Good morning! Epstein haunts us from the dead as we are inching closer to have a proper disclosure of the files... or aren't we?
Beyond domestic politics, we are taking a look at the Venezuela situation, Chile presidential election, a crucial UN vote on the future of Gaza and a potential F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia ahead of MBS visit to the White House tomorrow.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Will We See The Epstein Files?
Traders are now confident we will see over 300 House members voting for the release of Epstein files.
After Trump failed to convince Republicans to not vote for the Epstein bill, he is now urging everyone to vote for it, in an effort to show he doesn't have anything to hide. However the real drama will unfold once the bill will go to the Senate.
#2 Hardly A Friendly Conversation
The odds of a Trump x Maduro conversation surged after Trump suggested he might negotiate with Venezuela.
It looks like the ultimatum, as Trump administration will consider Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization starting November 24th. The US believes Maduro is the head of the cartel so the consideration will open a path to land strikes on Venezuela.
We see it as "surrender or we will strike" situation with a very short deadline.
#3 Chile Election
Despite coming second in the first round, Kast is now projected to win Chile presidential election.
In the first round there were many right wing candidates and it is assumed that their votes will go to Kast, a right winger himself. Especially since he is facing Jara from the Communist Party. The runoff is scheduled for December 14th
#4 Board Of Peace Is Coming
Odds of Trump establishing a Gaza Board of Peace surged yet again.
It looks like traders are expecting that the UN vote today will go smoothly. The vote is on the broader resolution, based on the 20-point peace plan and it does include the establishment of the Board of Peace.
#5 No F-35 For Saudi Arabia
Despite Trump's announcement a few days ago, traders don't think that Trump will agree to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia.
Rumors are that Israel wants Trump to condition the sale on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel. I'd say Trump wants it as well as he is looking to expand Abraham Accords - Saudi Arabia joining would be a major win for him.
However Saudi Arabia was not really looking to join Abraham Accords, worried about regional partners reaction after the Gaza war.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.