Good morning! As we enter the NYC election day, traders are enjoying volatile markets thanks to no one other than Trump!

Outside of the Big Apple, today we are looking at the post-election Netherlands, a volatile Middle East and a shocking upset in the AI trading competition. Stay ahead of the game with our forward-looking morning brief.

Top Movers

#1 NYC Election: Staten Island Winner

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election-staten-island-winner/will-andrew-cuomo-win-staten-island?tid=1762243777816

Andrew Cuomo is now close to being the favorite to win Staten Island after Trump endorsed Andrew Cuomo over Republican Curtis Sliwa.

The last hail mary of the center-right has little chances of turning the election though. We are entering the election day with Mamdani being the 90% favorite to win:

#2 Dutch Coalition Thriller

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-dutch-government/will-the-next-dutch-government-be-vvd-cda-ja21-d66

After shocking election results in the Netherlands, the difficult process of coalition building is taking place.

Center parties are trying their best to avoid making a coalition with the right-wing PVV while traders are trying their best to steer between the process and market rules. Latest projections are suggesting a wide coalition and the market will resolve based on top parties being included in the title rather than any one of them being excluded.

We expect further uncertainty in the market.

#3 Rumors of US strikes on Yemen

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-yemen-by-september-30/us-strikes-yemen-by-december-31

The chances of a US strike on Yemen by the end of the year briefly spiked to almost 80%, fueled by rumors of the strike itself as well as a planned US and Israel military activity in the region.

The market has now normalized, but the odds remain elevated as traders are factoring in a possible US action in the region. We remain bearish on the possibility of US action in the region with USS Gerald Ford now on its way to the Caribbean.

#4 Peace Might Be Coming To Gaza After All

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-establish-a-gaza-board-of-peace-in-2025/will-trump-establish-a-gaza-board-of-peace-in-2025

Chances of Trump establishing a Gaza Board of Peace this year spiked after the US sent several UN Security Council members a draft resolution on Monday for the establishment of an international force in Gaza for a duration of at least two years.

According to the draft, the Board of Peace is central to the establishment of the force. Traders, initially bearish on the feasibility of the board due to the ceasefire's fragility, are now adjusting their stance after seeing signs of real progress.

#5 AI Trading Competition Shocker

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner/will-deepseeks-deepseek-v3pt1-chat-be-the-most-profitable-ai-on-nof1ai-on-october-24?tid=1762243713251

Qwen by Alibaba beat DeepSeek in Alpha Arena AI trading competition. Qwen narrowly beat its peer in the last day of trading after trailing it for the majority of the competition.

The competition, in which LLMs were trading crypto to assess their ability to outperform human traders, saw all of the models but Qwen lose money. However, contrary to human traders, none of the models managed to get liquidated:

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.