalate with Iran comes from a simple fact - to continue implementing his agenda he needs both House and Senate. Current polling is not favorable in the House race and potentially starting a very unpopular war is not an optimal scenario.

Narrative

When you win elections on stopping senseless military engagements in the Middle East, you don’t escalate a potential war in the region in the year of the midterms. When you specify in NSS that the Middle East is no longer a priority and you will only be opportunistic when it comes to any military actions there, you don’t escalate a potential war in the region. When you have a massive foreign policy win (the capture of Maduro) in the midterms year, you don’t cover it up with a potential war in the Middle East, especially with such a low favorability.

You see, there is a multitude of reasons Trump shouldn’t escalate the situation. The campaign narrative you want to push as Trump is strength outside and rebuilding inside. There are plenty of global events Trump can frame as his foreign policy wins; from tariffs to the wars he ended, it all resonates well with the public. Some of the wins can be tied to domestic policy, eg. Maduro capture as both a strong move against drugs and an effort to curb illegal migration.

But when it comes to domestic policy, there are not a lot of Ws Trump can tout. He largely stopped migration, but deportations are going painfully slow. The S&P500 breaks ATHs every month, but Americans are still struggling with high cost of living. Woke might be dead, but there are plenty of protests against Trump.

In such a situation Trump might want to cover up domestic policy shortcomings with another big foreign policy win (like a nuclear deal with Iran). But he cannot risk a big foreign policy loss (like escalating a regional war in the Middle East). Because once you do that, the whole narrative crumbles.

Oil

Lastly, there is an issue of oil. Any military confrontation in Iran risks the stop of oil flow and an oil price spike. If it escalates even further, the price increase will become permanent. Such an action destroys Trump’s agenda on 2 fronts:

First, by erasing Iranian oil from the market, Trump would increase the demand for Russian oil. The main importer of Iranian oil is China. Considering that China doesn’t pay market price for this oil, but rather barters for it, it would look to replace it not on global markets, but in Russia, where it can negotiate better conditions due to sanctions.

But Russian oil is not infinite. The decrease of global supply of oil would immediately push its price on global markets up, increasing the price an the pump for Americans. A low price of oil, undoubtedly Trump’s big achievement and top priority, is crucial to maintain to have any good arguments for alleviating cost of living crisis.

Simply put, Trump cannot risk a war in Iran. The combination of all of the above renders any kind of kinetic engagement deeply improbable.

Iran

If I can sit here and realize the chance of an actual kinetic confrontation is low, so can Iran. But contrary to common belief, it is in Iran’s interest to actually have a deal as well. What’s more, Iran even made sure to have the ability to justify a deal domestically.

The key is that Iran understands that no one in the entire world wants them to have a nuke. Not the US, not Israel, not China and not Russia. They see that if they ever do a run for a nuke, they will end up like North Korea - completely dependent on China, poor and with no prospects of making the situation better. So they always said they don’t want a nuke and the enrichment is solely for civil purposes. Thanks to that, they can sign a deal that prohibits enrichment past a certain level for sanctions relief and have a simple justification for their population - the US is giving us sanctions relief for resigning from something we never intended to do.

It was a clever setup as it allowed Iran to have an ability to have a nuke quickly without risking global isolation for having one. But the underlying conditions changed - Iran is weak with its proxies defeated. There is a persistent water shortage in the country while years of sanctions started to take massive toll on the overall economy due to JCPOA totally collapsing. It is wise to even resign from having the ability to have a nuke quickly in return for sanctions relief that could help Iran rebuild the economy. Especially if Iran is allowed to maintain its ballistic missile program.

The optimal path for Iran (and Trump) is to negotiate a deal that is marginally better than JCPOA for the US. It’s not perfect for either side, but it allows Trump to tout a victory over Iran AND Obama while allowing Iran to lick its wounds and sustain the regime.

Prediction Markets

My argument essentially boils down to the fact that the Trump administration lives in a political reality. The priority will always be maintaining power. Even if a regime change operation in Iran is optimal from a long-term point of view, Trump (or any politician for that matter) doesn’t have the comfort of engaging in the long-term due to a 2-year election cycle.

He needs consistent foreign and domestic policy Ws to maintain power. Thus, especially when lacking strong domestic policy Ws, he needs a strong foreign policy portfolio to bring in the voters and improve ratings.

From this point of view, we can expect the current strong posture to be maintained and narrative to remain aggressive. At the same time, we should expect talks to progress over the course of the next few months. If I were to speculate, I would punt a phased deal where additional concessions from Iran bring them more sanctions relief, with nuclear being the cornerstone of the deal.

These phased structures the Trump administration likes so much are dismal from business perspective, as they pretty much leave the most difficult issues for further discussion, but from a political perspective they are great. They allow Trump to tout success without actually achieving anything groundbreaking. Because, after all, a marginally better deal than JCPOA is not a massive success considering everything that happened in the last 2.5 years.

Moving straight to markets, you can imagine that I’m on No side for US strikes in the short-term, as well as for Ayatollah out or regime out. I’m a buyer for end of February and end of March deadlines at this point as they offer the best APY and thus risk/reward profile. On the longer term the context can change, moving the prices significantly; my initial thesis here remains unchanged:

I consider markets on Israel striking Iran significantly better priced and more risky. Israel has the incentive to drag the US into the conflict, but at the same time it can’t antagonize the Trump administration (or the Congress) too much. Thus, after bidding end of January, I am no longer invested in Israel to strike Iran markets:

Lastly, there are deal markets. In the initial thesis I was opposing a deal as I didn’t see a short-term path forward. But now I am willing to say there is 60% chance we will see a deal by the end of the year, thus I am bidding Yes on the market, while I also closed my No position on the end of June market in favor of a small speculative Yes position:

Wrap up

I will be monitoring the situation closely, but this is the base case for the foreseeable future. I do not see any viable path towards kinetic action at this point. I will most probably do more updates as we get more updates about how the negotiations are progressing. In the meantime there is Greenland and Ukraine to focus on.

Let me know in the comments what’s your take on the current situation in Iran.

If you value honesty, make sure to subscribe below. If you are already here, thank you and let’s see the world as it is!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US had a fair share of dramas this week. Starting with ICE and ending with Epstein files, he week was as busy as it gets.

Starting with the most consequential, the DoJ released more than 3 million additional pages of Epstein files. Still millions more were withheld. The Democrats are trying to uncover them too, but the DoJ defends itself by saying these were either too brutal or parts of ongoing investigations.

Comment: what is clear from this drop is that Jeffrey Epstein was a fixer for the elites. He was willing to provide anything and handle anything for a price and it seems he was pretty good at his job. Like Ray Donovan, but also degenerate enough to participate himself.

American Senators initially reached a deal they hoped would avert a partial government shutdown. However the House Democrats later decided to split the DHS from the agreement amid the ICE issues in Minnesota. Now we are up for negotiations as Democrats demand more “safety reforms”.

Comment: Trump went too far in Minnesota and now he will have to make some concessions.

And with the Minnesota situation, first Trump appointed his border czar, Tom Homan, to manage the operations there. And then Trump said his admin would deescalate a bit its crackdown on immigration in Minnesota. He called the killing of Alex Pretti an unfortunate event and promised an honest investigation. For now the agents that shot Alex Pretti are on leave.

Comment: I believe that last week my comments here were not precise enough, as it was pointed out to me by one of you. Alex Pretti didn’t die in violent protests - what I meant (and still mean) is that ICE deployments, followed by protests (some of them violent) and tragic situations like this one have a high potential of happening and repeating this year. It’s the midterms year and Trump needs to show he’s strong on illegal migrants as the deportations are not going as fast as promised. And since the current political division in the US is at its highest, tensions will rise to such levels easily.

The Americas

Good news for Trump admin this week from the western hemisphere as all the countries seem to bend to US will.

Claudia Sheinbaum, the president of Mexico, claimed the cancellation of an oil shipment to Cuba was a sovereign decision rather than a response to American threats. Mexico has become Cuba’s biggest source of oil since the Maduro kidnapping.

Comment: sure it was… Trump is getting his Ws, but will he be able to leverage them for domestic support?

Venezuela passed a law to open the oil sector to foreign companies. Trump now claims that Delcy Rodriguez is doing America’s bidding. Delcy also said she would propose an amnesty law covering the whole chavizmo period. She also announced the closure of notorious El Helicoide prison, where political prisoners have been tortured.

Comment: for now Delcy is hanging on to power while pushing American reforms. But it’s been barely a month since the Maduro kidnapping.

Panama’s Supreme Court ruled to revoke contracts with a subsidiary of CK Hutchinson to run 2 ports at either end of the Panama Canal. The court cited financial irregularities as the main reason.

Comment: the obvious real reason for this ruling is pressure from the Trump administration in relation to Chinese control of the crucial waterway. While there is plenty of work to be done in the western hemisphere to fully eradicate team east, good work was done recently.

Asia

A quiet week in Asia, bar a visit from Kier Starmer.

Starmer had a 4-day visit in China where he was looking to strengthen economic ties. He met with Xi Jinping. For now they announced that Brits will soon be able to travel to China visa-free. The plans for greater economic partnership start with AstraZeneca investing $15 billion in China to expand manufacturing and research.

Comment: Britain is trying to hedge between two great powers, but as it is the case with Canada, it will backfire.

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East was once again the topic of the week as tensions around Iran reached the peak.

Iran has been reportedly getting ready for strikes as regional authorities were given more power in an effort to streamline the management of the country. Iranian officials also traveled to Saudi Arabia and Turkey to press their case.

At the same time Trump was threatening Iran with a massive armada and the US with Israel were teasing strikes on a daily basis. Ultimately though we are now officially in negotiations as both sides are supposedly serious about reaching a deal.

Comment: my update on the situation is coming tomorrow, building on the very correct read of the situation in my last article 2 weeks ago.

Israel has recovered the remains of the last hostage in Gaza. The return of all bodies was a condition to begin the second phase of the ceasefire. Israel is also getting ready to open the Rafah crossing that is supposed to open today.

Comment: the plan is moving forward, I must write about Gaza one day as what will happen there in the next 5-10 years will be unprecedented.

Europe

An interesting week on the old continent with quite a few headlines that flew under the radar. Also a one very outrageous piece of news.

Zelensky criticized European allies saying that delays in air defense missiles deliveries had left Ukrainian energy infrastructure more vulnerable amid harsh winter weather. Despite Trump and Putin supposedly agreeing on halting strikes due to cold weather, there is no confirmation from the Kremlin on the agreement.

Comment: this is the winter Putin was waiting for since 2023. Extreme cold that persists for days, combined with attacks on the grid can be deadly for the population and morale. The next 2 months can be crucial regarding the war.

India and the EU signed a massive trade deal. Both will reduce tariffs on more than 95% of goods, hoping to see significant increase in trade between the two (EU counts on doubling exports by 2032). The deal will also include clauses on easing migration restrictions from India to the EU.

Comment: while a trade deal alone is probably a good idea as it secures a huge export market, the mobility agreement looks like a disaster in the making. Europe already has massive migration issues, I’m really not sure adding Indians to the mix will do it any good…

I will quote the Economist here: “Spain will offer legal residency to undocumented immigrants who have lived in the country for roughly six months, an estimated 500,000 people. Spain’s economic growth has outpaced the euro-area average in recent years, thanks in part to its relative openness to immigrants, many of whom are from Latin America. The expedited-residency decree does not need parliamentary approval.”

Comment: it is outrageous that any European publication can put a statement like this to print. Essentially an illegal operation to legalize poor illegal migrants, against the will of the people, through obscure channels vs the parliament. And justifying it by quoting good economic growth (supposedly thanks to these migrants sic!), while 25% of young Spaniards are unemployed… I wonder how will Vox react.

France follows Australia as a bill banning under-15s passed in National Assembly. Now it needs to pass the Senate. Macron wants to see the measure implemented before September.

Comment: while social media are a cesspool of propaganda, disinformation and degeneracy, they also have value, even for 15 year olds. Parents should control their children, not governments. I sincerely hope the bill fails.

Business, Finance & Economics

Some big news (and swings) in the world of finance last week. Very consequential.

Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be his nominee to become the new chair of the Fed. He is a former Fed governor that is keen on cutting rates (but also on reducing Fed balance sheet, which is not exactly Trump’s wish).

Comment: Warsh is not an extreme pick. While keen to cut, he won’t always see eye to eye with Trump. So we can expect a lot of volatility after May as he tries to build consensus on the board.

Speaking of the Fed, it left the rate unchanged, as expected. However, Powell didn’t provide us with any guidance when it comes to next FOMC meetings.

Comment: Trump will seethe and cry, but he is powerless now. Only 4 months to go.

Gold and silver gave back a lot of recent gains as precious metals violently fell after Trump confirmed his Warsh pick.

Comment: there are plenty of theories on what sparked both the move up and down and I won’t LARP here as someone who knows better. But it’s highly suspicious to see a move like that on such a big asset.

German police raided Deutsche Bank’s offices in Frankfurt and Berlin on suspicion of money laundering.

Comment: just another day for the meme investment bank. As always though, it will come out of it with a slap on the wrist.

Zijin Gold, a Chinese mining giant, said it would buy Allied Gold, a Canadian rival with big operations in Africa, for around $4bn.

Comment: Trump won’t be happy about that one for sure.

Amazon said it would cut 16,000 jobs in the second round of layoffs in 3 months. The firm has not ruled out further cuts.

Comment: it is brutal in the corporate world, but we can expect to hear such news for the foreseeable future. AI is nowhere close to AGI (or even an autonomous coder), but it is good enough to significantly raise productivity.

Tesla ends production of S and X models as it scales its robot production. It also had a first year down in terms of revenue amid the Chinese competition. And supposedly there is a merger coming between some of Musk’s companies.

Comment: Elon Musk is the master of getting government contracts, he will figure something out to maintain Tesla’s share price. After all his entire wealth depends on it.

Tariffs

Trump said he would increase some tariffs on South Korea, mainly cars, lumber and pharmaceuticals, from 15% to 25% as the country struggles to meet its commitment to the US.

Comment: just another negotiation, Trump is pressuring South Korea.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. It’s definitely a busy year so when it comes to next content, I expect a January recap to go live by Wednesday as well as an update on Iran to follow by Friday. There is plenty of ground to cover in what is a volatile negotiation between the US and Iran. The previous piece covered the overall context and developments till an official negotiations start. Now it’s time to see where it can go.

Outside weekend elections, we also take a look at UK politics, AI data centers in the US and Opinion Labs token prospects.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 A Japanese Supermajority

The Japanese snap election surprised the market after it turned out the incumbent party did even better than expected.

The party of Takaichi Sanae went into this election to strengthen its position as it previously ruled as a minority government. Now it has a 2/3 supermajority that can even take on changing the constitution. Sometimes risking it all pays off bigly.

#2 An Unexpected Upset

The Thai People's Party has been controversial from the start. The third incarnation of the problematic Move Forward party which won every election it took part in, only to be banned by the Constitutional Court later on.

It was hardly shocking that the people expected it to win easily. The polls were clear, it was the subsequent situation that was supposed to be unclear. Turns out the election was an upset for the People's Party, but the situation ahead is clear as the previous PM is set to continue in his role.

#3 Starmer's Issues

Going into the weekend we highlighted how Epstein files create new issues for the unpopular British PM.

To make matters worse, a key aide of his resigned over the weekend. BBC calls the aide the political brain of Starmer so you can only imagine how dire the situation must be. McSweeney (the aide) was responsible for Lord Mandelson's nomination so he is going out as a scapegoat. However it is a sign of times that the PM needed to get rid of his top advisor to survive (for now).

#4 End Of AI Boom?

After this market launched, immediately traders doubted that any kind of AI data center moratorium can pass, as these data centers are almost solely responsible for US GDP growth in the recent months.

However, some state Democrats in New York proposed to block the building of new centers to help keep the electricity prices in check. Such a move also undermines Trump's agenda, so you could say they might be killing two birds with one stone by proposing this new state bill.

#5 Delays

There is no news on Opinion token, which means the market will experience theta decay, ie. Yes price gradual fall.

Opinion Labs is a mostly fake prediction market (most volume comes from wash trading) where the token launch is probably the only reason anyone trades there. It's the third time we are writing about this market and it got us thinking - maybe it is beneficial for Opinion Labs to delay the launch to keep the userbase engaged?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But hey, at least traders that believed in TrumpRX launch got rewarded this time. We are looking forward to see what change can it bring.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Sometimes The Underdog Wins

We were able to witness a rare event on prediction markets where Analilia Mejia is poised to win a surprising victory over Tom Malinowski in NJ-11 Special Election Democratic Primary.

With 91% of votes counted she is in the lead and there is little chance she can lose it now. It's only logical that situation like that happen - after all prediction markets are very well calibrated, thus an event with 5% chances of happening, must happen once every 20 times, producing a beautiful chart in the process.

#2 Slow Cooking

While the first meeting in Oman is progressing, it is not what many traders expected.

The meeting is indirect, meaning that both countries' delegations don't meet. Every message is carried by Oman, the mediator, while both sides sit in different rooms. Seems like the negotiations can last a long time.

#3 No Mining Megamerger

Glencore and Rio Tinto are no longer projected to merge.

The market adjusted Yes price sharply as it turned out that the parties couldn't really agree on respective valuations. It's a common thing during megamerger talks, but considering how volatile current mining industry is, it isn't necessarily the last time we are hearing about this merger.

#4 Higher

Every day prediction markets gain in popularity. So much so that now the market believes Polymarket will be more popular than Robinhood in the near future.

It's not only trading - many people are visiting Polymarket and other prediction markets to get accurate odds on global events, elections and cultural happenings. And we are more than happy to bring context to these markets, on a daily basis, straight to your inbox!

#5 LLM Progress

Yesterday Anthropic launched its new model while OpenAI matched it by launching a new coding agent. And now it seems the new Anthropic model is close to crushing a new threshold in the Humanity's Last Exam.

The current high score belongs to Google Gemini 3 Pro, but it seems Anthropic Claude Opus 4.6 can beat that. 35% is almost a given while a record breaking 45% is probable by the end of June. Maybe the AI bears are wrong?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of that, we have a quick update on Ukraine war, Greenland deal, and TrumpRX.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Butterfly Effect

Looks like Epstein files created more trouble for Keir Starmer than Donald Trump.

After it turned out that Lord Mandelson (UK's ambassador to the US) figures prominently in the Epstein files, Starmer's government faced yet another round of scrutiny. Starmer has already enjoyed weak support due to unpopular reforms combined with the rise of ReformUK. Traders see this crisis as potentially being the last nail in the coffin.

#2 Russian Gains

Another day, another Russian gains.

This time we are talking about Pokrovsk. And it is an interesting situation - Russian war bloggers deem this city as taken since November, while ISW still lists it as under Ukrainian control due to heavy fighting un the north. However, even ISW admits the takeover is a formality at this point.

It's an important development as Pokrovsk was an important city logistics wise.

#3 Tough Deals

It looks like the market is slowly internalizing that the dealmaker in charge is now facing the one enemy that might overcome him - European bureaucracy.

We know since Davos that the framework of a deal is pretty much aligned. What the market didn't realize at first that even an annex to the current treaty would require Danish parliament's approval and Greenland's parliament's approval. And knowing European bureaucracy, it can take decades to finalize such deals.

#4 At Last

We have another Oval Office announcement today at 7PM and once again the market shot up, believing this one is finally about TrumpRX.

Initially promised to go live in January, the project had a slight delay. But this time it seems the announcement might be about it as the landing page is now deleted, with the previous link redirecting to a blank page with a single sentence at the top.

#5 No Consequences

While at least one European government looks in the face of collapse, American friends of Epstein hold up pretty well.

Despite figuring prominently in the Epstein files, the market no longer feels confident he will be out of his CBS role anytime soon. Personally, he expressed his shame, but said he had never witnessed any illegal activity.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

It's an interesting case of how some information gets priced in with a delay, while other forces wild market swings, that are ultimately unjustified. But sometimes, even the probabilistic truth machine can have a bug.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Cabinet Games

In a move that surprised the market, Stephen Miran announced he is leaving the Trump administration.

Rumors are that the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers is looking for a permanent seat at the Fed Board of Governors. If this is the case, then the consensus view between Bessent and Trump must be that Powell will leave once his term as the chair is over, to make room for Kevin Warsh. However, the market is not that certain:

#2 Inching Forward

While a harsh winter is over Europe, Russia is inching forward with the market now projecting it will enter Sofiivka by the end of the month.

It's not an important village at all, but with so many markets on the war progress, the number of significant moves in a month is a good indicator of how the war is going in relation to expectations resulting from media narrative (markets are highly dependent on the narrative here due to fog of war). Thus we will be watching it and highlighting whenever we see any anomalies.

#3 No Launch After All?

Only yesterday we reported that Artemis II launch is postponed till March, but now the market believes it is also unlikely.

We are unsure what moved the market since yesterday, but intuition says that with March launch as the base case, there is plenty that can go wrong (even weather!) to delay the launch even further.

#4 February LLM Craze

After Anthropic and OpenAI were rumored to launch new models this month, seems like it is also time for xAI to release one.

Grok 4.20 has been rumored for months now, with initial release day promised to be before Christmas. But with competition getting ahead, xAI is essentially forced to release to not fall behind.

#5 Wild Swings

And lastly, we have another interesting situation, this time on the Opinion Labs token launch.

Market briefly spiked to 80c for Yes shares, only to come down shortly after. Some traders bought Yes shares on this announcement, only to learn that the launch must be public. So a warning as usual: read the rules, they determine the market.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

It couldn't be any different, especially since we are ahead of the news here.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Spy Stories

Despite emerging media coverage, the market is not convinced we will see Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump Cabinet anytime soon. Kristi Noem is still a frontrunner after the Minnesota situation.

A whistleblower report on Tulsi Gabbard leaked to media yesterday. The report is reportedly highly classified, so much so that there is an issue around how to show it to Congress. Gabbard's office presents it as a baseless accusation and a political case.

And ultimately, traders don't see Trump sacking Gabbard, who while sidelined from major national security discussions, is laser focused on 2020 election.

#2 Technicalities

We were told that the last batch of the Epstein files was the final one, but traders still see 95% chance we will see new files in the next 3 days.

It all comes down to a technicality - the market will resolve to Yes even if the new file is a re-upload of the previously available file that was deleted. Some files are taken down due to some errors and are later re-uploaded.

The lesson here is to understand the rules as not every market is as straightforward as it may seem.

#3 Diplomacy Over War

The market is now virtually certain we will see the resumption of US x Iran nuclear talks.

Axios reports that we will see the talks begin even this week, after some traders, including PROPHET ;), put out theses that the whole situation is about the nuclear deal. It still remains to be seen if the discussions are productive, but it's a promising development in an effort to avoid a wider conflict in the region.

#4 The Moon Must Wait

NASA delayed the planned Artemis launch after the wet rehearsal proved to be challenging.

Initially planned to launch as early as February 8th, the next available slots are in mid-March after the wet rehearsal uncovered several issues to be dealt with. NASA is still optimistic it can launch in March, as they expected to run into issues after such a break.

#5 The Race Is Heating Up

We have a rumored new Anthropic model launch supposedly today and the market is already seeing 66% chance we will see a new ChatGPT model by mid-February.

We are not sure what news the market is using to justify such a high chance, outside of an obscure X comment, but with AI race heating up, OpenAI surely needs to up its game if it wants to remain in the race.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

And as we enter this new month we have plenty of moves to report on - from a possible Iran nuclear deal, through US government shutdown to a possible hostile takeover in the entertainment industry.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 A Small Disagreement

The shutdown situation has been a wild ride for both media and markets.

After it turned out there will be a partial shutdown after all, traders moved their forecast and the market now sees a 5-day shutdown while Democrats and Republicans discuss DHS funding. Democrats demand concessions after the tragic events in Minnesota.

#2 A Lot Of Noise

Iran tensions peaked last week, but it turns out we might see a deal instead as the chances of resumption rose to 62%.

Current reporting indicate we might be close to a deal as Iran and the US gear up for an official meeting. In the meantime the US military presence in the region grows by the day and the rhetoric remains strong. Strikes are off the books for now, but the situation remains dynamic.

#3 New Models

The chances of a new Anthropic LLM rose sharply after an X post speculated on an imminent release.

No one really expected a new model this soon, but the fierce competition between the labs must force them to ship faster and better. I (PROPHET) have a speculation this year that we will see some of the labs fall off, never to catch up again. Seeing the speculations in the post I see it becoming true.

#4 Fake Volume Is Getting A Token

Opinion, the mostly fake prediction market from CZ, the founder of Binance, was for some time rumored to launch a governance token on the 8th of February.

However, as we approach the date, the odds first dipped, only to partially recover shortly after. We are not sure what is the reason for this movement, which makes the market interesting to monitor in the next few days.

Ultimately though, it is a platform that almost no one uses, with fake volume done through wash trading, similarly to Limitless.

#5 A Hostile Takover?

Despite Warner Bros. rejecting the last offer from Paramount, the chances of the latter acquiring the former rose on the market recently.

We are not sure what pushed the chances up as there is no news around a new offer. The only bit of signal we could find is this Reddit post which claims that Paramount is bidding for Warner Bros. shares with $2.50 premium per share OTC, possibly to do a hostile takeover of the company, or at the minimum complicate Netflix's plans.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We showcase both markets while adding a commentary on Ukraine, TrumpRX as well as measles development in the US.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Kevin Warsh Projected As The New Fed Chair

After months of keeping everyone on edge, Trump is apparently ready to announce his Fed chair pick.

Sharp traders started buying Warsh on the announcement, which was later followed by a flurry of reporting that Warsh is the apparent winner. While keen on cutting rates, Warsh didn't always see eye to eye with Trump when it comes to Fed actions. It is surely shaping up to be an interesting year at the Fed.

#2 Shutdown Thriller

The shutdown market has been a real roller-coaster as there was hope twice in a single day that a deal might be reached before the deadline.

But apparently the Senators refused to schedule the second vote early, paving a way for a short shutdown as Chuck Schumer said there is a bipartisan deal. If the situation continues without any major hiccups we can call it a "technical shutdown" rather than a real problem.

#3 Conversations Among Friends

It seems that Trump has indirectly admitted he recently talked with Putin.

During a press conference Trump mentioned that he personally asked Putin to stop the strikes on Ukraine due to cold. While it is short of an official conversation confirmation, the implication is clear.

Ukraine though remains skeptical the air ceasefire will hold (if we can even call it that).

#4 TrumpRX Pump & Dump

Traders were anxious to hear about TrumpRX, perhaps too much so.

The market on the webpage going live this month pumped from 11% to almost 70% chance on the mystery Oval Office announcement yesterday. However it turned out Trump focused on other things and then ended the whole thing abruptly.

#5 Measles February Projections

Polymarket now expects just under 1,000 measles cases in February.

The new market for February was just launched and it already shows volatility. Initially traders expected over 1,000 cases, but there was a sharp downswing as some trader tempered market's expectations.

At the same time, Metaculus forecaster also adjusted their yearly forecast, now expecting only half the cases Polymarket is expecting for the year!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Did You Miss The Shutdown?

Only 2.5 months ago we had the longest shutdown ever end. Now it seems we are on the brink of another one.

The chances fell sharply recently, but a short shutdown is still in the books with Polymarket aggregate showing a projected 6 day shutdown. The whole story began when Democrats, protesting Minnesota ICE deployment, figured they can induce another shutdown. However, just 2 hours ago we learned that there is a deal in sight.

#2 Just In Time

We've covered the TrumpRX market a few times already, but now we might be finally seeing the resolution.

Polymarket traders piled to buy Yes shares after it was released that Trump will have an Oval Office announcement today at 4:30PM ET. It can be anything from the shutdown deal to the Fed chair to TrumpRX launch. But the first two are assumed to be leaked ahead of official announcements.

#3 Iran? You Misspelled Somalia

While media and X analysts are talking about imminent strikes on Iran, Polymarket shows an entirely different reality.

There is an ongoing campaign against ISIS targets in Somalia, in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia. It fails to attract any attention amid the Iran situation, but markets are clear that the next expected strike is on Somalia, not Iran.

#4 Doubts Around Artemis Launch

It took only one day to move from a coinflip to 1/3 chance we will see the Artemis launch by February 7th.

While end of February deadline looks safe with 81% chance of the launch happening, the market is a bit worried about the cold weather. On the other hand, the astronauts have entered a quarantine ahead of launch, indicating that preparations are ongoing.

#5 Gold Seems Trendy Now

While real gold surges in price, reaching over $5,500, it also seems we might have seen the first Trump Gold Card.

Nicki Minaj has supposedly shared a photo of a Trump Gold Card, proclaiming herself Trump fan no. 1. However the primary resolution source is the Trump administration, so we might have to wait a few day (or weeks) for the market to catch up.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But what is a forecast worth without a context? Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Minnesota Situation

Minnesota is home to a massive amount of drama this year and for good reasons - amid ICE deployment 2 people were killed by federal agents and protests engulfed Minneapolis.

However the market sees only 28% chance the recent Border Patrol shooter will be charged. The administration stands staunchly on agents' side and while Trump says he wants an honest inquiry, there is little belief in any real consequences.

#2 Markets As Military Offensive Pace Analysis Tool

Despite heavy fighting in the area, the market is no longer optimistic Russia can capture all of Prymorske by the end of March.

Polymarket has now listed plenty of frontline city markets on Ukraine war giving us a great way to analyze this conflict and assess the tempo of the offensive. Yet another source of value from prediction markets.

And when it comes to conflict itself, the pace is as usual slow while the talks in Abu Dhabi failed to deliver any breakthrough.

#3 Wide Discrepancy In Measles Cases Forecasts

Polymarket, after launching monthly measles markets, added more brackets and an average of predictions that shows us the consensus of the market.

And here we have a huge discrepancy between Polymarket traders and Metaculus forecasters. The former are predicting 7,345 cases while the latter are seeing only 4,075 cases this year. While Metaculus is (was) on the forefront of measles tracking and forecasting, their 2025 forecast has massively underestimated the cases. And the same pattern of upward forecast update can be seen this year.

#4 To The Moon

The market sees 43% chance we will see NASA Artemis II launch in less than 2 weeks.

The probability is moving higher as we write this piece for the world to witness the second Artemis mission that will take astronauts around the moon in preparation for the third mission that should bring humans to the moon again.

#5 Trading Is Hard

There is a market on a trading competition between AI and humans and the situation looks bleak.

While top traders in the competition are humans, models managed to avoid very large losses and are currently ahead as a team. But both AI and humans are bad with neither team P&L in the green. Who would have known trading is so difficult.

But on a more serious note, it is interesting to see how models trained on human data perform against humans in a real world environment.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We took a look at Insurrection Act invocation, Iran, SpaceX possible launch and more to bring you the most important developments this morning.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 No More Escalation (For Now)

Despite more and more news from Minnesota, traders no longer see the invocation of the Insurrection Act as likely this year.

This comes despite Bannon's calls to invoke it and hopes of many MAGA hardliners. We are of the opinion that it is way too early for that, but depending on how the overall situation evloves in the US this year, it is still a possibility this year.

#2 Iran Update

As "the armada" is coming to Iran, traders are betting and hoping for a currency crisis to complement it. And free market rates are close to the limit as I write this article!

Iran is facing rising inflation, the effect of years of sanctions, water shortage and general mismanagement of the economy. Now many analysts are betting on the economy collapse, that could bring the regime down with it. But some of the regional powers would rather see Iran weak than collapsed.

We are surely bound to hear a lot more about Iran in the coming weeks.

#3 Ukraine Peace Remains Elusive

Last week in Davos somewhat of a breakthrough was achieved - we now have trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine happening in Abu Dhabi. But traders seem to doubt a real breakthrough.

Latest news from the talks is that the key unresolved issue is still Ukraine's exit from Donbas. Considering how difficult territorial concessions are for Ukraine in regards to the constitution, it is no shocker that no immediate Trump-Putin conversation is expected.

#4 Space Moves

Outside of politics, despite Elon's announcement of a new Starship test in 6 weeks, the market remains skeptical we will see it soon.

We've covered the phenomenon of Elon's deadlines here repeatedly and SpaceX is no different. Elon loves to hype his projects, but he is always to ambitious as a way to motivate his employees. Seems like traders expect this time to be no different.

#5 Is OpenAI Cooked?

Yesterday's townhall alleviated some concerns around the company falling behind Google, but trader still don't see it overcome Gemini anytime soon.

Sam Altman admitted that the company was too focused on coding vs creative writing when preparing ChatGPT 5.2 - a mistake they are looking to correct in the coming versions. But traders don't really expect them to be back on the top. This spot seems to be reserved for Google as the tech giant has been dominating almost all benchmarks for a long time now.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

All the while, prediction markets continue to dominate the discourse, less so as a place to gamble, and more as a source of information. We are on the frontier of geopolitical analysis here so click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The domestic news cycle was dominated by another ICE shooting in Minnesota; but the real deal of the week were the new National Defense Strategy and massive winter storms.

The Pentagon released its new National Defense Strategy. Updated after 4 years, it draws heavily from the NSS published at the end of 2025.

Comment: I’m in the process of reading it, but there is nothing especially shocking if you read the NSS or listened to Trump anywhere during the last 2 years.

More than 20 states declared a state of emergency, 15,000 flights were grounded and up to a foot of snow fell across the US as Storm Fern brought extreme winter conditions. Almost 1 million people were left without power.

Comment: imagine what a harsh winter it is for Ukraine. That being said hope that all of you, my American readers, are doing good!

ICE agents killed a man in Minneapolis. Video of the incident shows several agents wrestling the man to the ground before shooting him multiple times. The Department of Homeland Security claims the victim had a gun and refused to disarm. Tim Walz called on the Trump admin to end the crackdown in his state.

Comment: expect such actions (violent protests, not necessarily killings) to be in the permanent line-up of the news cycle this year. I’m in the meantime eyeing the invocation of the Insurrection Act.

Trump filed a lawsuit against JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon, accusing it of cutting ties with him for political reasons. Trump demanded $5 billion in compensation. It is part of Trump’s campaign against debanking.

Comment: excellent, I hope they won’t settle (unlikely) and the courts order the bank to pay even more. Banks are way too rigid and politicized.

The Americas

Today we have the trifecta - Canada, Greenland and Venezuela. Greenland was an especially hot topic, but as usual, the endgame is way less sensational.

Mark Carney, after signing a flurry of deals with China, went to Davos and made a speech that shocked the world. He repeated the X classic of the end of the rules-based order, the multipolar world, etc. Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response, unless the deal with China is off the table; he said he wouldn’t allow Canada to become a drop off port for Chinese goods bound for the US.

Comment: besides powerful speeches and nice-looking photo-ops, Carney is in a bit of a pickle. It seems he didn’t really consult the deals with some of the local communities, eg. auto-producing Ontario. He also might have underestimated Trump’s reaction. I expect trade deal negotiations with the US to be especially harsh after this little performance.

Davos was full of Greenland threats coming from both sides. Trump wanted it all while Denmark was sending additional troops to the island. But ultimately Trump with Rutte agreed on a framework of a deal on using some land. And so the tariffs were withdrawn.

Comment: this is classic Trump - give outrageous demands to settle for exactly what you want. It amazes me how most still can’t see it for what it is. BTW article on how the deal might look like is coming, hopefully this week.

Venezuela’s national assembly voted to open up the oil sector to domestic and foreign companies. It needs to pass a second vote, but after that private firms will be allowed to operate oil fields and profit from exports for a royalty paid to the state. Media are also questioning whether any American oil giants would want to invest in Venezuela.

Comment: seems like Delcy is managing her stakeholders pretty well while pushing legislation to appease the Americans. Let’s see how long will it last. On the issue of American giants investing in Venezuela, worry not; they will be forced by Trump if they don’t do this willingly.

Asia

RUMINT from Asia suggests we had a coup attempt in China, however we should all remain cautious of such rumors. One that is certain is that something did happen.

Chinese defense ministry first said it was investigating Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, two high-level military officials. Mr Zhang was also one of the most trusted advisors to Xi. Then China’s official newspaper accused Zhang and Lui of enabling corruption and challenging the authority of Xi Jinping. Ultimately Zhang is also accused of leaking secrets about nuclear program to the US.

Comment: as the mantra goes: “don’t believe anything that goes out of China”. But at the same time there is a grain of truth in everything. Most probably what we are witnessing is an aftermath of a coup attempt of sorts, however it is unclear how far it could have went. I wouldn’t spend my time on this as there is low chance we can now the internal affairs of the Chinese.

As Takaichi Sanae is bracing for snap election she triggered, bonds react accordingly by their yields rising to 4%. Investors are likely concerned about her plan to cut taxes.

Comment: I don’t have a proper economics thesis now… yen has been in an interesting situation for some time now. Also a lot depends on the Fed choice. Let me know if you want a deep dive on economics for this year.

To Lam won a new five-year term as a leader of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party, after an unanimous vote. He pledged to pursue national growth of at least 10% and overhaul the economy.

Comment: I didn’t go very deep here, but it seems bullish for Vietnam as he is a reformist looking to obtain presidency as well and foreign investors like his plans.

Middle East & Africa

It was a rather quiet week in the Middle East & Africa, but a lot happened that can shape the future of the region.

Trump officially launched his Board of Peace in Davos. Over 20 countries accepted the invitation, many more still mull it (including Russia and Belarus), while others (mainly Western Europe) rejected it.

As the Board of Peace marks the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, Trump also unveiled plans for a new Gaza. Under the scheme, around $30 billion would be invested into building hotels, industrial complexes and data centers.

Comment: it looks like Trump is looking to make Gaza a special economic zone in the Middle East. He also seems to want to make the Board of Peace something more than just a body governing Gaza. I wouldn’t call it the new UN, but rather a cluster of countries that at least somehow want to be aligned with the US.

Syrian army extended its ceasefire with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia, for 15 days. Syria wants them to disarm and integrate into the Syrian armed forces.

Comment: I think the US is trying to pressure both sides to make a deal so the Kurds finally have a place to live (or get them ready to attack Iran). We are in very early stages of the process of giving Kurds at least some autonomy, or a comfort to live on a country that accepts them, but it will be a bumpy process.

Uganda’s army chief said that the security forces had detained ca. 2,000 opposition supporters and killed 30 people after a disputed election on January 15th.

Comment: just another day in Africa, there power belongs to the strongest. At least until team west reengages on the continent.

Europe

While Europe was extremely busy this week with Davos, the real European developments centered about the (justified) outrage about Greenland (already covered), Ukraine peace and some domestic developments across European nations.

Zelensky initially cancelled his plans to travel to Davos, due to a dire situation in the country, but ultimately the allure of the Swiss Alps was too much (allow me at least one joke, I know we are talking serious business here). So he talked with Trump, Witkoff talked with Putin and now Russian, Ukrainian and American delegations are talking in Abu Dhabi. The talks will continue this week.

Comment: there is a path towards peace, although a lot still needs to happen. I see I need to do a Ukraine conflict deep dive soon.

Sebastian Lecornu said he would force the French budget through parliament without a vote. He faced 2 no confidence votes and prevailed, saving the French budget for now.

Comment: we will have a repeat this year, but the important event is the 2027 presidential election. And I assume the second part of the year will be extremely interesting in the French politics.

The president of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, said he would resign from office. The announcement comes as the country had 7 parliamentary elections in the last 4 years. Radev served the mostly presidential role for 9 years and is expected to form his own party now. He is a known eurosceptic.

Comment: another European election to track. 2026 is looking awesome from prediction markets perspective.

Britain gave a go-ahead to Chinese plans to build a large embassy complex in London after years of delays. Critics say that the size and proximity to London’s financial center can facilitate spying.

Comment: and the critics are right, what a disgrace. Either the elites are clueless or complicit.

Business, Finance & Economics

There was nothing especially groundbreaking in finance this week, but a few interesting developments for the future happened anyway.

Micron, an American memory chip developer, said it would buy a Taiwanese plant for $1.8 billion to help meet rising global demand. AI data centers squeeze the supply for these chips.

Comment: hardware for me but not for thee. The fight for resources continue in the AI race, after graphic cards it is mamory-chips and pretty soon it will be electricity.

Czechoslovak Group, a Czech arms maker, raised $3.8 billion in its IPO on Friday in the largest defense IPO ever.

Comment: European defense industry grows and is looking for financing wherever it can. Rheinmetall was pitched as a good investment here a while ago already.

Blue Origin is looking to compete with Starlink as it plans to launch a satellite-internet service. Initial launch is planned for 5,408 satellites in late 2027. Bezos is looking to target business clients, data centers and governments.

Comment: good targeting from Bezos, these government contracts are too good to miss.

ByteDance x US deal is done and the new joint venture can operate in the US.

Comment: the fake deal is done and now we can finally forget about the topic.

Wrap up

So stay strong and see you soon!

Today is very US-centric with rumors of another shutdown, a fierce winter storm and other western-hemispheric events that are unraveling - from something as simple as a Fed chair choice to Canadian and Greenland independence.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Here We Go Again

We were almost there, weren't we? The chances of a shutdown dropped to 10% before jumping to 80%.

But with the second killing in Minneapolis, both politicians and traders are no longer sure we won't see another shutdown. Quite the contrary, we now even have the markets for the length of the shutdown. As we keep on saying, the midterms campaign is now in full swing with both sides doing everything they can to discredit the other.

#2 Winter Of The Century

It seems settled that NYC saw up to 12 inches of snow during the weekend, amid one of the harshest winter storm in years.

Almost 1 million people are without electricity as storm wrecks havoc in the US. And you might want to watch this market as it seems that 12-14 incches are still in the books if the snow continues.

#3 Longer

Among all the geopolitical drama it just seems we might have to wait a bit longer for the new Fed chair announcement.

The race has been one of the most volatile markets recently. At one point we had 4 serious contenders, but it seems we are down to 2 - the race is now between Warsh and Rieder. But even as we hear that the announcement should be live in days, January is getting tighter by the day.

#4 Carney's Dillema

Mark Carney surely looked nice on his Chinese photo-op, but it didn't bring him clout he wanted.

And his Davos speech only complicated the situation. Apparently, Carney failed not only to coordinate with the US, but also with his own provinces. So not only does Canada face 100% tariffs if they sign the Chinese deal, but also we hear that some of the provinces (eg. Alberta or Ontario) can be mulling a referendum to leave Canada. Traders are now extremely optimistic considering the short timeline.

#5 Greenland Deal

Last week was all about Greenland, but only now the real game begins.

After a wild week, Mark Rutte seems to have saved the day as he agreed to a framework of a deal with Trump on Greenland. But as PROPHET has been saying (it's a bit funny to write it in third person), it was never about annexation, but a deal to hold some land and have ability to develop infrastructure there and in the proximity. PROPHET's deep dive is coming soon on this one.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we cover the end of WEF in Davos and hands that were not shaken. On top of that we take a look at the domestic political and health situation in the Us as well as take Elon's new FSD announcement under the scrutiny.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 No Love For Israel

As Davos is ending, so are many markets on what Trump will do there. And the one thing he didn't do is meet with the Israeli president.

But we think it is insignificant. We mainly linked here to show you that Israel, despite the objections, ended up joining the Board of Peace. In the end, they needed to.

#2 Funding Secured

Despite potential issues, it seems that the US will be funded throughout January 31st.

Market updated the odds after it turned out that the bill with funding passed despite the Democrats opposition. Well, what can we say, up until now 2026 is the yar of Trump Ws.

#3 But Maybe Not Everywhere

While Trump clearly has W after W in the global stage, traders now see only 24% chance he will launch his TrumpRX website by the end of the month.

With 8 days left and plenty to be done, traders no longer see it as likely. The website remains the same, and the promises remain unfulfilled.

#4 Higher...

Seems like only a week ago we were discussing 5,000 measles cases in the US and now traders see a 32% chance we will have 10,000 cases in 2026.

Metaculus forecasters still see less than 4,000 cases, but in 2025 they were also slow to update their forecasts. And Polymarket traders are definitely ahead (or overconfident) as over 5,000 cases market has 66% chance to resolve to Yes.

#5 Dispute

Lastly, there is a new big dispute on the Tesla to launch unsupervised FSD.

Despite some coverage, Polymarket issued a clarification that there is still no consensus of credible reporting. But when it comes to Elon, that might change any second. If you are a fan of disputed markets, this is the next big thing ;)

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

From Greenland to Venezuela to Ukraine - geopolitics is dominating news cycle this week. But we wouldn't be ourselves if we didn't point you to some less obvious markets showing signs of coming volatility.

This and more in your forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Rainmaker In Charge

The chances of the US acquiring part of Greenland shot up briefly after yesterday's announcement on a framework of a deal being finished.

Under a new agreement, the US would hold rights akin to a freehold on certain parts of Greenland, allowing Trump to build bases and maybe even mine rare earths. However, traders doubt the deal can be done by the end of March. They are also unsure the de facto control of certain parts of Greenland will be enough to resolve the market.

#2 Davos At The Center

Staying in Davos, Trump definitely has a more busy week than anticipated - traders gave only 1% chance he will speak with Zelensky only yesterday.

The meeting is supposed to take place today. Witkoff is also due to meet with Putin in Moscow. And maybe, just maybe, we will have another push for peace in February.

#3 A Venezuelan Visit

The news on Trump talking with someone don't end, do they? Now the market is at 67% chance he will meet with Delcy Rodriguez by the end of the quarter.

Rumors from anonymous senior US officials pushed traders to adjust the odds. But it is hardly a shocker - Trump is keen on working with Delcy. They talked extensively before Maduro's kidnapping and Trump already had a phone call with her. Only logical that we now see a historic visit.

#4 Epstein Is Out?

As geopolitics dominates the headlines, the memory of Epstein files fades, as do chances we will see proof of blackmail.

Traders here are not really pricing in blackmail, but an apparent stop in what is a very staggered release of all the Epstein files the executive has. Some are trying to push it, but if you ask us, we see the more spicy content being released closer to the midterms in a targeted manner.

#5 A Promise (Not) Kept

And lastly, the market is no longer confident we will see TrumpRX launch by the end of the month.

The website is live and promises more is "coming soon", but with 9 days left in the month, doubt is creeping in. While some comments on Polymarket indicate the regulatory side of the project is far from finished, the commenter themselves point at a possibility of a workaround.

But probably the key question is whether Trump even remembers to do it this month?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

This and more in today's forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Tariffs Stay In Place (For Now)

Chances of the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs this month fell sharply after traders realized there are no more slots ahead of the 4-week recess.

As of this morning SCOTUS enters a 4-week recess and thus the next possible date for the ruling is on February 20th. And till this time, Trump tariffs get to live and pressure Europe on Greenland.

#2 Dick Swinging Contest

Speaking of Greenland, Macron and Trump engaged in a dick swinging contest yesterday.

Trump leaked a message from Macron, asking to speak with him in Davos. Then Macron said he has no intention of doing so after all. All the while the tensions between the US and Europe rise and traders get a taste of massive volatility - they still believe there is 54% chance the two will talk this month.

#3 Rainmaker

Everyone knows Trump is a deal man, but after initially being on the fence, traders don't see an imminent deal on Greenland.

It's probably the hottest topic of the week and yet traders see only 23% chance we will see a deal by the end of March. It's hard to imagine tensions any higher, especially after Bessent called Denmark irrelevant. But maybe Davos can change the course of action. We heard it's a magical place ;)

#4 (In)decision

Amid all the chaos, traders see little reason Trump should focus now on the Fed chair nomination, giving only 34% chance Trump will announce his nominee by the end of the month.

Trump is know to delay important personnel decisions, as he did eg. with his running mate in 2024. And traders remember that as Bessent comments didn't really reassure the market.

There is also the case of an investigation into Powell, we see the decision being pushed even further into the future considering everything that is happening.

#5 Elon's Deadline

Elon not keeping to his deadlines is hardly a secret, but now it seems he is outdoing himself with the release of Grok 4.20.

So far the only thing we know about the model is that it appears to be a decent trader. But outside of that, there is little clarity from either Musk or xAI team. Do you think we will see it by the end of the month?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So today we focus a bit on the domestic situation in the US, especially in Minnesota. There were also some movements around Machado. But the main case of the week should be the first sentencing in the failed South Korean coup trials - we shall see more volatility there as we approach tomorrow.

And lastly, we showcase a new market type on Polymarket - check it out and let us know if you like it.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Anti-Immigration Protests

While Trump refused to invoke the Insurrection Act for now, traders still give it 36% chance by the end of March.

With the 2026 midterms campaigns starting, immigration will once again be a huge issue. Both Republicans and Democrats will weaponize it to the max, thus we might hear about the Insurrection Act more and more this year.

#2 Epstein Is Not Done Yet

With all the chaos around the world Epstein took somewhat of a backseat, but traders still remember that millions of files are due for a release - they give 62% chance we will see a new batch this month.

This comes as the media tries to push the White House a bit - after all it's been a months since we were supposed to see them all. But both the traders and we believe that we will see more. It's just the release time that will be now adjusted according to the news cycle.

#3 Only Hard Power Matters

Despite a somewhat positive coverage of Machado's meeting with Trump, we perceive it as a total failure for the opposition leader - and so do the traders it seems, giving only 1% chance she will be back in Venezuela this month.

As Trump showed repeatedly, Machado is not crucial or central to US plans in the country. But she is still a fugitive there. All of that makes her return unlikely in the near future, especially since she has no arms behind her.

#4 Korean Court Drama

Over a year after the failed coup, Koreans are still waiting for convictions of the key people behind the scheme. And now, as the trials come to an end, traders expect sentences to be more lenient.

They give now 48% chance Han Duck-soo will spend between 5 and 10 years in prison for his role. The former prime minister is accused of being the mastermind behind the coup. For his sentencing tomorrow, the prosecutors wanted 15 years in jail.

Are some traders in the know? Or is it just a speculation? We shall see soon enough.

#5 Most Wanted Markets

Lastly, Polymarket is trying out new markets - this time it is the most wanted list.

We like to highlight some of the more informative market categories and this one fits the bill. With focus on crime, the effectiveness of FBI is surely worth tracking, especially when it comes to the high-profile cases.

Do you think 73% here is low or high?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 A Fall From Grace

Tim Waltz is on a really bad streak since 2024. First, a lost election. Then all the jokes about him and his family. Then the daycare center scandal and ICE protests. And now the investigation.

But just this time the governor of Minnesota might get lucky - despite the investigation into Waltz being announced, traders give only 39% chance he will be charged. We would add here that the whole situation is partly political due to the midterms - it's part of the campaign for GOP to secure the House and the Senate.

#2 The Apprentice

I remember saying back in October that Trump loves to make a good show out of anything, and the choice of the next Fed chair is his cue to play.

Since late November we had a flurry of news on the 4 candidates above, with each having his moment. As expected with any good show, it's been a wild ride. But if you want to get up to speed and beyond on the issue, you need to read Ivan's deep dive on Substack.

#3 Situation Is Clear

Many were saying that while the presidential election in Portugal might go to the second round the first time in a long time, it will be decided in the first round anyway. And it seems they (we) were right.

Antonio Jose Seguro decisively won the first round with Andre Ventura coming in second. Ventura represents the Chega party, which is an alt-right party akin to AfD in Germany - he has a har ceiling with majority of Portuguese people unwilling to vote for him.

#4 Third Time Is A Charm

Thailand is approaching a legislative election - in 20 days we shall know the results, but then the tiresome process of building a government will start.

And it isn't such an easy job - the currently leading party is a third incarnation of a party that wins elections, but is unable to form government with any other one as among other polarizing issues, it is looking to reform the lese-majeste law. The law is extremely harsh today and the reform has public support, but politically it is seen as an attack on the monarchy.

However currently the party is focusing more on the scam centers in a bid win a landslide victory.

Ultimately, the real game will be played only after the election.

#5 Relationships Above All?

SpaceX is looking to IPO and traders believe they nailed the leading bank.

Elon Musk has historically worked with Morgan Stanley on every major deal as he has a relationship with Anthony Armstrong, among others. While Armstrong is now the CFO of xAI, Morgan Stanley still handles the majority of Musk's finances and seems a natural favorite to get SpaceX.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

As we had a little break, today we have a classic mix of geopolitics, politics, technology and social issues that should bring you up to speed with global developments.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Mullahs Live To See Another Day

Violent protests in Iran, combined with encouraging comments from Trump, made a lot of traders think the regime change might be coming.

The chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by the end of the month went as high as 30%, before trending down to the current 9%, after an apparent deescalation between Iran and the US.

One could say that 30% was overly optimistic, but we do know that Trump held off the strikes at the last minute. Chances are, this isn't the last time this year we hear about Iranian regime change.

#2 The Consolation Prize

One could say that Trump got what he wanted. But we do know that such an action never feels quite right.

Machado met with Trump and gave him her Nobel Peace Prize. She hoped for a path towards Venezuela presidency, but all she got for now is a nice swag bag from team Trump.

In the end, Trump respects strength.

#3 Unclear Situation

Portuguese elections are in 2 days and the situation couldn't be less clear.

After Mendes lost his pole position this year, Seguro came out as a clear favorite to win, despite the volatility in the first round winner market. But we do feel that the market might be once again overconfident.

The polls are extremely close in this extraordinary election, a first in decades that will go to the second round.

#4 Slop Squared

The first news about possible ads in ChatGPT was leaked over a month ago.

But now we see unusual action on the end of March market as chances increased from 22% to 64% on no apparent news. Will we see ads soon? Probably, as OpenAI-related markets were filled with insiders recently.

#5 Not So Fast

Someone is not convinced we will see over 2,000 measles cases this year, despite Metaculus forecast and early numbers being high.

We are not sure it is a good time to oppose the case as there are no announcements on any new measures aimed at containing the spread - maybe it's a buying opportunity?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Besides that we examine US GDP growth and take an industry specific case under consideration - it should be crucial to our sports betting fans.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Arctic Escapades

As the pressure mounts on Denmark and Greenland, traders see a path forward, giving 34% chances of a del by the end of the quarter.

While we see end of March as a really tight deadline, in our opinion traders are on a right track - ultimately Denmark is a staunch ally of the US and will accommodate its wishes. But only after it takes something for itself; that's realpolitik.

#2 Cold Feet

After an extremely bullish streak, traders are increasingly convinced there will be no US strikes on Iran by the end of the month.

The Trump administration has been threatening action for a while now, but all it managed to do is create an impressive confusion. Supposedly even senior European diplomats are confused.

We consider traders more sober than the masses, and now they are pulling back, inflating the no strike odds in the process - are they right? Or did they fall for the confusion tactic? We shall see soon enough.

#3 Truth vs Markets

Yesterday we learned that the Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire is live... or did we?

Traders initially sent the odds way higher, but then some sharps realized that the announcement doesn't meet the resolution criteria. It was not announced by both Israel and Hamas (yet). And it is not implemented, yet. Any of the two happen ,the market can resolve. But for now it seems that the Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire is a mirage ;)

#4 Moderately High

After a small bump, traders now expect to see the US GDP growth for 2025 at 2.0-2.5% range.

The highest bracket on the market started to rise after Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate forecasted 5.3% GDP growth for Q4 2025. But the market is about the whole 2025, and estimation is more nuanced than taking an average of Q1-Q4 rates. We guess some traders are in for a surprise.

#5 Sports Event Contract Case Unclear

For some reason, the odds on SCOTUS accepting sports event contract case dropped significantly.

We didn't find any news that could explain the sudden odds movement - we will be on the lookout for any news around the topic as it is important for our industry!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of domestic politics, we are looking at the Middle East today, where we see strong probabilities of action in Iran as well as Phase II ceasefire in Gaza.

Lastly we once again examine the Portuguese election and showcase new monthly markets for measles - the outlook is rather bleak here.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Reckoning Day

Traders believe we will see the SCOTUS ruling on Trump tariffs soon, giving it 85% probability before the end of the month.

We have rumors that we can expect the news as soon as today. However the overall vibe is not optimistic - not only traders see little chances of Trump winning, but also Trump himself wrote that reversing tariffs might be impossible.

The market on the ruling was initially cautiously optimistic, but the odds dipped to ca. 30% after the oral arguments indicated that SCOTUS might go against the administration.

#2 Waiting In Anticipation

While the world awaits Trump's action regarding Iran, traders are already trying to anticipate follow-up moves.

There is now close to 50% chance we will see a coup attempt in Iran by the end of June. As defined, some state actor or faction would need to try to take power from the current one.

However, after days of no action (or even preparation) from the US, the protests are not as widespread as before. Rumors also are the regime will start hanging the protesters it caught today.

#3 Gaza Is Back In The Headlines

While situation in Iran is still unstable, Gaza might be looking at phase II of the ceasefire.

There was a sharp spike in phase II odds before January 31st recently, giving us 46% chance we will see the phase II. Rumors are we might get an announcement today, but not everyone seems convinced based on the price action. After all, we've already seen a few false flags in phase II markets.

#4 An Amazing Upset In The Making

Portuguese presidential election continues to surprise as the former 80% favorite to win now has less than 10% chances of victory.

After Christmas break, Mendes started to slide in the polls in favor of Seguro and Cotrim. Part of the reason is lack of online presence which we highlighted earlier. However, since we last reported on the issue, it seems that Cotrim has some troubles amid the sexual harassment allegations while Seguro seems to be cruising towards the second round.

#5 Monthly Measles Markets

After last year's measles markets surprised us all and attracted quite a lot of volume, this year Polymarket increased granularity providing monthly markets for increased forecast accuracy.

And what can we say, the picture for January looks bleak. Traders are virtually certain we will see over 200 cases in January, putting us on track to beat last year's record. And to say even more, traders now give 42% chance we will see over 5,000 case this year!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Barely, but we also managed a segment on rules today - give it a look, it might save you a lot of trouble!

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Iranian Protests

Despite almost no coverage from Iran since January 8th, traders are more and more convinced we will see the fall of the Islamic Republic regime soon.

Inflation (and general economic conditions) protests are happening daily in Iran since December 28th. Initially peaceful, now reports say that thousands of Iranians died as protests turned more and more violent.

However, it is now difficult to differentiate between propaganda and real videos from Iran - we see more volatility in Iran related markets.

#2 Strike Frenzy

It's not a mater of if, or even when. It is a matter of who's next!

Traders are no longer predicting if the US strikes - now they are predicting who is next. And despite strong media focus on Iran, traders see Somalia as the favorite to receive some American military tech. After initial strikes on January 8th, there is clearly an expectation of a longer campaign against ISIS.

One can wonder if America isn't stretching itself too thin...

#3 Portuguese Meltdown

Luis Marques Mendes was probably looking for a moving company in December and only 2 weeks later he can wave goodbye to the Belem Palace.

In a shocking reversal, recent polls in Portugal presidential election show new favorites - Cotrim, Seguro and Ventura. This three are now inches away in what is shaping up to be the most interesting election in Portugal... ever?

#4 Venezuela On The Brink

At least someone is not convinced we've seen it all in Venezuela.

Despite some promising reports from Venezuela, we recently had a spike in Delcy odds to be out of power by the end of the year. A country like that surely can be volatile. It remains to be seen if it was a sharp trade or a missclick.

#5 Rules Above All

Morocco prime minister market might become another dispute.

Initially, the market had a typo in the rules, stating the market is for end of 2026, despite not having such info in the title. Now, with the title updated, the rules poise another challenge - by wording, Aziz must cease to become prime minister between October 2 and December 31 2026.

Despite this, traders feel certain about the outcome, while we urge you to always read the rules!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of the past, we are looking forward to Trump x Machado meeting and examining potential action in Mexico. We also debate a bit the new GDP growth projection and start the conversation about the midterms. Or should we rather say Trump started it a few weeks ago? Find out below!

Top Movers

#1 Iran On The Brink?

Despite the ongoing situation in Iran, traders were rather bearish we will see Khamenei. They were wrong.

Jus a few hours ago the supreme leader of Iran had an official speech in which he accused the US and Trump of sowing unrest in the country. This accusation comes as Iranian protests escalate, Trump's comments add pressure and Reza Pahlavi is urging Iranians to protest even harder from his American villa.

Iran, to counter leaks and western influences, cut internet access in the whole country.

#2 Whatever It Takes

Well, Trump is meeting Machado and he mentioned that he wouldn't mind Machado sharing the prize with him.

Yes holders must believe Machado is willing to do whatever it takes to take power in Venezuela. It must have been tough, after years leading the opposition, she was judged as unserious and not respected enough to lead the country.

#3 Mexico In The Crosshairs

And it seems that Trump didn't have enough and is looking for more operations in the western hemisphere.

Traders seem to believe Trump - he said that land operations might begin soon in Mexico to counter drug cartels. Now Mexico is a lot better country to target when focus are drugs, but we also need to remember that Trump is not a fan of the current president of Mexico.

2026 is only starting, right?

#4 Higher

Productivity gains from AI, reckless AI capex spend or very massaged numbers?

We might never know, but Atlanta Fed is now projecting 5.4% GDP growth in Q4 2025. Seems a bit shocking, not only for us, but also for traders. We a surely awaiting the release to examine what hides inside this number. After all it's the highest since Q4 2021, which had the base advantage of pandemic 2020.

#5 A Fun Bribe

Last year Trump issued an Executive Order that ordered the AG to expedite the process of rescheduling weed from Schedule I to Schedule III.

Schedule III means that medical use is allowed, opening doors for medical THC being available across the US. With midterms around the corner, we are pretty sure what is the motive for this.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

2026 is quite a ride already and today might be the first day without any major development. Or are we being too optimistic? Well, at least today, the future does not look so bleak.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Is Delcy Consolidating Power?

Traders are more and more certain Delcy Rodriguez will be the leader of Venezuela till the end of the year.

The former VP, now current president, was apparently hand-picked by Trump to lead the country post Maduro arrest. However, Venezuela is full of weapons and people who know how to use them - it just might be that we see overconfidence rather than foresight.

#2 Peace After All?

Only yesterday we focused on a boiling Middle East. Now it seems we might have phase 2 of peace in Gaza.

The chances rose sharply after Times of Israel published an article describing how Trump plans to unveil the Board of Peace, along with other elements of the phase 2 of the ceasefire, next week.

#3 Gambling Issues

Last year many prediction market traders were baffled to see that a new bill specified gambling loss cap at 90%, leaving many professional punters in the red, despite having a pre-tax profit.

While the regulation shouldn't apply to prediction markets, which are financial markets, gambling is close to many people in the forecasting space. We want to highlight that the market can act as insurance for punters!

#4 Measles 2026

After measles turned out to spread wildly across the US, surprising many forecasters and traders, now we are in for part 2.

Currently both forecasters on Metaculus, as well as Polymarket traders see just above 2,000 cases as a base case for 2026. Last year though, the initial forecast was way lower than the final print - let's hope it's not the case this year.

#5 Discord IPO

We've been hearing rumors about Discord IPO for quite some time. Now it seems we are getting it by end of June.

Yesterday a rumor leaked that Discord filed confidentially for an IPO. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are leading the effort, that could still be suspended, as supposedly deliberations are ongoing. Traders though see the rumor as a good signs things are going in the IPO direction.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So today we are trying to figure out what the moves across various markets on Middle East tell us. With a small bonus of a curious Epstein files resolution.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Another Longshot Hit

The truth machine glitched again, this time in relation to Epstein files.

Traders were pretty sure we won't see another batch anytime soon, assured by a sheer volume of files to comb through. Yet some... ambitious trader keeps constant track on the files and even a single change in the repository is enough to resolve the market. I guess be cautious about who you are trading against.

#2 Tensions In Iran

Reports on protests in Iran are making some traders more and more confident we will see another showdown between Israel and Iran.

But that's not all - a strong posture from president Trump surely helped. In the meantime the protests grown in severity while we hear the first rumors about cities falling. These are surely false for now, but they add an interesting piece to the whole situation.

#3 Iran In The Crosshairs

The UK is also potentially joining the action.

The market on the UK designating the IRGC a terrorist organization rose sharply on no news. But we know that the US has been moving military equipment to and through the UK bases, indicating that the UK might take part in some action against Iran. And this might push the topic of IRGC back into the news cycle there, as it was brought up last year around the 12 day war.

#4 The African Front

Adding to tensions in the Middle East, East Africa is also experiencing some turmoil.

We noticed strange movement on the Somaliland recognition market. Surely there are a few candidates for recognition, but many see the Somaliland situation sidelined with the current situation in Iran - who is wrong?

#5 Lebanon?

On top of everything the odds of Israel launching a major ground offensive against Lebanon rose sharply.

This happens despite the fact that a supposed Israeli insider is building a position on Israel to strike Iran by the end of the month market. Looking back at all the Middle East markets highlighted today, it seems that traders are sure some action is coming, but are completely clueless about the direction.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

This is a Venezuela-heavy brief as we also examine Machado's chances of returning to Venezuela any time soon to fight for power. Outside of the western hemisphere we also noticed a sharp change in the odds of the next president of Portugal.

Lastly we look at Apple as some believe 2026 will be a year of surprises.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Show Must Go On

To anyone who was expecting a swift trial we have some bad news.

This story captures the change in sentiment perfectly - while it might be tempting to rush a case like this, the last one that was even remotely similar (the Noriega case) took 20 months between an arrest and the beginning of a jury trial. There is plenty to happen and even more news stories to push, along with the message of the US military greatness.

Now it is likely we shall know the date on March 17th as this is the next scheduled date for Maduro to appear in court.

#2 Iconic Mugshots

While the Trump administration juices the Maduro capture story, they could at least entertain us with his mugshot, but it seems we won't see it soon.

Traders were also initially bullish to see the mugshot soon, but now not only don't they see it released in 3 days, but also the January 17th market chances are now at 21%.

Till we see it we need to be content with Trump's iconic mugshot. Or AI generated photos.

#3 Can Machado Gain The Power?

For now it seems that the biggest loser of the operation in Venezuela is the opposition.

Neither the legitimate president, nor the opposition leader Machado, who recently won a Nobel Peace Prize that she dedicated to Trump, are taken seriously in the conversations about holding power in the country. Per the leaks Machado lacks seriousness and respect in Trump's eyes, but more importantly, she didn't refuse to accept the Nobel Peace Prize.

Imagine spending your life fighting the regime, crying for a US intervention, only to be sidelined when it finally happens.

#4 Portugal's Contested Election

On a lighter note, we have a tight election coming in Portugal, where 4 candidates are within the margin of error to advance to the second round.

Recent polls somewhat stabilized, showing PSD aligned Mendes and Chega leader Ventura advancing to the second round, but the fresh poll from CNN Portugal shows neither advancing. This extremely close race will happen on January 18th, with a very likely second round scheduled for February 8th.

#5 New Apple Product This Year?

Lastly, for some reason traders believe we will see a new product line from Apple this year.

The company is rather famous for lack of any leaks regarding its new products. However, the enthusiasm on the market might be explained by rumors of a foldable iPhone. But is it enough to resolve this market? We are not entirely sure after reading the rules.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

On top of that we are taking a closer look on TrumpRX as well as a possible government shutdown.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Struggle For Power Is On

After the US military took Maduro from Venezuela to face American justice, there is a question of who will lead Venezuela now.

Trump on his press conference said that the US will run Venezuela for the foreseeable future. However, at least officially, there needs to be a head of the Venezuelan state. For now, traders are betting on Maduro's VP, Delcy Rodriguez, but plenty can happen by the end of the year.

#2 No Elections

As the power struggle goes on, traders are skeptical we will see an election in Venezuela anytime soon.

During the press conference, Trump was not shy to admit that the US might run Venezuela for years as it rebuilds the critical infrastructure and extracts oil. While Trump promised the profits will go towards the Venezuelan people, we all know how such things go. However, it's hard to imagine Venezuelans will be worse off than under Maduro - the country has been a total disaster.

#3 Why Not Both?

In the meantime, Iran is experiencing the largest anti-government protest in a long while.

However, as always, there are 2 sides to the story. One thing remains sure though - not only did Trump warn Iran that any violence against the protesters will be met with an American response (presumably a strike), but also military equipment is being flown to Europe, indicating the US is getting ready to act if necessary.

Subscribe for more alpha ;)

#4 Trump Pharmacy Is Coming

After a brief slump in odds, traders once more see strong chances Trump will launch his pharmacy project this month.

For now all we see is a landing page with a promise of a launch this month. Trump is no Elon, but he is also liberal when it comes to deadlines. He even said recently that he has none.

#5 Another Shutdown Averted?

After the historically long shutdown, chances are we will avert the next one.

The record shutdown from last year was ended by a continuing resolution till the January 30th - if the Congress fails to agree on another continuing resolution or a proper budget bill, we can see another partial shutdown by the end of the month.

However traders are skeptical. Are you?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

As thousands of markets resolve, there are at least a few interesting reversals where fortunes were made and lost. We cover the biggest of them today, along with a couple of rogue traders.

Additionally we expose a wash trading / airdrop farming circle on a niche geopolitical market - look below and learn how to identify them.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Better Late Than Never

As 2026 arrived, large amount of markets are due to resolve - 31st of December is the cut-off not only for monthly markets, but also for quarterly and annual ones.

This one was slowly approaching 0 since late September. However, it turns out that there was a US strike on November 29th! Or at least some sources claim there was one. The situation is ambiguous, but Polymarket clarified the strike counts as legitimate.

#2 Rules Make All The Difference

Another interesting end of year case came to light on the Morocco Prime Minister market.

Before, there was no year in the title of the market and most traders assumed the market is about 2025. However, the rules clearly stated that the market is about end of 2026. A few traders noticed it yesterday and bought up majority of open interest as there will be an election in Morocco this year and the prime minister is expected to change by the end of the year.

Even nowadays, there are plenty of missed opportunities on prediction market!

#3 European California

One traders bought a lot of Yes shares on billionaire wealth tax in California markets.

As we learn that many billionaires adjusted their tax residency recently to avoid a potential wealth tax in California, one trader decided it's enough for them to believe it will pass. What can we say, we applaud the conviction!

#4 Elon's Deadline

Last week we highlighted here that Elon promised us Grok 4.20 by Christmas, as we know that Elon never keeps to his deadlines

And expectedly, now even the January 15th market nuked, from over 75% chance of a release to 14% chance at the time of this article. Truly amazing stuff, especially since traders didn't suddenly realize Elon's deadline are fake. They are following a potential xAI insider.

#5 Wash Trading Or Airdrop Famring?

At first glance the Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II market looks like a pretty healthy market with over $40,000 in volume.

However when we look more closely we see big spreads and unusual odds movement. Only a deeper look at top holders reveals what is happening here - all top holders have a nick that look like "NameSurname1234". It's a wash trading / airdrop farming circle. The wash trader / farmer uses specific naming scheme to identify their wallets easily.

As Polymarket airdrop rumors intensify, we can expect to see more of such behavior. And when a market is full of wash traders / farmers, chances are the offered odds are way off of fair value.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today, to honor good moods we don't comment on any war markets, but there are plenty of interesting movements across political and cultural markets. One is even set for a fiery dispute! This and more in today's Morning Brief.

Stay ahead of the game!

Top Movers

#1 No More Epstein Files?

Traders are increasingly bearish we will see more Epstein files by January 9th.

Rumors are the DOJ needs to review 5.2 million pages of files, making a swift publication doubtful. However, there is still a chance for a phased approach. Whatever happens, we can be sure the Epstein files will be a main topic of discussion for quite some time.

#2 No Gold Cards

Despite launching some time ago, gold cards are not likely to be issued anytime soon.

Traders increasingly believe we will not see any gold cards issued by at least end of Q1. The scheme is unorthodox, legally complex and traders just do see demand for it. Or there is some other thesis ready to be uncovered?

#3 A Regrettable Record

It looks like we will breach 2,050 measles cases this year.

Being honest, it's not even up for debate. Traders are now only betting on whether the CDC updates the tracker on time. And since they moved the schedule ahead before Christmas, many are betting they will do so again.

#4 New Finance

After a roller-coaster year, Bitcoin is set to outperform S&P500 this year.

Shouldn't be a shocker, since BTC is a risk asset that had a great year, even with the recent sell off. It definitely set itself apart from other crypto tokens, which are mostly in the red this year.

Do you think we are entering crypto winter? Or will we see more action next year. Us though, we are focused on prediciton markets!

#5 Last Minute Hit?

Some traders are betting big on SZA releasing a new song this year.

There was a song released with SZA as a feature. However some traders believe it should be enough to resolve the market as some platforms present her as a co-singer (we are not sure how to name it here?).

If anything, looks like January 1st will be a busy day for UMA disputers.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So without further ado, click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Greenland is once again a topic as Trump sparked a backlash in Denmark and Greenland after naming an envoy there, Jeff Landry, the governor of Louisiana.

Comment: the Monroe Doctrine looks both south and north.

The Trump admin paused leases for 5 large wind farms that were under construction on the east coast. Cited reason is national security risk.

Comment: wind is dead, conventional and nuclear are the way. It’s no time to fight climate change, energy must be first and foremost cheap.

The DoJ continues to release the Epstein files. They also communicated about finding additional 1 million files that they need to go through.

Comment: considering that Trump is now in full control of the Epstein narrative, the staggered release along with a promise of weeks of new drops means team Trump wants to make this situation about Democrats to hurt them before the midterms. I will be watching the next drops to understand if that is the case.

The Americas

A lot is happening in Venezuela. The US is chasing tankers, while the regime is under a naval blockade. On top of that there are rumors, or rather a direct statement from POTUS, that the US struck a facility in Venezuela on December 24th.

Comment: peace through strength, TACO only works with tariffs.

Nasry Asfura was declared the winner of Honduras presidential election.

Comment: Trump gets what he wants when it comes to South America. There is no other way, no one will come to rescue.

Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son, Flavio, to be the next president. The elecitons will be held in October.

Comment: this will probably be the most interesting election in 2026.

Asia

China launched new, massive military drills around Taiwan.

Comment: this is most likely a response to the announced aid package from the US. But make no mistake, the chance of the actual invasion is extremely low. China is keen to see its approach of a thousand cuts to fruition.

Najib Razak was sentenced to 15 years in prison for abusing power and money laundering in the largest trial yet related to Malaysia’s 1MDB scandal.

Comment: wonder what will happen once the scam center scandal is unraveled.

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate ceasefire.

Comment: negotiations about scam centers are progressing.

Myanmar general election is ongoing.

Comment: does it really matter? The country is in a deep civil war anyway and the junta cannot overcome it.

Middle East & Africa

The US launched strikes against ISIS in Nigeria on the Christmas Eve. The Nigerian government had approved the strikes. Pete Hegseth also warned of more strikes.

Comment: the scramble for Africa.

Somalia’s capital held a municipal election, the first in decades, as Israel recognized Somaliland.

Comment: as above, 2026 will be wild when it comes to Africa. I had it booked for later to be honest.

The Libyan army’s chief of staff died in a plane crash in Turkey, where he had been on an official visit. The cause of the crash remains unknown.

Comment: do I have to repeat myself?

Europe

There was plenty happening around Ukraine. Bilateral meetings between the US and Ukraine and the US and Russia yielded enough of a progress for Zelensky to come to the White House. But nothing came out of the visit as Putin rejected the proposal for a ceasefire to conduct a referendum. However, the deal is supposedly 95% done with US security guarantees already decided.d

Comment: as I wrote on X, there is a vibe shift in the peace process and there is an opportunity to reach an agreement now.

This comes as Russia advances on Siversk, and while Ukraine and Russia deal each other strong blows.

Comment: Russia was and will continue to project strength as it tries to force Ukraine into an unfavorable ceasefire.

France’s National Assembly passed a stopgap bill to keep the government running throughout January. However, there is still a fundamental problem in the ruling aprty not being able to pass the budget.

Comment: as long as Macron is in there is no chance for a consensus.

Business, Finance & Economics

After a very favorable CPI print now we learn that the US GDP grew by 4.3% y/y in Q3.

Comment: Slightly cooked numbers continue to pour to. create an illusion of prosperity.

Silver and gold rally on no apparent news.

Comment: silver is an important element in many processes and its main supply comes from being a byproduct of other mining and smelting. 2026 is going to be interesting.

Uber and Lyft announced they plan to test autonomous vehicles manufactured by Baidu in London next year.

Comment: European auto industry is done…

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. As I focus really hard on Venezuela right now, I will post the video in the next couple of days along with an update on Russia and Indo-Pacific, especially considering the Taiwan escalation.

Stay strong and see you soon!

Trump is definitely in the latter category as he promised us some surprises in the next 2 days. So just to get ready, today we examine key wars, the future GDP numbers and wave bye bye to climate change (maybe).

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Strike Confirmed

People were slow to realize, but 4 days after the radio interview, Trump confirmed the US struck a drug facility in Venezuela.

The anti-cartel operation market resolved, but a military engagement one is still open as the operation was supposedly conducted by the CIA. However, we had significant movements near Venezuela in the recent days that can result in further action.

#2 Friendly Meeting

Trump met with Netanyahu in Mar-a-Lago, but they stopped at a firm handshake this time.

They were talking about many things, Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire or the Iranian threat. And Tump reaffirmed his staunch commitment to Israel. While some traders expect action between the 2 countries, the markets on this are mostly flat:

#3 Ukraine In A Tough Spot

After increasing pressure from Russia in the recent days, Ukraine is surely in a tough spot.

Zelensky had an interview with Fox News, in which he expressed his pessimism about achieving peace in Ukraine. He mentioned how Putin doesn't want peace and that, while Ukraine is ready to compromise over territory, it cannot give it for free.

At the same time we are awaiting for more surprises from Trump, as he promised us some before the end of the year.

#4 We Only Go Up

Traders are increasingly bearish about a recession.

After the Q3 numbers came in at 4.3% y/y growth, traders realized that headline numbers will be massaged to show growth. Welcome to the new reality.

#5 No More Climate Change?

While climate change policies will take a step back due to the current geopolitical challenges, there is one more reason to celebrate for climate change deniers.

Turns out 2025 will be the second hottest year on record. Initial expectations were for 2025 to be the third hottest year, but a rather warm start of the winter pushed it ahead to the second place. Realistically though, even the EU doesn't really care anymore.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we cover Zelensky meeting, Venezuela escalation, a silver rally and more. And this is just a prelude to the 2026.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Crucial Conversations

Ursula von der Leyen did speak with Trump to the joy of many Yes holders.

2 weeks ago there was a big pump on the market, related to another call, but it turned out that Ursula von der Leyen didn't take part in it. This time, while Zelensky was visiting Trump, she did take part in a call with European leaders.

Ultimately though, we didn't get a ceasefire. But we think we got a vibe change that is worthy of an updated thesis from PROPHET.

#2 Unexpected Admission

It has surfaced that on December 26th, Donald Trump phoned to WABC radio program and admitted that the US struck a facility in Venezuela.

Traders are cautiously accumulating shares on the military engagement market, waiting for another confirmation. The fact that the program was 3 days ago and there is no other proof makes some traders anxious. But considering the amount of publicity the issue is getting, we should have Trump answering such question on the next Q&A.

#3 Metal Frenzy

And we are not talking about music.

Silver and gold are rallying on... well, no one is exactly sure. But silver is an important element for many processes and its supply comes mainly as a byproduct of other mining and processing.

2026 is definitely shaping up to be a wild ride.

#4 Uncertainty

2 days left and traders are not sure if we will get 2,050 measles cases.

The CDC should release new numbers tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but some doubt that we will either get high numbers or get them at all. But when it comes to further outlook, take a look here.

#5 Elon's Deadline

Elon's deadline is a one that is so ridiculous that it can never be met.

I have never seen Elon meet a deadline and it seems I won't get that privilege anytime soon. Imagine, next deadline being April 20th.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

And we have it all - from Trump meeting Zelensky, through Ukraine and Sudanese wars, to a problematic 60 minutes episode and a battle for the top Christmas song.

Oh and by the way, Trump also bombed Nigeria, but there were no markets to see. This year the US gives quite some gifts...

Top Movers

#1 Trump Admin Insiders On Polymarket

Turns out some people close to Trump must trade on Polymarket as the odds here jumped hours before Axios broke the story.

There is not much to the story, but we can expect that the attempts to sign a peace deal will not stop very soon. And maybe we will have an interesting presser to watch before the end of the year.

#2 Russians March Forward During Christmas

Just a day after we reported on a possible capture of Huliaipole, the odds jumped to 75/25.

It seems that everyone is now just waiting for ISW to update the map that is used as a resolution source. And since they are known to severely lag the developments on the ground, there is a fierce discussion whether this time will be different.

If we don't see it updated in the next report, expect a lot of volatility.

#3 Sudanese Civil War Update

Just a day after this market went live we can present you with a small update.

Traders assess it is unlikely we see RSF capturing Kadugli by the end of January. Despite the UN evacuating and the city being under siege by RSF, traders see a prolonged fight for Kadugli.

#4 El Salvador Stands Strong

After a bit of drama online, traders think it's unlikely we will see the CECOT story on 60 minutes.

A segment of the story was erroneously released online and for a brief moment was accessible to the wider public. It showed migrants transferred from the US that described supposed horrific experiences. Now some are questioning if Bari Weiss, the CBS editor in chief, is shielding Trump from negative press.

#5 Christmas Classics Fight

Two classics are head to head in this week's Spotify top songs.

Traders are joking about looping their favorite in the background as both songs trade around 50c, despite both having a large lead before. Every single stream matters and this time traders are taking it very seriously ;)

Ultimately, these are also way more fun to watch and participate vs insider markets. While informative, inside information makes the markets an unrewarding experience.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we will try to struck aa lighter note, but we are forced to start with another Epstein market. But it might be a banger during dinner, who knows? Then before we move to more fun stuff, we cover Russian advancements in Ukraine and new markets on Sudanese civil war - we will have a new event to cover in a forward-looking manner!

For entertainment we try to figure out if a daring challenge can be won. All the while we are listening to the two favorites to win the top song on Christmas Day - what's your go to classic?

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein - A Surprising Blackmail

In a shocking reversal, Yes jumped from 3.4c to 100c per share as traders found that Epstein's lawyers blackmailed some victim.

The email exchange details how Epstein's lawyer tried to prevent one of the victims from testifying in the case. It is not exactly the blackmail we all hoped to see (some politician blackmailed for money or protection), but it's a blackmail. And it is enough to resolve the market.

#2 Russia Is Marching Forward

After Russian maps started to show Russia in control of Huliaipole, traders sharply updated the prices on the market.

The ISW map (resolution source) is still showing Russians some 350 yards away from capturing the key intersection to resolve the market, but these are known to be updated with a lag. Traders must expect that the changes in the next 4 days will reflect the supposed reality on the ground.

But regardless, traders are almost certain that Russians will capture the city in the near future as longer timelines trade above 90c.

#3 New Market On The War In Sudan

Polymarket launched new markets around the Sudanese civil war.

It has been one of the bloodiest conflicts in recent times, displacing millions and being home to atrocities visible from satellite images. Now forecasters and punters will have opportunity to price new developments in the war while we will have a new and accurate source to cover this war through the forward-looking news lenses!

#4 A Daring Challenge

In the spirit of predictifying everything, traders are now scrambling to price how likely Alex Honnold is to free solo Taipei 101.

Alex announced his challenge will be streamed live on Netflix on January 23. It surely shapes up to be a nail-biter - do you think he will manage to complete his challenge?

#5 A Christmas Classic

In a surprising turn of events traders are no longer confident Mariah Carey will have the top song on Christmas.

All I Want For Christmas Is You is a household classic, but little brides told me Last Christmas by Wham! might steal the spotlight this year. Personally I don't like either - do you play them at dinner? Let us know in the comments.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But outside of domestic politics, today we covered new, outrageous GPD numbers, a new ATH in stocks and a worrisome spike in measles cases.

Oh and we might have spotted new insiders.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein Saga Continues

As the administration is releasing new batches of Epstein files, people will talk about whose name appeared in them.

We've got quite a lot of mentions, and more and more names are being resolved to Yes on the markets. Now we have former prime minister of Great Britain Tony Blair shooting up in the odds as we await more files. We bet the Epstein files will be a major topic in many houses this holiday season.

#2 Let Them Cook

After releasing wildly optimistic CPI numbers, the BLS released Q3 GDP numbers and things are looking, well... interesting.

They claim the y/y growth was 4.3%, the highest in 2 years. But we won't be the first ones to doubt both numbers (especially since one depends on the other). However, the GDP market will resolve before we will get a proper revision (if we even ever get it), thus traders are now confident that overall 2025 growth will be around 2-2.5%.

#3 Are You Tired Of Winning Yet?

Along with a booming economy, it looks like we are getting a booming stock market as well.

Traders are expecting to see new ATH on S&P500 by the end of the year. We had a bunch of misleading headlines, but the market here is not about the closing price, but the overall high it reaches. Last one was back in October and we are less than 10 points from reaching it. To the moon, right?

#4 Don't Worry

Yesterday traders were worried the CDC might not update the numbers to reach 2,000 cases in time. Now they are worried we will breach 2,050.

Yesterday the CDC dropped a pre-holiday update to the measles cases and we were surprised with 2,012 overall cases. Regardless though of how the market will resolve, 2025 was a record year that we all hope won't be repeated.

#5 A Christmas Gift

It looks like Elon is planning a little surprise by the end of the year.

While Musk is known to tease impossible deadlines, recent launch markets were full of insiders. This time as well, despite no real news the market spiked from ca. 20c for Yes to 38c.

Will we have yet another insider market?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

When devising and deploying a strategy, you actively try to prevent the other side from understanding what are your end goals, while constantly revealing them through your actions.

It’s tempting to end this article right here - after all, it’s a pretty decent alpha. But this is only half of the story. After all, concealing your true intent is not that simple:

1. You can’t write the opposite to what you want to do as it would quickly reveal your true intent.
2. But neither can you play midwit reverse psychology games.

And when it comes to strategy in a democracy, there are people who don’t have access to classified versions and rely on the public one to act, for example your lower level soldiers and politicians. Additionally, it aims to put the population at ease, showing roughly what is the plan going forward.

Ultimately, your National Security Strategy (NSS) needs to be vague enough to not reveal your hand to your opponents, but also detailed and true enough so your military, politicians and population can act accordingly and understand what is (roughly) going on.

Masking Intent

Since the watered-down version of the NSS we see is the child of the real one (if you think there is no 10x more detailed classified version, we need to have a serious conversation), inevitably some details will slip. For an average observer they are invisible, but a curious eye can draw a decent sketch based on the clues.

And that’s what I will do today. There is no use in commenting what is in the NSS - it’s obvious to everyone even remotely interested in global affairs. But there is plenty of value in catching the clues and drawing a picture.

What This NSS Isn’t

Before we go to to my thinking, I believe it’s best to go through some of the commentary that surfaced after the publication and scrutinize it. Some of these “geopolitical analysts” are nothing more than propaganda mouthpieces and it shows.

1. The US Is Abandoning Primacy / Engaging In Offshore Balancing

This is a popular opinion in Poland, propagated by one of the most popular “geopolitical analysts” there (iykyk). In essence, he claims that by showcasing prioritization, the US admits that it can no longer uphold the hegemony and chooses to support regional champions to balance regional adversaries (what he calls offshore balancing; in English of course, to sound more cosmopolitan).

It’s all fine, except it is total bullshit. Yes, the US chooses to support regional partners to use them to balance regional adversaries. It’s hegemony 101. And it is something the US has been doing for decades:

• MENA: Israel
• Asia: Japan, South Korea, Australia to some extent
• Europe: NATO

The main priority of US hegemony is preserving freedom of navigation control over the “freedom” of navigation, not spreading democracy. And to preserve it, the US must sometimes threaten or engage in war halfway across the globe. But the US always knew that it cannot fight multiple major wars at the same time.

It’s quite the contrary - the US is very much interested in maintaining its hegemony, that is why the US prioritizes. It’s just the enemy that is in fact major, because it was left unchecked.

2. The US Is Abandoning Europe

Is it? Last I checked Europe is ahead of the Middle East in the order of priorities. But first things first.

The deal was always simple - security for political alignment and assistance. NATO countries enjoy safety for aligning with the US on security issues and assisting from time to time. Now the US demands just that: “Align with us and we will protect and support you”.

Well, almost. Outside of the fact that the US first supported the war in Ukraine and now it doesn’t. But priorities change and the message from across the pond is understandable:

We can’t support this war effort right now, either do peace on somewhat fair terms or support it yourselves. But we’d rather you focus on different stuff that we could help you in.

Trump is right in saying that Europe is wealthy and should be able to afford its own defense. The mighty Soviet Union is no more and the EU represents the most developed block in the region. There is no demand that Europe should be strong enough to counter China. But Russia is a fair ask. Especially in a brokered peace.

Seeing other priorities, Trump would rather work on Russia to abandon China. But he’s good enough with Europeans fighting, as long as they are the ones paying for it. Because while it deepens the Russian relationship with China, it also weakens both countries. Which isn’t half bad if your second main priority is dominance of the Indo-Pacific.

3. The US Is Doing A 180 Degrees Change

In the end, the US is just adjusting its strategy. It’s not a pivot, it’s a refinement. After all, even during the Biden administration the focus shifted away from the Middle East towards Europe and China. They also tried to reign in Venezuela (although unsuccessfully).

The difference now is that the change is happening quicker. And it’s out in the open rather than hidden behind a veil of distractions.

But the one stark difference between the two administrations is immigration - while the previous one believed (or was paid to believe, unimportant) that illegal immigration is OK as it boosts the labor market, the current one feels it impacts social cohesion too much (and they are most likely right).

Sure, Trump is an unhinged showman with signs of getting too old for the job. But let’s be honest - he’s not the mastermind, he’s the (formerly) witty performer. And overall, the strategy is coherent and makes sense. It tries to address the problem directly and proposes a clear set of goals to succeed. It’s more than we ever got.

And while it’s beyond the scope of my analysis, I think it’s a sign of progress. There are a lot of holes and gaps in the strategy (as I will show later on), but it is the first one to truly realize the size of the problem and to try and solve it

Sacrifices Must Be Made

I took it on myself to read previous National Security Strategies and one thing is clear - while the previous one already recognized the threat from China-Russia axis, it treated it as yet another “pain in the ass” that needs to be handled, rather than a systemic risk to the entire global order. It clearly states the problem the US is facing and sets proper context for further propositions.

The current doc is also different in structure, signifying that it was build from ground up. Both developments are great progress, but we are in 2025 and the global supply chain war started in 2013. The US is late to the game. Thus it chooses priorities.

The new strategy is made from first principles. At its core it recognizes that the US is not omnipotent. It never was. But it establishes clearly that the US seeks to maintain its global hegemony - from technological leadership, through making energy the US main export to ensuring stability around the globe. The core concept of American primacy is alive and well.

What is gone is the presumption that The post cold war order would remain stable forever. That no nation would seek to advance, especially above the US. That the west can forever enjoy overconsumption through cheap eastern labor.

It turns out that goods do not self-appear in the store. China realized it years ago. The US realized it in 2024. Europe is still in denial. But the world moves on.

First Priority - Western Hemisphere

Its foundation lies in “America First”. But it treats “America” very liberally - it means the whole Western Hemisphere, rather than the US, or even North America. The idea behind such an anchor is simple - it’s a belief that a country cannot project strength outside if it’s weak inside.

Trump won the election on that, on the combination of economy, migration and drugs. And the truth is neither can be solved without controlling the whole hemisphere.

Economy

American nations are a natural trading partner for the US. The relative proximity, shared history and abundance of resources + human capital make for a perfect mix that is difficult to find anywhere else in the world. Yet majority of South America is ridden with both economic and societal issues. It is split ideologically, underdeveloped and ridden with team east influences.

Argentina wanted to partner with China to sell its beef. Brazil burns the Amazon to create new soybean fields to undermine the US farmers. Venezuela is a clusterfuck of Chinese, Russian and Iranian influences. Colombia and others are home to cocaine industry, while Mexico grows marijuana and imports fentanyl produce from China.

Central America, outside of El Salvador, is ridden with crime, from simple gang violence, to sophisticated human trafficking networks. Panama wanted to sell canal ports to China!

You can’t develop manufacturing, mining or general trade cooperation in such an environment.

Migration

What would push you to cross 100 km through wild, tropical jungle? Source: FT

Drugs, violence, human trafficking, poverty, instability. Would you want to live in a country ridden with any of them? I suppose not. It’s no wonder that millions of people were looking to go to America. And they got help ;)

The previous administration thought that it can prop up it’s economy by importing cheap labor (or worse). But it forgot (or worse, knew) that by doing so it destroys the social cohesion, prime example being western Europe. Trump administration has a different approach. It wants to enable these countries to prosper, contingent on US energy exports. Based on a simple logic that when a country prospers, there is no outsized emigration.

Drugs

How do you really solve a problem like Kensington? Source: City & State Pennsylvania

Kill hard drugs and legalize soft ones. Trump’s policy in one sentence. The administration sees cocaine, fentanyl and alike as a threat to national security. Any country harboring cartels dealing with these drugs can expect chaos. But at the same time Trump sees marijuana as an opportunity.

An opportunity not only to get some votes in the midterms. But an opportunity for American farmers to grow a highly profitable plant, able to be sold across the region as well as in Europe, where medical marijuana is legal in most countries. Weed is no soybeans, but it gives US farmers a much needed lifeline in a decoupling from China.

Solution

What we see near Venezuela is just the beginning. The US will steamroll through the whole hemisphere (enlist & expand as they call it). First, team east must be eradicated, which means taking control over Venezuela, and by extension Cuba. By the end of next year, neither will look the same.

Then the US will look towards Colombia, Honduras and the likes - the countries that sit on the route between South America and the US. In Venezuela, Cuba and all of these countries the playbook is well-known and tested. El Salvador was the pilot project.

The US will get control either through a military intervention (Venezuela) or by coercion (Cuba, Colombia, Honduras, etc.), install a new government and brutally crack down on any kind of crime. Thousands will go to prison overnight, just like in El Salvador. And then the US companies will start to invest. Of course, it will take months to years rather than ays to weeks.

The toughest nut to crack will be Brazil. But from what we already see, the process of turning it towards the US has already started. Tariffs and sanctions are being dropped in return for shortening Bolsonaro’s sentence from 25 years to less than 2. It’s a gesture of goodwill while the real negotiations are being conducted.

Final aim: the western hemisphere will be a region generating stable demand for US exports while offering attractive investment opportunities. It will also act together on security issues, from the Panama canal, to the Arctic (we shall hear more about Greenland soon).

Second Priority - Indo-Pacific

This part is different to the first. The western hemisphere was clearly presented as the US playground, where it alone sets the rules. Indo-Pacific is a region of clashing interests. Trump presents here a deal to both China and main allies:

1. The main allies must assume part of the trade imbalance so the US is able to re-shore key industries.
2. China can maintain the current position in the pecking order, but it needs to significantly increase domestic consumption and stop its “unfair practices”. It also will also not trade with team west when it comes to high tech and critical industries.
3. The US must form a strategic alliance with India.
4. The US and allies must bring as many middle and low-income countries to team west.
5. China will not seek to control South China Sea or any other critical part of the region.

The US also establishes 2 red lines in the document:

1. The status quo around Taiwan shall not be challenged.
2. No country can control and establish a toll on any sea route in the region.

The strategy is very direct when it comes to the obvious - courting India and protecting sea routes. Because there is no universe in which the US willingly gives either one to China (especially India since the two are natural enemies).

Thus we shall focus in where it is lacking in any detail. While we have a rough idea when it comes to the plan for China, allies and India, we know nothing about 1 bit of the deal - bringing “global south” to team east. This is the real war being waged in the Indo-Pacific - it’s a war for resources and human capital.

South East Asia

Per ASEAN, the South East Asian countries boast a population of over 680 million people. More than whole South America, roughly the same as Europe. And there, population is still growing rapidly, especially in Indonesia.

World’s main nickel producer (Indonesia), rare earths (SEA countries accounting for 20% of global reserves), ca. 50% of global tin reserves, plenty of oil, coal, bauxite (reserves) and other strategically important resources. Proximity to key trade routes (especially Indonesia, which could single-handedly block access to south China).

And yet, the NSS only mentions Thailand and Cambodia out of the whole region. And not in the main body of the document, but in the introduction when mentioning conflicts that Trump ended (unsuccessfully it seems). You could argue that South East Asian countries are mentioned collectively as part of the Global South, where the US argues a new strategy of development financing is needed, but to say it’s vague is an understatement.

In my opinion this is done by design. While “geopolitical analysts” focus on Taiwan policy, relationship with India or increased military burden sharing for Japan and South Korea, they entirely miss the theater in which the fight for Indo-Pacific will happen.

But this is the topic worthy of a standalone article, especially in the context of the Thailand-Cambodia war as well as the situation in Myanmar. Expect it by the end of the year!

Third Priority - Europe

To the shock of the old continent’s elites, the NSS doesn’t really focus on Europe. Instead, it chose to lecture its nations about morals, values and civilizational pride, amplifying the growing rift between once great allies.

But under the veil of emotional reactions lies a simple reality. Trump administration believes that Europe faces a far more dire issue than Russian aggression. There is a clear parallel to the situation in the US - Trump sees migration and wokeness as public enemy number one, and there is plenty of both in Europe.

Trump wants to see Europe undergo the same changes as he is implementing in the US. More conservative governments, focused on fixing internal issues before turning the focus to the outward.

That is why he is pushing for peace with Russia. He sees it as a strategic pause, allowing Europe to get rid of illegal migrants, fix the military and emerge stronger. His speeches and the NSS is pretty clear in suggesting that this alone might discourage Russia from breaking peace a few years down the line.

Fourth Priority - The Middle East

Trump sees the region as solved. Israel is strong enough to counter Iran, but at the same time weak enough so it does not dominate the region over Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Turkey, while mostly autonomous, is a NATO ally. Saudi Arabia was just designated a major non-NATO ally. And Iran is too weak to cause any trouble for the foreseeable future.

As long as energy exports are under US influence, the region does not require constant attention.

Fifth Priority - Africa

Here the administration remains somewhat misguided. It rightfully doesn’t see a reason it should have a prolonged commitment, but it is lacking when it comes to the real solution.

It proposes to upgrade the relationship with some nations, from aid-based to trade and investment-based. However, if they choose to do so, they will be swiftly met by Russian and Chinese resistance.

Africa is definitely a region that got too little attention in the strategy, which might be connected to the fact that Europeans, for whom Africa is a natural place to secure business, are not seen as trustworthy at the moment.

Holes, Mistakes And Outlook

All strategies sound great when you put them on paper. The real question is though, how can the adversaries react to it to counter it? How can team east derail the efforts of the Trump administration?

First and foremost, team east should (and will) focus on Africa. While the US is busy in the western hemisphere and Europe is fighting the existential war with Russia, China and Russia should incentivize and coerce African nations into team east. From development financing to military coups, we already see it happening.

This way, team east can secure resources and demand for its exports. And this will cost Europe dearly. From continued instability and migration to pressure on main trade routes to Europe to resources, that were and should be under European control.

Second priority is Europe. Russia sees the rift between European nations and the US and is using it to its advantage. Contrary to popular western reports, domestic situation in Russia is pretty good and it is more than capable of fighting a prolonged war in Ukraine. It is also adept in hybrid warfare, destabilizing European nations. It is in team east’s interest to maintain maximalists demands during peace talks while engaging with America. Best case scenario - Europe is left alone to deal with Russia as this is the scenario in which NATO can and will be tested.

Third priority is a dual one. On the one side, team east should try its best to lure South East Asia away from the US. And it can buy itself time to do so by forcing the US to commit to western hemisphere for too long.

Ultimately team east will aim to overstretch the US capabilities, forcing it to do what it has explicitly written it will - to prioritize. It will aim to win Africa and severely weaken Europe. It will do what it can to prolong engagements in the western hemisphere. But the ultimate fight will be for the South East Asia.

And to give you a teaser for the upcoming SEA deep dive, it’s not all about Thailand-Cambodia conflict. I’ll also cover Myanmar, and most importantly the Strait of Malacca & Indonesia.

Prediction Markets

I am holding both short and long-term US x Venezuela military engagement Yes

Western hemisphere being the main priority of the current administration combined with the current US military posture in the region makes me confident we will see a proper military engagement in the region eventually and I’m keeping my position, rolling them forward a bit as the time goes.

I am also holding a small amount of No ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia by the end of the year:

I will dive deeper into the region (so keep in mind both my sizing will change and my positioning can change) a week or so from now, but as we currently stand, we are poised to see more action in SEA in the foreseeable future.

Also coming soon, we shall have more markets around the region. From pure trade arrangements to more fluffy stuff like strait closures, treaties signed and alliances made.

I also aim to use the insight around Africa to counter elections in specific regions, of which I will keep you posted.

Wrap up

I do hope you enjoyed this piece. For me it was quite a journey - it made me realize how different, more obscure regions around the world impact global foreign policy and the cold war between team east and team west.

I’ll most probably put it in the name, but this is a part 1, a prelude to my deep dive on the Indo-Pacific. 12 months ago I was still exploring next frontiers. Now the whole situation is more clear.

Stay strong and see you soon!

Beyond the above, we touch on Warner Bros. acquisition news and look briefly on the Middle East.

Oh and we reevaluate the "prediction market supercycle" claims - who knows, maybe this is it?

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Moar Files

Turns out the Trump admin is faster than anticipated.

Only yesterday we highlighted these markets, only to show them resolved today. The DOJ published a second drop of the files, pushing a flurry of markets to resolve as several prominent people are named there, Elon Musk, Barack Obama and Alec Baldwin among them.

This drop reportedly features more mentions of Trump.

#2 No Part 2 In Syria

Traders seem to be unsure on how to price the next US strike on Syria.

After unconfirmed reports of new strikes, traders once again are bearish on renewed bombing in the country. After Friday's strikes the situation quieted down a bit, however Pete Hegseth vowed this is not the end of action.

#3 Thailand Is Not Backing Down

Traders are still optimistic about a ceasefire by the end of January, but they tempered their expectations vis a vis Thai posture.

Despite tomorrow's ceasefire negotiations, traders see small chances it will lead to a quick end of hostilities. Thailand remains keen on recognizing new realities on the ground, while Cambodia is not exactly looking to capitulate. And this time, we don't have Trump using coercive diplomacy to force the resolution.

Not that it was effective beyond a short-term photo-op.

#4 Warner Bros. Saga Continues

Traders are once again optimistic about Paramount chances of acquiring Warner Bros. after Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $40.4 billion for the deal.

Additionally Paramount upped the break fee to $5.8 billion. All in an effort to prevent Netflix from gaining near-monopoly on streaming market. Warner Bros. is the owner of HBO MAX service. If Netflix manages to close the deal, it will be the biggest streaming service provider, having close to 50% of global market share.

#5 New Is Here

Did you ever think CME will offer sports betting on its main page? Neither did we, but here we are.

The new Fanduel x CME prediction market platform is live, and we have one more competitor that will spend millions to attract users in 2026 and beyond. In what was a niche space only a year ago, now we have major players from the gaming and finance world making moves to capitalize on the popularity of prediction markets.

We often laugh about the "prediction market supercycle" posts, but if it's not now, then when?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

In foreign affairs we went over Ukraine war and Thailand-Cambodia conflict as both are now in ceasefire negotiation stage. We also found that Netanyahu might be thinking about bombing Iran again.

Lastly we scrutinize measles market, as rules might prove to be problematic for traders and predictors.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein Files Are Here

Traders made and lost hundreds of thousands on the initial release of the Epstein files, as both side were partly right.

The Trump administration released new files, but it failed to produce all of them before the deadline. We are expecting more batches to be released, however traders are not optimistic we will see more by Friday.

For now we are left with the initial release, which offers a stark image of some of the elites.

#2 Putin vs Little Pigs

After Putin's recent comments on Ukraine war traders adjusted their odds of a Trump x Putin conversation.

Ukraine peace effort had a busy week, but it was hardly optimistic. The EU agreed on a financing package for Ukraine, Putin called European leaders "little pigs" and talks in Florida yielded no progress at all.

It certainly seems that peace is as elusive as it ever was.

#3 Netanyahu Strikes Back?

After recent comments from Netanyahu traders sharply adjusted Israel x Iran ceasefire being broken odds.

Netanyahu wishes to discuss new strikes on Iran with Trump as Israeli intelligence assesses that Iran is once again building its ballistic missile program. It is widely understood that Israel didn't finish the job in the summer. However, Iran was severely weakened and is not posing a serious threat for the foreseeable future. But Netanyahu seems to like to stir the pot.

#4 Thailand x Cambodia - Cautiously Optimistic

Traders are cautiously optimistic of a Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire after it was announced that a new round of talks will happen on Wednesday.

ASEAN foreign ministers met recently to address the issue of the war between the 2 countries. They are trying to defuse the conflict, however Thailand seems to understand it has the upper hand as it continues to maintain strong posture, probably to get significant concessions from Cambodia.

#5 Measles Market Rules

While no one doubts we will see over 2,000 measles cases, some traders see an issue with market rules here.

The market will resolve based on the number of cases on the CDC website on the end of day on December 31st 2025. However, it is a public holiday season and many doubt that CDC will update the numbers in time for the market to resolve. If anything, it's another cautionary tale around markets and rules.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

A truly diversified coverage today, but the most shocking story is definitely no. 3 as after the recent CPI release, there are serious accusations about numbers being faked! Read below to see why and what it means for prediction markets on economic indicators.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Manhunt Is Over

Traders were not looking for a quick arrest of the Brown University shooter, and while they weren't exactly right, they weren't wrong either.

The suspect in the shooting was just found dead, which practically prevents him from being arrested. Authorities also believe that the man, found with a self-inflicted gunshot wound in a storage unit, was responsible for MIT professor shooting.

#2 Europe x Ukraine - Fake Solidarity

While the European nations agreed on a way forward when it comes to funding Ukraine, they are leaving the frozen Russian assets on the table for now.

Traders were right to be skeptical - Europe couldn't reach an agreement to use the frozen Russian assets and deferred the plan, mandating the Commission to continue working on it. In the meantime, they will loan Ukraine $90 billion, backed by EU budget.

#3 Fake It Till You Make It

Traders were expecting to see ca. 3% inflation in December, however they were surprised by blatantly fake November numbers published by the BLS.

And it's not a conspiracy theory - Nick Timiraos himself calls out adjustments that are against any logic. While we suspected the released numbers to be "massaged" for quite some time now, the fakes were never so obvious. If anything, such practices make trading economic indicators pointless.

#4 Is TikTok Saga Finally Over?

After more than 2 months of silence, traders betting Yes on TikTok sale can feel vindicated.

Axios is reporting that the deal was apparently reached. It is supposed to be signed in January, making Oracle, along with other US investors, a 45% owner of the US entity. Ca. 33% will be held by the affiliates of current ByteDance investors and the remaining ca. 20% will be held by ByteDance. We are looking forward to seeing more details, but from the first glance it looks like the deal is mostly a cosmetic adjustment, considering that US investors are still a minority.

#5 DraftKings Saga Continues

TikTok saga might be anding, but the DraftKings one continues.

Traders are bonding this market after a story broke out about DraftKings launching a prediction market platform in 38 states. The news has been scrapped from the internet, but traders remain optimistic that we will see it once again before the end of the year. It certainly looks ready to launch, considering such a note was sent to news outlets.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are also tracking the tariff dividend market after the mostly unimpressive Trump address to the nation.

Then we move our attention to wars in Europe and South East Asia, where we have tense days ahead. Lastly, we follow a potential insider on the DraftKings market.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Trump's Betrayal?

As the deadline to release the Epstein files approaches, trades become increasingly bearish, pushing the chances of a timely release below 50%.

The move isn't based on any specific news as far as we can tell. It's due to a single trader amassing over 1.5 million shares on No! Is it an insider? We honestly doubt it, but it posies up to be the most exciting market this week as on the Yes side we have a cohort of Polymarket OGs.

#2 Warrior Dividend

The odds of a tariff dividend being created in 2025 rose sharply after Trump announced a warrior dividend of $1,776 for all military personnel.

The announcement came during Trump's prime time address to the nation last night. Despite Trump's claim that the dividend will be paid out before Christmas, traders have their doubts: first, there are doubts around the framing of the dividend as it needs to relate directly to tariffs, second some traders doubt Trump will fulfill his promise due to legal challenges.

#3 Ukraine's Decisive Moment

Despite the outmost importance of securing funding for Ukraine (if the war is to continue), traders remain bearish that the current European Council meeting will result in Russian froze assets use agreement.

The proponents of using Russian assets to finance Ukraine are hoping to convince Belgium to allow for it, since the country is the current custodian of the assets. However, Belgium is looking for strong guarantees it wouldn't be left alone with the burden in case the war ends. It also has powerful backers - Italy is also against the proposal.

We are poised for nerve-wracking 2 days as the European countries begin their negotiations.

#4 Limited Optimism In SEA

After a brief bullish streak, the chances of a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia slumped below 30%.

The odds spiked initially on the rumors that the Chinese special envoy is coming to Thailand and Cambodia to mediate a ceasefire. However, the current Thai PM debunked the story in his last interview. With only 13 days till the end of the year, chances for a ceasefire are slim without any visible effort from either the US or China.

#5 DraftKings - Follow The Insider

Despite only 13 days left in the year, traders are piling in on Yes shares on the DraftKings to launch a prediction market in 2025.

They are following a supposed insider. Is it a case of hopium? Or will we really see the highly anticipated platform this year? Let us know in the comments if you hold any side.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of wars, we look back on federal jobs cuts, which have a big surprise to the upside! We also share our candid opinion on the who will Trump talk to markets.

Lastly we have a big update on Warner Bros. acquisition saga (something tells us it's not the last one).

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 More Cuts Than Expected

The job market is in a bad condition and at least some of it can be blamed on the federal jobs cuts.

Traders sharply adjusted their odds after shutdown layoffs held steady in government data. Looks like DOGE might reach its target after being disbanded.

#2 Not Even A Merry Christmas?

Looks like Trump won't be talking to Putin anytime soon.

Traders sharply lowered their odds of Trump x Putin phone call after the previous statement about a call between the two was adjusted to reflect that this call happened on October 16th. In the meantime we just wander how many of these markets misresolve due to conversations not being revealed to the public.

#3 No Conversation And No Truce

Along with dropping odds on a conversation between Trump and Putin, chances of even a unilateral Christmas truce dropped sharply.

Contrary to previous attempts, the current one is being proposed by Ukraine, and rejected by Russia. This time Russia claims that if no peace deal is reached by Christmas, such a short-lived truce would only allow Ukraine to catch its breath before further fighting.

#4 War-like End Of The Year

Ukraine ceasefire is not the only one we are not getting this year.

Traders are increasingly sure we won't see a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia as fighting shows no signs of easing. Trump tried, and failed to secure peace as we continue to see strong posture from Thai side that is increasingly focused on targeting notorious casinos and scam centers.

#5 Netflix Jumps Ahead

Netflix is once again the favorite to acquire Warner Bros. after the shareholders of the latter were told to reject the hostile takeover bid offered by Paramount.

Despite the newer bid being more attractive, Warner Bros. is committed to Netflix at this point. But if you ever read Barbarians at the Gate you know that plenty can happen before we see the end of the process.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.