Good morning! Today we brought you a more diverse set of markets as we discuss issues from geopolitics to finance.
2026 is quite a ride already and today might be the first day without any major development. Or are we being too optimistic? Well, at least today, the future does not look so bleak.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Is Delcy Consolidating Power?
Traders are more and more certain Delcy Rodriguez will be the leader of Venezuela till the end of the year.
The former VP, now current president, was apparently hand-picked by Trump to lead the country post Maduro arrest. However, Venezuela is full of weapons and people who know how to use them - it just might be that we see overconfidence rather than foresight.
#2 Peace After All?
Only yesterday we focused on a boiling Middle East. Now it seems we might have phase 2 of peace in Gaza.
The chances rose sharply after Times of Israel published an article describing how Trump plans to unveil the Board of Peace, along with other elements of the phase 2 of the ceasefire, next week.
#3 Gambling Issues
Last year many prediction market traders were baffled to see that a new bill specified gambling loss cap at 90%, leaving many professional punters in the red, despite having a pre-tax profit.
While the regulation shouldn't apply to prediction markets, which are financial markets, gambling is close to many people in the forecasting space. We want to highlight that the market can act as insurance for punters!
#4 Measles 2026
After measles turned out to spread wildly across the US, surprising many forecasters and traders, now we are in for part 2.
Currently both forecasters on Metaculus, as well as Polymarket traders see just above 2,000 cases as a base case for 2026. Last year though, the initial forecast was way lower than the final print - let's hope it's not the case this year.
#5 Discord IPO
We've been hearing rumors about Discord IPO for quite some time. Now it seems we are getting it by end of June.
Yesterday a rumor leaked that Discord filed confidentially for an IPO. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are leading the effort, that could still be suspended, as supposedly deliberations are ongoing. Traders though see the rumor as a good signs things are going in the IPO direction.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.