Good morning! It seems that every day we learn something new about the Ukraine peace effort and it's never anything good. On the other hand, when it comes to Venezuela, each days we seem to learn nothing.
On top of that we have a fresh military coup in Africa and a small update on measles cases in the US. Oh, and a little holiday market treat for our American readers!
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Peace Drama
Every day we hear more news that put Trump x Zelensky meeting in doubt.
It's been the wildest peace effort so far. Starting with Marco Rubio saying there is no plan after it was leaked, going through frantic negotiations in Geneva, to a point in which a call between Ushakov and Witkoff is leaked, where the latter coaches the former on how to talk with Trump.
More and more, it looks like the effort will fail before it can even reach its proper form.
#2 Venezuela, can you hear me?
Traders are uncertain if a call between Trump and Maduro happened.
The odds spiked initially on an announcement that Trump might talk with Maduro. Then there were rumors that they may have already talked. At the same time the troops are ready and waiting, and tensions are only rising. And it seems that the market, rather than price in new information, is just starved for it and takes anything it sees as the next big truth.
#3 Another Military Coup In Africa
Traders woke up to a major surprise on a Guinea-Bissau presidential election market.
The nation was expecting Sunday's election results today, after 2 candidates claimed victory in the first round. However, before any could prove his claim, the military took over and suspended the election process until further notice. The nation has seen a fair share of coups and unclear election, but it remains to be seen what will come out of this one.
#4 Measles Update
Just a day after we wrote about a discrepancy between Polymarket traders' consensus and Metaculus forecasters' consensus, the odds of over 2,000 measles cases in the US in 2025 spiked sharply.
You can read more about the development in our brief from yesterday. Today we just want to brag that we don't only track big moves - we also bring alpha straight to your inbox ;)
#5 Festivities On The Rise
As Americans are getting ready for Thanksgiving, Polymarket traders are now expecting that this year we will see more people traveling today to meet with their families and celebrate.
In this last highlight today, we want to wish our American readers a happy Thanksgiving! The world might be chaotic, but it's good to take a little break from it from time to time.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.