Good morning! It's a great one for conspiracy theorists as we are looking at a possible release of the Epstein files coming along with possible strikes on Venezuela.
Outside of the US, we are taking a look at Korea, where the ex-justice minister narrowly avoided jail, the troubles of Keir Starmer and a new update on measles cases in the US.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Epstein Saga Continues
Traders are now confident that the House will pass Epstein disclosure bill or resolution soon.
The Epstein saga continues. After the leaked emails on Wednesday, that put Trump more into the spotlight as a potential figure that was "in the know", we will now have a vote in the House that is all but guaranteed to pass.
However the bill / resolution will still have to pass the Senate where Republicans might try to reject it.
#2 Operation Southern Spear
Last night Pete Hegseth announced the operation Southern Spear.
It seems to be the grand culmination of the recent military buildup in the Caribbean. The mission is to remove narco-terrorist from the western hemisphere and protect the homeland.
We didn't get any more details yet, however traders are more and more confident that besides targeting drugs and cartels, we will see a military engagement with Venezuela soon.
#3 Korean Jail Drama Continues
Only yesterday traders were quite confident that Park Sung-jae would go to jail, only to learn that the court denied the request.
The ex-justice minister can sleep soundly at home for now as the court still believes the proof against him leaves room for debate.
#4 Starmer Out?
Keir Starmer is in more and more trouble as traders increasingly believe he won't make it past the first half of next year.
The wildly unpopular prime minister is facing renewed calls for his resignation. This time the drama is around alleged briefings against health minister Wes Streeting. They are attributed to Starmer's chief of staff McSweeney.
The drama comes just before Starmer wanted to announce income tax increase for new year's budget - now he is supposedly ditching the plan in an effort to remain in office.
#5 Measles Cases Continue To Rise
As we now have 1,723 confirmed cases of measles this year, traders are increasingly confident we will see more than 1900 cases this year.
Both on Polymarket and Metaculus (which also provides great monthly outlook on the issue), predictors updated their forecasts as the US is seeing continuing high number of new cases each week. Initially predicting around 200 cases for 2025, Metaculus forecasters significantly altered their forecasts along the year to end up with a forecast of 1,966 cases in 2025.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.