Good morning! Welcome back after the weekend as we unpack the last 2 days in domestic and global affairs.
Today is very US-centric with rumors of another shutdown, a fierce winter storm and other western-hemispheric events that are unraveling - from something as simple as a Fed chair choice to Canadian and Greenland independence.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Here We Go Again
We were almost there, weren't we? The chances of a shutdown dropped to 10% before jumping to 80%.
But with the second killing in Minneapolis, both politicians and traders are no longer sure we won't see another shutdown. Quite the contrary, we now even have the markets for the length of the shutdown. As we keep on saying, the midterms campaign is now in full swing with both sides doing everything they can to discredit the other.
#2 Winter Of The Century
It seems settled that NYC saw up to 12 inches of snow during the weekend, amid one of the harshest winter storm in years.
Almost 1 million people are without electricity as storm wrecks havoc in the US. And you might want to watch this market as it seems that 12-14 incches are still in the books if the snow continues.
#3 Longer
Among all the geopolitical drama it just seems we might have to wait a bit longer for the new Fed chair announcement.
The race has been one of the most volatile markets recently. At one point we had 4 serious contenders, but it seems we are down to 2 - the race is now between Warsh and Rieder. But even as we hear that the announcement should be live in days, January is getting tighter by the day.
#4 Carney's Dillema
Mark Carney surely looked nice on his Chinese photo-op, but it didn't bring him clout he wanted.
And his Davos speech only complicated the situation. Apparently, Carney failed not only to coordinate with the US, but also with his own provinces. So not only does Canada face 100% tariffs if they sign the Chinese deal, but also we hear that some of the provinces (eg. Alberta or Ontario) can be mulling a referendum to leave Canada. Traders are now extremely optimistic considering the short timeline.
#5 Greenland Deal
Last week was all about Greenland, but only now the real game begins.
After a wild week, Mark Rutte seems to have saved the day as he agreed to a framework of a deal with Trump on Greenland. But as PROPHET has been saying (it's a bit funny to write it in third person), it was never about annexation, but a deal to hold some land and have ability to develop infrastructure there and in the proximity. PROPHET's deep dive is coming soon on this one.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.