Good morning! The morning after Thanksgiving might be tough, but we are here to deliver top moves across global events.
Today we mainly look abroad, focusing on Israel, Argentinian Chamber of Deputies and an upcoming election in Portugal. But we also remembered to put in a Thanksgiving market treat.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Hezbollah More Likely To Disarm This Year
The odds for Hezbollah disarming this year rose sharply.
Recently Israel has increased its strikes on Lebanon citing a slow pace of disarmament as a key reason. The pressure has been slowly rising and yesterday, considering a high risk of a renewed conflict, the Lebanese prime minister urged Hezbollah to disarm.
#2 Israel Wants To Finish The Job
When it comes to Israel, traders seem to expect... violence.
Amid rising pressure on Lebanon, constant strikes in Gaza and new campaigns in West Bank, traders cannot help, but price in a high risk of strikes in the latter. However Israel is in a tricky spot itself, as the campaigns it started with US support are not entirely finished and yet the US is now focusing on other theaters, leaving Israel to deal with its own problems alone.
#3 Argentinian Election Thriller Continues
We are witnessing another flip in odds in the Argentinian election market.
Despite the election happening over a month ago, the market is about control of the Chamber of Deputies. And since the election, two competing blocs have been fighting for key deputies to secure the majority as the new deputies only enter the Chamber on December 10th.
Currently the Argentinian media expects LLA (the party of president Milei) to succeed in the end and secure the first place, however they still will be short of majority, currently expected to hold around 110 seats.
#4 Market Moves In Upcoming Portugal Presidential Election
With less than two months left till the Portugal Presidential Election, traders are once again moving towards a 50/50 between two leading candidates.
Portugal is no different than other European countries, where far-right parties are gaining popularity. However Portugese Chega, despite taking almost 23% of the vote, is not likely to win presidency. The main fight is between center-right PSD and a independent, but supported by the right Melo.
#5 Thanksgiving Parade Went Well
Despite traders assigning over 50% chance of a balloon deflating, ultimately the Macy's Thanksgiving parade went on without surprises.
After an incident 2 years ago, Polymarket puts up this market, and as you see it is quite popular. But as such events mature (remember Gavle Goat?), the organizers make sure that no mishaps happen.
Hope you woke up today without major hangovers ;)
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.