Good morning! Today is surprisingly light in geopolitics. But with a potential shutdown, a mystery Oval Office announcement and a question mark around the upcoming Artemis launch, there is plenty to report on.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Did You Miss The Shutdown?
Only 2.5 months ago we had the longest shutdown ever end. Now it seems we are on the brink of another one.
The chances fell sharply recently, but a short shutdown is still in the books with Polymarket aggregate showing a projected 6 day shutdown. The whole story began when Democrats, protesting Minnesota ICE deployment, figured they can induce another shutdown. However, just 2 hours ago we learned that there is a deal in sight.
#2 Just In Time
We've covered the TrumpRX market a few times already, but now we might be finally seeing the resolution.
Polymarket traders piled to buy Yes shares after it was released that Trump will have an Oval Office announcement today at 4:30PM ET. It can be anything from the shutdown deal to the Fed chair to TrumpRX launch. But the first two are assumed to be leaked ahead of official announcements.
#3 Iran? You Misspelled Somalia
While media and X analysts are talking about imminent strikes on Iran, Polymarket shows an entirely different reality.
There is an ongoing campaign against ISIS targets in Somalia, in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia. It fails to attract any attention amid the Iran situation, but markets are clear that the next expected strike is on Somalia, not Iran.
#4 Doubts Around Artemis Launch
It took only one day to move from a coinflip to 1/3 chance we will see the Artemis launch by February 7th.
While end of February deadline looks safe with 81% chance of the launch happening, the market is a bit worried about the cold weather. On the other hand, the astronauts have entered a quarantine ahead of launch, indicating that preparations are ongoing.
#5 Gold Seems Trendy Now
While real gold surges in price, reaching over $5,500, it also seems we might have seen the first Trump Gold Card.
Nicki Minaj has supposedly shared a photo of a Trump Gold Card, proclaiming herself Trump fan no. 1. However the primary resolution source is the Trump administration, so we might have to wait a few day (or weeks) for the market to catch up.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.