Good morning! As we approach the end of the year, we take a look at two wars - Ukraine x Russia and Thailand x Cambodia - both of which see decreasing chances of ending.
Outside of wars, we look back on federal jobs cuts, which have a big surprise to the upside! We also share our candid opinion on the who will Trump talk to markets.
Lastly we have a big update on Warner Bros. acquisition saga (something tells us it's not the last one).
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 More Cuts Than Expected
The job market is in a bad condition and at least some of it can be blamed on the federal jobs cuts.
Traders sharply adjusted their odds after shutdown layoffs held steady in government data. Looks like DOGE might reach its target after being disbanded.
#2 Not Even A Merry Christmas?
Looks like Trump won't be talking to Putin anytime soon.
Traders sharply lowered their odds of Trump x Putin phone call after the previous statement about a call between the two was adjusted to reflect that this call happened on October 16th. In the meantime we just wander how many of these markets misresolve due to conversations not being revealed to the public.
#3 No Conversation And No Truce
Along with dropping odds on a conversation between Trump and Putin, chances of even a unilateral Christmas truce dropped sharply.
Contrary to previous attempts, the current one is being proposed by Ukraine, and rejected by Russia. This time Russia claims that if no peace deal is reached by Christmas, such a short-lived truce would only allow Ukraine to catch its breath before further fighting.
#4 War-like End Of The Year
Ukraine ceasefire is not the only one we are not getting this year.
Traders are increasingly sure we won't see a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia as fighting shows no signs of easing. Trump tried, and failed to secure peace as we continue to see strong posture from Thai side that is increasingly focused on targeting notorious casinos and scam centers.
#5 Netflix Jumps Ahead
Netflix is once again the favorite to acquire Warner Bros. after the shareholders of the latter were told to reject the hostile takeover bid offered by Paramount.
Despite the newer bid being more attractive, Warner Bros. is committed to Netflix at this point. But if you ever read Barbarians at the Gate you know that plenty can happen before we see the end of the process.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.