Good morning! Today we take a look back on the gold card market, where it seems that traders were just a bit too excited for the news.
We also focus on two hot regions at the moment - Venezuela with strong US military posture and South East Asia, where we are again seeing Thailand and Cambodia fighting.
That's not all - we highlight a strong move in the Tonga prime minister market as well as examine the new ChatGPT 5.2 - is it enough to beat Gemini?
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 A Bit Too Excited
After it was announced that Trump will begin selling gold cards, traders scrambled to adjust the odds.
However they might have gotten too excited - with only 19 days left in the year and Christmas ahead of us, there might not be enough time to process the first buyer. It's a perfect example of an overreaction.
#2 More Tensions Near Venezuela
Yesterday we learned that the US sized a tanker off the coast of Venezuela - today we learn that there is 48% chance it happens again this year!
Traders are still pricing the event, however it is clear that we see more and more escalations in the region. And most of the traders are slowly adjusting, increasingly betting on No imminent land strikes, but Yes for adjacent events like tanker seizures and boat strikes.
TACO trade all over again?
#3 Trouble In The Paradise
Venezuela is not the only country on Trump's mind - surely he is furious that his ceasefire deal he boasted about is no more.
We are talking about Thailand and Cambodia, who started renewed fighting (look for other articles on this website for more context). And this time traders are not confident we will see a ceasefire soon. With both countries' postures suggesting a prolonged fight, we have only 53% chance of a ceasefire this year.
#4 Tonga With A Dramatic Turn Of Events
Tonga had the election over a week ago, but it still struggles to select its prime minister.
Initially traders were confident we will see the incumbent continue in his role, however yesterday we learned that there are 2 nominations for the position - now the big contest begins between the incumbent and the previous PM.
#5 Gemini Is Undefeated
Despite OpenAI launching ChatGPT 5.2, Gemini stands undefeated.
Traders weren't particularly betting on OpenAI to jump ahead, giving it only 20% chance, but it seems that expectations were higher for the new model to perform around coding and maths - the main moves are in the math and coding markets. Funnily though, that's where Anthropic - not Google - is the leader.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.