Good morning! 2026 is slowly rolling in as we traders are trying to settle old bonds and markets while we search for new ones to deploy capital for 2026.
As thousands of markets resolve, there are at least a few interesting reversals where fortunes were made and lost. We cover the biggest of them today, along with a couple of rogue traders.
Additionally we expose a wash trading / airdrop farming circle on a niche geopolitical market - look below and learn how to identify them.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Better Late Than Never
As 2026 arrived, large amount of markets are due to resolve - 31st of December is the cut-off not only for monthly markets, but also for quarterly and annual ones.
This one was slowly approaching 0 since late September. However, it turns out that there was a US strike on November 29th! Or at least some sources claim there was one. The situation is ambiguous, but Polymarket clarified the strike counts as legitimate.
#2 Rules Make All The Difference
Another interesting end of year case came to light on the Morocco Prime Minister market.
Before, there was no year in the title of the market and most traders assumed the market is about 2025. However, the rules clearly stated that the market is about end of 2026. A few traders noticed it yesterday and bought up majority of open interest as there will be an election in Morocco this year and the prime minister is expected to change by the end of the year.
Even nowadays, there are plenty of missed opportunities on prediction market!
#3 European California
One traders bought a lot of Yes shares on billionaire wealth tax in California markets.
As we learn that many billionaires adjusted their tax residency recently to avoid a potential wealth tax in California, one trader decided it's enough for them to believe it will pass. What can we say, we applaud the conviction!
#4 Elon's Deadline
Last week we highlighted here that Elon promised us Grok 4.20 by Christmas, as we know that Elon never keeps to his deadlines
And expectedly, now even the January 15th market nuked, from over 75% chance of a release to 14% chance at the time of this article. Truly amazing stuff, especially since traders didn't suddenly realize Elon's deadline are fake. They are following a potential xAI insider.
#5 Wash Trading Or Airdrop Famring?
At first glance the Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II market looks like a pretty healthy market with over $40,000 in volume.
However when we look more closely we see big spreads and unusual odds movement. Only a deeper look at top holders reveals what is happening here - all top holders have a nick that look like "NameSurname1234". It's a wash trading / airdrop farming circle. The wash trader / farmer uses specific naming scheme to identify their wallets easily.
As Polymarket airdrop rumors intensify, we can expect to see more of such behavior. And when a market is full of wash traders / farmers, chances are the offered odds are way off of fair value.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.