Starting today we are launching a new series with Adjacent. Every morning we will deliver a prediction market focused morning brief, showcasing the most volatile markets in the last 24 hours and key reasons behind the moves.
Is there a better way to start your day than knowing what WILL happen today? Join us as we expand the vision of the forward-looking news, powered by prediction markets and forecasting platforms
Top Movers
#1 NYC Election Turnout
Trades are looking at a record turnout in this week's NYC Mayoral Election after early in-person turnout of 735,000 trumped any expectations. Previous election in 2021 attracted only 170,000 early voters.
Polarizing Zohran Mamadani is surely behind the surge as both his supporters and critics are highly motivated to show their opinion on the ballot. However, his victory is now near certain as barely anyone believes Andrew Cuomo can win:
#2 Israeli Strikes on Lebanon
After striking Gaza City, it is now also confirmed that Israel did strikes on Lebanon yesterday.
Both ceasefires are fragile as on the south Israel is keen to punish any deviation from the plan (last strikes were triggered by Hamas delivering wrong remains of a hostage), while on the north it increases the pressure due to Hezbollah not demilitarizing as agreed in last year’s ceasefire.
We expect tensions to remain high, but renewed fighting is unlikely with my fair value at 15% by the end of the year, which is slightly below market odds:
#3 No End to Government Shutdown
Traders are increasingly bearish about an end to the government shutdown.
On the weekend SNAP payments were affected by the shutdown and yet the threat of millions of Americans not being able to redeem their food stamps was not enough for both parties to come to an agreement.
With neither side willing to compromise the outlook is highly pessimistic:
#4 US-China Trade Truce
In the latest announcement by Trump, it seems that US and China agreed to limit the rare earths export ban imposed in April.
China granted a license to US and global entities, allowing them to buy Chinese rare earths for the time being in a big, but temporary win for Trump.
#5 Google Gemini 3.0 This Month?
Despite no news around the upcoming Gemini 3.0 launch date, Polymarket traders remain nearly convinced we will see the new model from Google this month.
After Sundar Pichai confirmed the Gemini 3.0 will be released late this year a few weeks ago, we didn’t hear any news about the upcoming launch. Yet the chances of the November launch remain high at 82% with an 8% move upwards in the last 24 hours. Insiders?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.