Good morning! Today brings us updates both in politics and tech. From the cold Minnesota to an even colder space, the last 24 hours brought massive market moves across the spectrum.
We took a look at Insurrection Act invocation, Iran, SpaceX possible launch and more to bring you the most important developments this morning.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 No More Escalation (For Now)
Despite more and more news from Minnesota, traders no longer see the invocation of the Insurrection Act as likely this year.
This comes despite Bannon's calls to invoke it and hopes of many MAGA hardliners. We are of the opinion that it is way too early for that, but depending on how the overall situation evloves in the US this year, it is still a possibility this year.
#2 Iran Update
As "the armada" is coming to Iran, traders are betting and hoping for a currency crisis to complement it. And free market rates are close to the limit as I write this article!
Iran is facing rising inflation, the effect of years of sanctions, water shortage and general mismanagement of the economy. Now many analysts are betting on the economy collapse, that could bring the regime down with it. But some of the regional powers would rather see Iran weak than collapsed.
We are surely bound to hear a lot more about Iran in the coming weeks.
#3 Ukraine Peace Remains Elusive
Last week in Davos somewhat of a breakthrough was achieved - we now have trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine happening in Abu Dhabi. But traders seem to doubt a real breakthrough.
Latest news from the talks is that the key unresolved issue is still Ukraine's exit from Donbas. Considering how difficult territorial concessions are for Ukraine in regards to the constitution, it is no shocker that no immediate Trump-Putin conversation is expected.
#4 Space Moves
Outside of politics, despite Elon's announcement of a new Starship test in 6 weeks, the market remains skeptical we will see it soon.
We've covered the phenomenon of Elon's deadlines here repeatedly and SpaceX is no different. Elon loves to hype his projects, but he is always to ambitious as a way to motivate his employees. Seems like traders expect this time to be no different.
#5 Is OpenAI Cooked?
Yesterday's townhall alleviated some concerns around the company falling behind Google, but trader still don't see it overcome Gemini anytime soon.
Sam Altman admitted that the company was too focused on coding vs creative writing when preparing ChatGPT 5.2 - a mistake they are looking to correct in the coming versions. But traders don't really expect them to be back on the top. This spot seems to be reserved for Google as the tech giant has been dominating almost all benchmarks for a long time now.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.