Good morning! Today all eyes are on Davos. Both the news and traders watch for new rumors as volatility spreads across markets - from who will Trump speak to to actual deals being made.
This and more in today's forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Tariffs Stay In Place (For Now)
Chances of the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs this month fell sharply after traders realized there are no more slots ahead of the 4-week recess.
As of this morning SCOTUS enters a 4-week recess and thus the next possible date for the ruling is on February 20th. And till this time, Trump tariffs get to live and pressure Europe on Greenland.
#2 Dick Swinging Contest
Speaking of Greenland, Macron and Trump engaged in a dick swinging contest yesterday.
Trump leaked a message from Macron, asking to speak with him in Davos. Then Macron said he has no intention of doing so after all. All the while the tensions between the US and Europe rise and traders get a taste of massive volatility - they still believe there is 54% chance the two will talk this month.
#3 Rainmaker
Everyone knows Trump is a deal man, but after initially being on the fence, traders don't see an imminent deal on Greenland.
It's probably the hottest topic of the week and yet traders see only 23% chance we will see a deal by the end of March. It's hard to imagine tensions any higher, especially after Bessent called Denmark irrelevant. But maybe Davos can change the course of action. We heard it's a magical place ;)
#4 (In)decision
Amid all the chaos, traders see little reason Trump should focus now on the Fed chair nomination, giving only 34% chance Trump will announce his nominee by the end of the month.
Trump is know to delay important personnel decisions, as he did eg. with his running mate in 2024. And traders remember that as Bessent comments didn't really reassure the market.
There is also the case of an investigation into Powell, we see the decision being pushed even further into the future considering everything that is happening.
#5 Elon's Deadline
Elon not keeping to his deadlines is hardly a secret, but now it seems he is outdoing himself with the release of Grok 4.20.
So far the only thing we know about the model is that it appears to be a decent trader. But outside of that, there is little clarity from either Musk or xAI team. Do you think we will see it by the end of the month?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.