Good morning! Today we are taking a look at Israel normalizing relations across the region as well as a Korean jail drama in the aftermath of a failed coup last year.
Outside of politics, we examine the possibility of the 30-year mortgage rate falling below 6% and Yann LeCun's rumored departure from Meta.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 No Abraham Accords Signing This Year?
Odds of a new country joining the Abraham Accords are dropping fast after a big spike last week.
Kazakhstan announced it is joining the Abraham Accords, however signing might be delayed to have a bigger event in place. With only 7 weeks left in the year the timeline is surely tight.
#2 No Israel x Syria Peace?
Odds of a Israel x Syria security agreement happening dropped across the board.
After the current Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa meeting with Trump on Monday, we got the news that Trump now supports Syrian position when it comes to full Israeli withdrawal from Syria. It's definitely a hard no from Israel's point of view so traders are pricing in a longer process.
#3 Korean Jail Drama
Looks like Park Sung-jae is going to jail, while Han Duck-soo will avoid it after all.
It's all part of the insurrection trial after a failed coup by ex-president Yoon almost a year ago. You can read more about the case here.
#4 No Cheap Mortgage Anytime Soon
Traders are no longer confident we will see 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by the end of the year.
After Powell decided to cut rates twice, the odds of below 6% rate shot up. However in the recent days the Fed became more hawkish, suggesting that the next rate cut is fat from guaranteed. Details by the Fed oracle, Nick Timiraos.
#5 Meta's Chief Scientist Out?
Odds of Meta Chief Scientist leaving this year surged overnight on rumors he might leave to launch a startup.
Financial Times reported that Yann LeCun told his associates he is planning to leave in the coming months as Zuckerberg is in the midst of an AI team overhaul. Despite having LeCun, a pioneer in the field, Meta is falling behind OpenAI, Anthropic and even xAI in the AI race.
Also it seem that Yann himself is looking to get some of that AI bubble pie for himself.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.