Good morning! Another day without a major global event, feels a bit like vacation. But worry not, there are plenty of moves on prediction markets to keep us engaged.
So today we focus a bit on the domestic situation in the US, especially in Minnesota. There were also some movements around Machado. But the main case of the week should be the first sentencing in the failed South Korean coup trials - we shall see more volatility there as we approach tomorrow.
And lastly, we showcase a new market type on Polymarket - check it out and let us know if you like it.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Anti-Immigration Protests
While Trump refused to invoke the Insurrection Act for now, traders still give it 36% chance by the end of March.
With the 2026 midterms campaigns starting, immigration will once again be a huge issue. Both Republicans and Democrats will weaponize it to the max, thus we might hear about the Insurrection Act more and more this year.
#2 Epstein Is Not Done Yet
With all the chaos around the world Epstein took somewhat of a backseat, but traders still remember that millions of files are due for a release - they give 62% chance we will see a new batch this month.
This comes as the media tries to push the White House a bit - after all it's been a months since we were supposed to see them all. But both the traders and we believe that we will see more. It's just the release time that will be now adjusted according to the news cycle.
#3 Only Hard Power Matters
Despite a somewhat positive coverage of Machado's meeting with Trump, we perceive it as a total failure for the opposition leader - and so do the traders it seems, giving only 1% chance she will be back in Venezuela this month.
As Trump showed repeatedly, Machado is not crucial or central to US plans in the country. But she is still a fugitive there. All of that makes her return unlikely in the near future, especially since she has no arms behind her.
#4 Korean Court Drama
Over a year after the failed coup, Koreans are still waiting for convictions of the key people behind the scheme. And now, as the trials come to an end, traders expect sentences to be more lenient.
They give now 48% chance Han Duck-soo will spend between 5 and 10 years in prison for his role. The former prime minister is accused of being the mastermind behind the coup. For his sentencing tomorrow, the prosecutors wanted 15 years in jail.
Are some traders in the know? Or is it just a speculation? We shall see soon enough.
#5 Most Wanted Markets
Lastly, Polymarket is trying out new markets - this time it is the most wanted list.
We like to highlight some of the more informative market categories and this one fits the bill. With focus on crime, the effectiveness of FBI is surely worth tracking, especially when it comes to the high-profile cases.
Do you think 73% here is low or high?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.