Good morning! Today might be the day of the tariffs and we bet all eyes are turned towards SCOTUS. While pundits argue what we might see, traders quantified their information to give us straight probabilities!
Outside of domestic politics, we are looking at the Middle East today, where we see strong probabilities of action in Iran as well as Phase II ceasefire in Gaza.
Lastly we once again examine the Portuguese election and showcase new monthly markets for measles - the outlook is rather bleak here.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 The Reckoning Day
Traders believe we will see the SCOTUS ruling on Trump tariffs soon, giving it 85% probability before the end of the month.
We have rumors that we can expect the news as soon as today. However the overall vibe is not optimistic - not only traders see little chances of Trump winning, but also Trump himself wrote that reversing tariffs might be impossible.
The market on the ruling was initially cautiously optimistic, but the odds dipped to ca. 30% after the oral arguments indicated that SCOTUS might go against the administration.
#2 Waiting In Anticipation
While the world awaits Trump's action regarding Iran, traders are already trying to anticipate follow-up moves.
There is now close to 50% chance we will see a coup attempt in Iran by the end of June. As defined, some state actor or faction would need to try to take power from the current one.
However, after days of no action (or even preparation) from the US, the protests are not as widespread as before. Rumors also are the regime will start hanging the protesters it caught today.
#3 Gaza Is Back In The Headlines
While situation in Iran is still unstable, Gaza might be looking at phase II of the ceasefire.
There was a sharp spike in phase II odds before January 31st recently, giving us 46% chance we will see the phase II. Rumors are we might get an announcement today, but not everyone seems convinced based on the price action. After all, we've already seen a few false flags in phase II markets.
#4 An Amazing Upset In The Making
Portuguese presidential election continues to surprise as the former 80% favorite to win now has less than 10% chances of victory.
After Christmas break, Mendes started to slide in the polls in favor of Seguro and Cotrim. Part of the reason is lack of online presence which we highlighted earlier. However, since we last reported on the issue, it seems that Cotrim has some troubles amid the sexual harassment allegations while Seguro seems to be cruising towards the second round.
#5 Monthly Measles Markets
After last year's measles markets surprised us all and attracted quite a lot of volume, this year Polymarket increased granularity providing monthly markets for increased forecast accuracy.
And what can we say, the picture for January looks bleak. Traders are virtually certain we will see over 200 cases in January, putting us on track to beat last year's record. And to say even more, traders now give 42% chance we will see over 5,000 case this year!
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.