Good morning! Welcome back after the weekend. Today we are looking inside America and beyond. Despite geopolitics dominating our daily headlines, in today's morning brief the focus is on elections - from the midterms campaign to Thailand. You could say we look past the drama.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 A Fall From Grace
Tim Waltz is on a really bad streak since 2024. First, a lost election. Then all the jokes about him and his family. Then the daycare center scandal and ICE protests. And now the investigation.
But just this time the governor of Minnesota might get lucky - despite the investigation into Waltz being announced, traders give only 39% chance he will be charged. We would add here that the whole situation is partly political due to the midterms - it's part of the campaign for GOP to secure the House and the Senate.
#2 The Apprentice
I remember saying back in October that Trump loves to make a good show out of anything, and the choice of the next Fed chair is his cue to play.
Since late November we had a flurry of news on the 4 candidates above, with each having his moment. As expected with any good show, it's been a wild ride. But if you want to get up to speed and beyond on the issue, you need to read Ivan's deep dive on Substack.
#3 Situation Is Clear
Many were saying that while the presidential election in Portugal might go to the second round the first time in a long time, it will be decided in the first round anyway. And it seems they (we) were right.
Antonio Jose Seguro decisively won the first round with Andre Ventura coming in second. Ventura represents the Chega party, which is an alt-right party akin to AfD in Germany - he has a har ceiling with majority of Portuguese people unwilling to vote for him.
#4 Third Time Is A Charm
Thailand is approaching a legislative election - in 20 days we shall know the results, but then the tiresome process of building a government will start.
And it isn't such an easy job - the currently leading party is a third incarnation of a party that wins elections, but is unable to form government with any other one as among other polarizing issues, it is looking to reform the lese-majeste law. The law is extremely harsh today and the reform has public support, but politically it is seen as an attack on the monarchy.
However currently the party is focusing more on the scam centers in a bid win a landslide victory.
Ultimately, the real game will be played only after the election.
#5 Relationships Above All?
SpaceX is looking to IPO and traders believe they nailed the leading bank.
Elon Musk has historically worked with Morgan Stanley on every major deal as he has a relationship with Anthony Armstrong, among others. While Armstrong is now the CFO of xAI, Morgan Stanley still handles the majority of Musk's finances and seems a natural favorite to get SpaceX.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.