Good morning! It's been a busy 24 hours on all fronts as today we cover updates from the Brown University manhunt, European meeting on financing Ukraine, the Fed numbers, TikTok saga and an insider-ridden DraftKings prediction market launch market.
A truly diversified coverage today, but the most shocking story is definitely no. 3 as after the recent CPI release, there are serious accusations about numbers being faked! Read below to see why and what it means for prediction markets on economic indicators.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 The Manhunt Is Over
Traders were not looking for a quick arrest of the Brown University shooter, and while they weren't exactly right, they weren't wrong either.
The suspect in the shooting was just found dead, which practically prevents him from being arrested. Authorities also believe that the man, found with a self-inflicted gunshot wound in a storage unit, was responsible for MIT professor shooting.
#2 Europe x Ukraine - Fake Solidarity
While the European nations agreed on a way forward when it comes to funding Ukraine, they are leaving the frozen Russian assets on the table for now.
Traders were right to be skeptical - Europe couldn't reach an agreement to use the frozen Russian assets and deferred the plan, mandating the Commission to continue working on it. In the meantime, they will loan Ukraine $90 billion, backed by EU budget.
#3 Fake It Till You Make It
Traders were expecting to see ca. 3% inflation in December, however they were surprised by blatantly fake November numbers published by the BLS.
And it's not a conspiracy theory - Nick Timiraos himself calls out adjustments that are against any logic. While we suspected the released numbers to be "massaged" for quite some time now, the fakes were never so obvious. If anything, such practices make trading economic indicators pointless.
#4 Is TikTok Saga Finally Over?
After more than 2 months of silence, traders betting Yes on TikTok sale can feel vindicated.
Axios is reporting that the deal was apparently reached. It is supposed to be signed in January, making Oracle, along with other US investors, a 45% owner of the US entity. Ca. 33% will be held by the affiliates of current ByteDance investors and the remaining ca. 20% will be held by ByteDance. We are looking forward to seeing more details, but from the first glance it looks like the deal is mostly a cosmetic adjustment, considering that US investors are still a minority.
#5 DraftKings Saga Continues
TikTok saga might be anding, but the DraftKings one continues.
Traders are bonding this market after a story broke out about DraftKings launching a prediction market platform in 38 states. The news has been scrapped from the internet, but traders remain optimistic that we will see it once again before the end of the year. It certainly looks ready to launch, considering such a note was sent to news outlets.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.