Good morning! We had a fairly quiet weekend on the global front, allowing us to take a much needed breather.

But still there were worthy market moves, from the Fed chair nomination, through Ukraine and Honduras elections, to prediction markets regulation and Polymarket US launch.

After all there is never a boring day when you are predicting the future.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Clear Favorite In The Fed Chair Race

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair/will-trump-nominate-kevin-hassett-as-the-next-fed-chair

Traders piled in on Kevin Hassett being nominated as Fed Chair.

This happened after Bloomberg reported that Trump has made up his mind regarding Jerome Powell's successor. Kevin Hassett was rumored to have had the best interview with Bessent several days ago, thus his odds skyrocketed on the news.

#2 Peace Train Is Escaping Everyone

https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025/ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025

After initial excitement, the odds of Ukraine signing a US backed ceasefire framework in 2025 dived.

Traders are more bearish after the Sunday meeting in Florida produced little in terms of tangible results. Rubio commented that while good work had been done, there is still more to discuss.

#3 Honduras Presidential Election Is Head-to-Head

https://polymarket.com/event/honduras-presidential-election/will-nasry-juan-asfura-zablah-win-the-2025-honduras-presidential-election

Traders are attentively watching the news as Nasralla and Asfura are divided by less than 10,000 votes in Honduras presidential election.

Developing countries are known for having unreliable polls and before the votes were cast, 3 candidates were likely to win. Now as the votes are being counted, less than 10,000 is between Nasralla and Trump-backed Asfura. Chances are, Trump will have his small victory.

#4 Prediction Markets In Legal Battles

https://polymarket.com/event/will-sports-prediction-markets-be-banned-in-any-us-state-in-2025/will-sports-prediction-markets-be-banned-in-any-us-state-in-2025

The odds of a ban initially went up as Nevada is looking to fight Kalshi.

However it became increasingly clear that the case against Kalshi is weak, especially since prediction markets are regulated on a federal level.

#5 Polymarket US In 2025 After All?

https://polymarket.com/event/will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025/will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025

Odds of Polymarket US launching in 2025 are up again.

Traders are now more bullish on the news that Polymarket will be able to offer contracts via brokerages (opening path to offer markets outside of the platform, like Kalshi is doing it), as well as on the rumors that more and more traders are getting early access to the US app beta.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.