Good morning! Today we are looking at Trump and what he will do with the Epstein bill on his desk after bashing it relentlessly for weeks. Besides that, we are turning our focus to Ukraine, where under corruption woes a new peace plan might be taking shape.

Outside of politics we are trying to figure out the next Fed decision, as well as which LLM will be the best coding companion by the end of the year. Oh, and it seems that Polymarket might not go live in the US this year.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein Files Bill On Trump's Desk

In a shocking reversal the Senate pushed the Epstein disclosure bill in a single day.

After Trump encouraged Republicans to vote for the bill, it swiftly moved through both chambers to end up on Trump's desk. While traders have little doubt he will sign it, the bill still allows for the files to be redacted - now the main question is "how much of it will we really see"?

#2 Peace In Ukraine Is Back On The Table

Slowly, but surely, Russia is pushing ahead in Ukraine, with traders now pretty confident it will capture a few major cities before the year's end.

However the other news around Ukraine is a corruption scandal that involved people close to Zelensky. Amid both of these developments we learned today that the Trump administration has been working on a 28-point peace plan with Russia.

It seems we will see another peace negotiations, but this time Trump will have leverage over Zelensky to force Ukraine into concessions. Prepare yourselves, it will get interesting.

#3 The Undecided Fed

The Fed remains undecided as traders flip-flop on what option is more probable.

Our designated Fed oracle offers little help as he keeps on highlighting that the Fed is essentially split on the decision. With 3 weeks left till the decision we expect consensus-building to start taking place as markets yearn for clarity on the path.

#4 AI Race

The long awaited Gemini 3.0 made a bit of a mess on the best AI model for coding market.

While the new Gemini is on the top of the vast majority of benchmarks, it is sightly behind on the coding average. However the leaderboard still includes only a preview version and traders expect to see a few iterations of Google's model before the end of the year. Can Google end up at the top? We'll see soon enough.

#5 Polymarket US In Trouble?

Polymarket looks to be in a bit of a trouble.

After shilling the 2025 US launch as a bond, now traders are more and more worried that we won't see the US platform this year. With 42 days left and usual end of year festivities the launch window is getting tight!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.