Good morning! We are only a day away from the deadline to release all Epstein files and traders are in frenzy, with top No holder amassing over 1.5 million shares. We are taking a look at this market and analyzing who is on both sides of the trade.

We are also tracking the tariff dividend market after the mostly unimpressive Trump address to the nation.

Then we move our attention to wars in Europe and South East Asia, where we have tense days ahead. Lastly, we follow a potential insider on the DraftKings market.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Trump's Betrayal?

As the deadline to release the Epstein files approaches, trades become increasingly bearish, pushing the chances of a timely release below 50%.

The move isn't based on any specific news as far as we can tell. It's due to a single trader amassing over 1.5 million shares on No! Is it an insider? We honestly doubt it, but it posies up to be the most exciting market this week as on the Yes side we have a cohort of Polymarket OGs.

#2 Warrior Dividend

The odds of a tariff dividend being created in 2025 rose sharply after Trump announced a warrior dividend of $1,776 for all military personnel.

The announcement came during Trump's prime time address to the nation last night. Despite Trump's claim that the dividend will be paid out before Christmas, traders have their doubts: first, there are doubts around the framing of the dividend as it needs to relate directly to tariffs, second some traders doubt Trump will fulfill his promise due to legal challenges.

#3 Ukraine's Decisive Moment

Despite the outmost importance of securing funding for Ukraine (if the war is to continue), traders remain bearish that the current European Council meeting will result in Russian froze assets use agreement.

The proponents of using Russian assets to finance Ukraine are hoping to convince Belgium to allow for it, since the country is the current custodian of the assets. However, Belgium is looking for strong guarantees it wouldn't be left alone with the burden in case the war ends. It also has powerful backers - Italy is also against the proposal.

We are poised for nerve-wracking 2 days as the European countries begin their negotiations.

#4 Limited Optimism In SEA

After a brief bullish streak, the chances of a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia slumped below 30%.

The odds spiked initially on the rumors that the Chinese special envoy is coming to Thailand and Cambodia to mediate a ceasefire. However, the current Thai PM debunked the story in his last interview. With only 13 days till the end of the year, chances for a ceasefire are slim without any visible effort from either the US or China.

#5 DraftKings - Follow The Insider

Despite only 13 days left in the year, traders are piling in on Yes shares on the DraftKings to launch a prediction market in 2025.

They are following a supposed insider. Is it a case of hopium? Or will we really see the highly anticipated platform this year? Let us know in the comments if you hold any side.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.