Good morning! This one start surprisingly not busy as days in 2026 come.
Today we cover the end of WEF in Davos and hands that were not shaken. On top of that we take a look at the domestic political and health situation in the Us as well as take Elon's new FSD announcement under the scrutiny.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 No Love For Israel
As Davos is ending, so are many markets on what Trump will do there. And the one thing he didn't do is meet with the Israeli president.
But we think it is insignificant. We mainly linked here to show you that Israel, despite the objections, ended up joining the Board of Peace. In the end, they needed to.
#2 Funding Secured
Despite potential issues, it seems that the US will be funded throughout January 31st.
Market updated the odds after it turned out that the bill with funding passed despite the Democrats opposition. Well, what can we say, up until now 2026 is the yar of Trump Ws.
#3 But Maybe Not Everywhere
While Trump clearly has W after W in the global stage, traders now see only 24% chance he will launch his TrumpRX website by the end of the month.
With 8 days left and plenty to be done, traders no longer see it as likely. The website remains the same, and the promises remain unfulfilled.
#4 Higher...
Seems like only a week ago we were discussing 5,000 measles cases in the US and now traders see a 32% chance we will have 10,000 cases in 2026.
Metaculus forecasters still see less than 4,000 cases, but in 2025 they were also slow to update their forecasts. And Polymarket traders are definitely ahead (or overconfident) as over 5,000 cases market has 66% chance to resolve to Yes.
#5 Dispute
Lastly, there is a new big dispute on the Tesla to launch unsupervised FSD.
Despite some coverage, Polymarket issued a clarification that there is still no consensus of credible reporting. But when it comes to Elon, that might change any second. If you are a fan of disputed markets, this is the next big thing ;)
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.