Good morning! What a week, huh? And it's only Tuesday... This meme definitely encapsulates my mood this year:

But jokes aside, today we cover the domestic, the international and even 1 election! Plenty of interesting markets, sharp moves and volatile situations. Come on in and stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 On The Way Out?

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-828/will-pam-bondi-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-before-2027-747

The odds of Pam Bondi being the first to leave the Trump Cabinet jumped sharply.

Traders adjusted their positioning on the news that Trump perceives her as weak and ineffective after her handling of the Epstein files. However, shortly after the news broke, Trump defended his AG. And we already see a slight dip in the odds.

#2 A Case Of The Century

https://polymarket.com/event/jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by/jerome-powell-out-from-fed-board-by-may-30

Pam Bondi might still be useful to Trump after the news that the DoJ is investigating Jerome Powell.

The investigation is into his Congress testimony about the costs of the Fed building renovation. But the real motive is the interest rate - Trump wants it significantly lower while Powell is all about the central bank independence. Trump also wants to show to the upcoming Fed chair that it is no joke.

If the Trump administration decides to move ahead with the case we are in for a SCOTUS ruling at the end of the road. And the case will determine the role of the Fed.

And while the situation plays out, Powell might play defiant and stay on the board after his chairman term ends, going against the tradition, but being fully in his rights to do so - his term as a governor ends only in 2028. After all, he hired a really aggressive law firm to defend him.

#3 Moar Strikes

https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31/us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31

Yesterday it was Somalia, now it is Colombia.

Trump definitely seems trigger-happy as traders struggle to figure out his actions. The move on the Colombia market is based on no news as the last info around Colombia strikes was 4 days ago. Maybe someone has a good fundamental thesis?

We, in contrast, are waiting for the Colombia election this year. Sun Tzu would approve of waiting, but will Trump?

#4 Peace Efforts

https://polymarket.com/event/european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantee-by-june-30/european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantee-by-june-30

Traders are cautiously bullish on European security guarantees to Ukraine after a meeting last week.

The coalition of the willing agreed on a framework of security guarantees to Ukraine in case of peace. While we are a long way from them becoming tangible, they seem as an essential part of any future peace deal between the two countries.

#5 From An Underdog To The Favorite

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-qualify-for-the-second-round-of-the-portugal-presidential-election/will-antnio-jos-seguro-qualify-for-the-second-round-of-the-2026-portugal-presidential-election

How the fate has turned for Antonio Jose Seguro.

Only a month ago he was an afterthought in the race for the Belem Palace. Now his is the frontrunner in every poll this year and he should cruise to the second round after the vote this Sunday. Especially since the other favorite to advance is now struggling with a sexual harassment allegation.

We perceive it though as a cheap move and not really consequential for the election results.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.