Good morning! After a lot of drama, the NYC mayoral election ended extremely quickly with Mamdani securing a decisive win. Democrats also had a lot more to celebrate as they swept other elections.

Outside the US, we are taking a look at South America where we have increasing tensions around Venezuela and Chile where we had a spike in presidential election odds. Oh and it seems we are not getting a MacOS Grok app this year after all.

Stay ahead of the game with our forward-looking morning brief.

Top Movers

#1 NYC Has a New Mayor

Andrew Cuomo did win in Staten Island after we caught his odds are rising yesterday.

However it wasn't enough to stop Mamdani. With 50.4% of the vote and 91% of the votes counted Mamdani is now certainly the new mayor. Congratulations and we are looking forward to seeing the effect of his policies.

#2 It's a Sweep

Democrats have a night to remember as besides NYC, they won the Virginia Governor, the Virginia House of Delegates, and the New Jersey Governor elections. Additionally the redistricting Proposition 50 passed in California, allowing Democrats to flip up to 5 seats in the coming elections.

Trump chaotic policies are not up to people's expectations and last night's results are a canary in the coal mine for 2026 midterm elections. Trump needs to work on his dismal approval rating to give Republicans a fighting chance:

#3 Another Forever War Delayed?

Despite the announcement of another drug boat strike, the market on US military engagement in Venezuela by the end of the year dropped sharply.

Tensions in the Caribbean are rising - while Trump is making up his mind and USS Gerald Ford is on the way, China engaged in a diplomatic effort to avoid a wider conflict. Foreign Ministry issued a statement that can be regarded as a defense of Venezuelan sovereignty and Chinese interests in the country, which spooked some traders a bit.

#4 Chilean Presidential Election Upset in the Making?

Jose Kast is once again a strong favorite to win the Chile Presidential Election, after an AtlasIntel survey a few days ago showed that Johannes Kaiser might beat him in the first round.

The first round is expected to be won by Jannette Jara from the Communist Party, however she is poised to lose against either of the two right-wing candidates in the second round. Traders initially trusted the AtlasIntel survey, however after it didn't prove to be right in the NYC mayoral election, they once again backed Kast.

#5 No Grok on Mac

After months of waiting, it becomes more and more clear that we will not see a standalone MacOS Grok app before 2026.

Elon Musk announced the upcoming desktop app back in February. However Elon Musk is known to overpromise and underdeliver when it comes to timelines. It's a bit shocking that it took so long for the chances to drop below 50%.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.