Good morning! Today's brief is dominated by geopolitics as we have developments seemingly in every corner of the world. From Iran to Venezuela, from Portugal to Somalia.

Barely, but we also managed a segment on rules today - give it a look, it might save you a lot of trouble!

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Iranian Protests

https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31

Despite almost no coverage from Iran since January 8th, traders are more and more convinced we will see the fall of the Islamic Republic regime soon.

Inflation (and general economic conditions) protests are happening daily in Iran since December 28th. Initially peaceful, now reports say that thousands of Iranians died as protests turned more and more violent.

However, it is now difficult to differentiate between propaganda and real videos from Iran - we see more volatility in Iran related markets.

#2 Strike Frenzy

https://polymarket.com/event/next-country-us-strikes-391/will-the-us-strike-somalia-next-637

It's not a mater of if, or even when. It is a matter of who's next!

Traders are no longer predicting if the US strikes - now they are predicting who is next. And despite strong media focus on Iran, traders see Somalia as the favorite to receive some American military tech. After initial strikes on January 8th, there is clearly an expectation of a longer campaign against ISIS.

One can wonder if America isn't stretching itself too thin...

#3 Portuguese Meltdown

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-qualify-for-the-second-round-of-the-portugal-presidential-election/will-antnio-jos-seguro-qualify-for-the-second-round-of-the-2026-portugal-presidential-election

Luis Marques Mendes was probably looking for a moving company in December and only 2 weeks later he can wave goodbye to the Belem Palace.

In a shocking reversal, recent polls in Portugal presidential election show new favorites - Cotrim, Seguro and Ventura. This three are now inches away in what is shaping up to be the most interesting election in Portugal... ever?

#4 Venezuela On The Brink

https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-684/will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-451

At least someone is not convinced we've seen it all in Venezuela.

Despite some promising reports from Venezuela, we recently had a spike in Delcy odds to be out of power by the end of the year. A country like that surely can be volatile. It remains to be seen if it was a sharp trade or a missclick.

#5 Rules Above All

https://polymarket.com/event/aziz-akhannouch-out-as-morocco-prime-minister-by-december-31-2026/aziz-akhannouch-out-as-morocco-prime-minister-by-december-31-2026

Morocco prime minister market might become another dispute.

Initially, the market had a typo in the rules, stating the market is for end of 2026, despite not having such info in the title. Now, with the title updated, the rules poise another challenge - by wording, Aziz must cease to become prime minister between October 2 and December 31 2026.

Despite this, traders feel certain about the outcome, while we urge you to always read the rules!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.