Good morning! Every day we are looking to bring you value by leveraging prediction market data on key events around the world. From politics to biology, the value of prediction markets is not in gambling, but in aggregating forecasts.

But what is a forecast worth without a context? Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Minnesota Situation

Minnesota is home to a massive amount of drama this year and for good reasons - amid ICE deployment 2 people were killed by federal agents and protests engulfed Minneapolis.

However the market sees only 28% chance the recent Border Patrol shooter will be charged. The administration stands staunchly on agents' side and while Trump says he wants an honest inquiry, there is little belief in any real consequences.

#2 Markets As Military Offensive Pace Analysis Tool

Despite heavy fighting in the area, the market is no longer optimistic Russia can capture all of Prymorske by the end of March.

Polymarket has now listed plenty of frontline city markets on Ukraine war giving us a great way to analyze this conflict and assess the tempo of the offensive. Yet another source of value from prediction markets.

And when it comes to conflict itself, the pace is as usual slow while the talks in Abu Dhabi failed to deliver any breakthrough.

#3 Wide Discrepancy In Measles Cases Forecasts

Polymarket, after launching monthly measles markets, added more brackets and an average of predictions that shows us the consensus of the market.

And here we have a huge discrepancy between Polymarket traders and Metaculus forecasters. The former are predicting 7,345 cases while the latter are seeing only 4,075 cases this year. While Metaculus is (was) on the forefront of measles tracking and forecasting, their 2025 forecast has massively underestimated the cases. And the same pattern of upward forecast update can be seen this year.

#4 To The Moon

The market sees 43% chance we will see NASA Artemis II launch in less than 2 weeks.

The probability is moving higher as we write this piece for the world to witness the second Artemis mission that will take astronauts around the moon in preparation for the third mission that should bring humans to the moon again.

#5 Trading Is Hard

There is a market on a trading competition between AI and humans and the situation looks bleak.

While top traders in the competition are humans, models managed to avoid very large losses and are currently ahead as a team. But both AI and humans are bad with neither team P&L in the green. Who would have known trading is so difficult.

But on a more serious note, it is interesting to see how models trained on human data perform against humans in a real world environment.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.