Good morning! We had some technical difficulties in the last 2 days, but rest assured we are monitoring the situation for you.
As we had a little break, today we have a classic mix of geopolitics, politics, technology and social issues that should bring you up to speed with global developments.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Mullahs Live To See Another Day
Violent protests in Iran, combined with encouraging comments from Trump, made a lot of traders think the regime change might be coming.
The chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by the end of the month went as high as 30%, before trending down to the current 9%, after an apparent deescalation between Iran and the US.
One could say that 30% was overly optimistic, but we do know that Trump held off the strikes at the last minute. Chances are, this isn't the last time this year we hear about Iranian regime change.
#2 The Consolation Prize
One could say that Trump got what he wanted. But we do know that such an action never feels quite right.
Machado met with Trump and gave him her Nobel Peace Prize. She hoped for a path towards Venezuela presidency, but all she got for now is a nice swag bag from team Trump.
In the end, Trump respects strength.
#3 Unclear Situation
Portuguese elections are in 2 days and the situation couldn't be less clear.
After Mendes lost his pole position this year, Seguro came out as a clear favorite to win, despite the volatility in the first round winner market. But we do feel that the market might be once again overconfident.
The polls are extremely close in this extraordinary election, a first in decades that will go to the second round.
#4 Slop Squared
The first news about possible ads in ChatGPT was leaked over a month ago.
But now we see unusual action on the end of March market as chances increased from 22% to 64% on no apparent news. Will we see ads soon? Probably, as OpenAI-related markets were filled with insiders recently.
#5 Not So Fast
Someone is not convinced we will see over 2,000 measles cases this year, despite Metaculus forecast and early numbers being high.
We are not sure it is a good time to oppose the case as there are no announcements on any new measures aimed at containing the spread - maybe it's a buying opportunity?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.