Good morning! Today we are packed with Davos news and with them the market moves.
From Greenland to Venezuela to Ukraine - geopolitics is dominating news cycle this week. But we wouldn't be ourselves if we didn't point you to some less obvious markets showing signs of coming volatility.
This and more in your forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Rainmaker In Charge
The chances of the US acquiring part of Greenland shot up briefly after yesterday's announcement on a framework of a deal being finished.
Under a new agreement, the US would hold rights akin to a freehold on certain parts of Greenland, allowing Trump to build bases and maybe even mine rare earths. However, traders doubt the deal can be done by the end of March. They are also unsure the de facto control of certain parts of Greenland will be enough to resolve the market.
#2 Davos At The Center
Staying in Davos, Trump definitely has a more busy week than anticipated - traders gave only 1% chance he will speak with Zelensky only yesterday.
The meeting is supposed to take place today. Witkoff is also due to meet with Putin in Moscow. And maybe, just maybe, we will have another push for peace in February.
#3 A Venezuelan Visit
The news on Trump talking with someone don't end, do they? Now the market is at 67% chance he will meet with Delcy Rodriguez by the end of the quarter.
Rumors from anonymous senior US officials pushed traders to adjust the odds. But it is hardly a shocker - Trump is keen on working with Delcy. They talked extensively before Maduro's kidnapping and Trump already had a phone call with her. Only logical that we now see a historic visit.
#4 Epstein Is Out?
As geopolitics dominates the headlines, the memory of Epstein files fades, as do chances we will see proof of blackmail.
Traders here are not really pricing in blackmail, but an apparent stop in what is a very staggered release of all the Epstein files the executive has. Some are trying to push it, but if you ask us, we see the more spicy content being released closer to the midterms in a targeted manner.
#5 A Promise (Not) Kept
And lastly, the market is no longer confident we will see TrumpRX launch by the end of the month.
The website is live and promises more is "coming soon", but with 9 days left in the month, doubt is creeping in. While some comments on Polymarket indicate the regulatory side of the project is far from finished, the commenter themselves point at a possibility of a workaround.
But probably the key question is whether Trump even remembers to do it this month?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.