Good morning! Seems like recent history of prediction markets is filled with insiders and today we have potentially 2 new issues with them in the main role - TIME's Person of the Year and Fanduel x CME prediction market.
Outside of insiders, today we also focus on Trump with his brand new gold card - do you think he will sell one by the end of the year?
And lastly we are looking at the (delayed) Gaza Board of Peace and, yes, another measles market update as odds there jump like crazy.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Who Wants A Gold Card?
Traders remain pessimistic about Trump's Gold Card despite it going live.
Trump announced that the Gold Card is now available for sale - for a cool $1 million you can get a fast track for residency. A Platinum version is in the works as well. It is supposed to give you ability to spend up to 270 days in the US without triggering tax residency laws. Would you buy one?
#2 Volatile Middle East
The Middle East is as volatile as ever with the Gaza Board of Peace now almost certain to be delayed beyond the end of the year.
Traders updated their odds after we learned that Trump will announce it early next year. After all the good news for Yes holders, the reality came in brutally.
#3 Insiders Strike (Yet) Again
Prices on several market related to TIME's Person of the Year went crazy after it turned out that initial insiders only had part of the information.
Traders were initially tailing potential insiders who were piling into AI being named as TIME's POTY. However, yesterday we had a leak of the cover, which quotes "The Architects of AI" as the winner.
As we said before, such markets are extremely volatile as insiders are rampant.
#4 Measles Update
After significantly higher number of measles cases reported last week, traders are now almost certain that 2025 cases will surpass 2,000.
Metaculus forecasters still have the average of 1,998 cases, however we expect them to adjust their forecasts soon.
This will also be one of the markets we will watch closely in 2026. For now Metaculus forecasters expect 1,121 cases next year, but the ranges are very wide and seeing that 2025 brought in record numbers, and measles high season is late winter to early spring, we are poised for another record year...
#5 DraftKings Not Alone?
The odds of Fanduel x CME prediction market this year dropped sharply.
There is no apparent news, but considering the liquidity is thin, it could either be someone trimming the position aggressively or buying the No side - is this yet another case of insiders?
Or is the reality catching up to the market - after all we have only 20 days left till the end of the year.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.