Good morning! As the world is awaiting another iconic mugshot of Nicholas Maduro, we are trying to analyze when can we expect it to be released. And that's not all as we are looking into Maduro's upcoming trial

This is a Venezuela-heavy brief as we also examine Machado's chances of returning to Venezuela any time soon to fight for power. Outside of the western hemisphere we also noticed a sharp change in the odds of the next president of Portugal.

Lastly we look at Apple as some believe 2026 will be a year of surprises.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Show Must Go On

To anyone who was expecting a swift trial we have some bad news.

This story captures the change in sentiment perfectly - while it might be tempting to rush a case like this, the last one that was even remotely similar (the Noriega case) took 20 months between an arrest and the beginning of a jury trial. There is plenty to happen and even more news stories to push, along with the message of the US military greatness.

Now it is likely we shall know the date on March 17th as this is the next scheduled date for Maduro to appear in court.

#2 Iconic Mugshots

While the Trump administration juices the Maduro capture story, they could at least entertain us with his mugshot, but it seems we won't see it soon.

Traders were also initially bullish to see the mugshot soon, but now not only don't they see it released in 3 days, but also the January 17th market chances are now at 21%.

Till we see it we need to be content with Trump's iconic mugshot. Or AI generated photos.

#3 Can Machado Gain The Power?

For now it seems that the biggest loser of the operation in Venezuela is the opposition.

Neither the legitimate president, nor the opposition leader Machado, who recently won a Nobel Peace Prize that she dedicated to Trump, are taken seriously in the conversations about holding power in the country. Per the leaks Machado lacks seriousness and respect in Trump's eyes, but more importantly, she didn't refuse to accept the Nobel Peace Prize.

Imagine spending your life fighting the regime, crying for a US intervention, only to be sidelined when it finally happens.

#4 Portugal's Contested Election

On a lighter note, we have a tight election coming in Portugal, where 4 candidates are within the margin of error to advance to the second round.

Recent polls somewhat stabilized, showing PSD aligned Mendes and Chega leader Ventura advancing to the second round, but the fresh poll from CNN Portugal shows neither advancing. This extremely close race will happen on January 18th, with a very likely second round scheduled for February 8th.

#5 New Apple Product This Year?

Lastly, for some reason traders believe we will see a new product line from Apple this year.

The company is rather famous for lack of any leaks regarding its new products. However, the enthusiasm on the market might be explained by rumors of a foldable iPhone. But is it enough to resolve this market? We are not entirely sure after reading the rules.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.