Good morning! Government shutdown comes back as the main issue in the US as it broke the record for the longest one ever.
Today we also explore the possibility of city-owned grocery stores in NYC, the volatile situation in the Middle East as well as a continuing measles outbreak and new rumors about Gemini 3.0 launch.
Stay ahead of the game with our forward-looking morning brief.
Top Movers
#1 Government Shutdown - There Is An End In Sight
Traders are increasingly bearish on a quick end to the shutdown, but they see one happening by the end of the month.
Initially we've heard rumors of a deal being prepared. However, Democrats emboldened by their win in the elections, decided to ramp up the pressure once again.
#2 Marxism Is Not Coming To NYC
Despite Mamdani's win, traders remain bearish he will be able to fulfill his agenda.
The divisive mayor-elect now needs to make strong alliances to effectively govern. Especially since he indicated he is still at war with the Cuomo family and Trump himself during his victory speech.
#3 Volatile Middle East
Traders are experiencing volatile conditions on Gaza and Lebanon strike markets as Israel is ramping up its pressure campaign.
We are now encountering almost daily strikes, however confirmations are difficult as not everything is announced as it happens. We remain bearish on the war resuming, but we expect further ceasefire violations, in line with the market.
#4 Measles Outbreak
Traders are now almost certain to see at least 1,800 measles cases in the US by the end of the year.
Once considered to be eliminated in the US, measles made a comeback in the recent years, with the 2025 outbreak being the largest to date. Traders initially expected the infections to subside by the end of summer, but now we see that the disease remains persistent coming into fall.
#5 Gemini 3.0 Rumors
Traders are once again seeing the release of Gemini 3.0 as imminent.
The move is probably fueled by this reddit post, that speculates on the upcoming release based on 3 distinct pieces of evidence.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.