Good morning! Today we take a quick look at two wars - recent escalations around Venezuela and chances of a Christmas truce in Ukraine.
Outside of global conflicts we found an interesting SpaceX market which surged on IPO rumors and we have our cyclical update on the measles situation in the US.
Lastly, we once again look at DraftKings, where traders are looking for insiders in the market.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 No More Talking
The odds of another conversation between Trump and Maduro dropped sharply.
After recent comments from Trump and US fighters flying over the Gulf of Venezuela, traders are more and more confident that the time for negotiations is over.
#2 It Doesn't Hurt To Try
We also have a new interesting market on the Ukraine war.
Precedent shows that Russia likes to ask for a truce during holidays like easter or Christmas. Historically, these proposal were not considered for the main ceasefire markets, as they never resulted in a tangible, long-lasting ceasefire.
Even more interesting that the odds are low, maybe traders believe that the current peace effort will take priority over fake truce proposals?
#3 What's Rarer Than A Unicorn?
SpaceX post-IPO valuation market of over $1 trillion market soared on new rumors.
Bloomberg reports that the company is looking to raise over $30 billion in an IPO in 2026. SpaceX is targeting a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, putting it next to Saudi Aramco's IPO, the biggest in history. Considering SpaceX is almost a monopolist in its industry, traders are confident about the valuation despite the long timeframe.
#4 Will We Reach 2,000?
After a brief spike a week ago, traders are once again pricing the chance for over 2,000 measles cases like a coinflip.
The recent trajectory of cases will put the total for 2025 awfully close to 2,000 threshold. Metaculus is currently forecasting 1,998 cases with forecasters commenting that they are almost equally split between just below and just above the 2,000 threshold.
#5 Insider Games
Traders on DraftKings launching a prediction market market are trying to figure out if recent Yes shares buyer is an insider.
DraftKings announced the platform some time ago and amid the competition moving fast, many expected the company to launch this year. Recent surge up happened after some traders thought they found an insider buying, however now many are doubting the alleged insider.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.