Good morning! Trump surprised a lot of us today with his announcement of Mamdani meeting. But that's hardly the only surprise this morning.
Today we are also looking at the aftermath of the Argentinian election, the misunderstanding on the Gaza Board of Peace market and first signs of direction from the Fed. Lastly we give you a preview of a traditional market we get every year that is prone to surprises.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Trump x Mamdani Meeting
The Trump x Mamdani meeting is coming sooner than expected!
Despite traders giving it only 20% chances yesterday, we now know that Mamdani team reached out to the White House to arrange a meeting. The mayor-elect will meet with the president on Friday. We are expecting some drama, as it is customary when Trump meets, well, anyone.
#2 Post-Election Thriller In Argentina
Despite the elections being over, traders are still waiting to see who will hold the ultimate power in Argentina.
After the election, the tiresome process of coalition forming started to take place. And since then, quite a few people changed their party affiliations as part of the process. Milei's LLA had a strong performance, and while many doubted they can form a majority coalition, it seems they will manage to do it.
#3 Board Of Peace Flip-Flops
Traders were a bit too eager in the Board of Peace market.
It seems that some of market participants thought the UN backing Trump's peace plan was enough to settle the market that the Board has been established. However, as others pointed, rules are clear that establishment is different than approval. And now we seem to be again close to fair odds - ca. 40% chances it happens this year.
#4 Fed Drama Continues
After a slight slump, now no cut in December is the consensus among traders with 69% chance of happening.
The Fed oracle has spoken, indicating that there might be a very slim majority favoring a pause vs a cut. As we are nearing the decision time, we should slowly be shown the path and it seems this was the first directional indication of where we are going.
#5 Traditional Market Is Back!
As an annual tradition, the Gavle Goat burn market is back on Polymarket.
After a surprising development back in 2023, when the birds ate most of the Goat's filling, the market changed the rules from "destroyed" to "burned". Outside of this unfortunate event the Goat has been burned quite a lot of times, last one being in 2021. Burnings were more common in the past, however now there is increased security to prevent it from happening.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.