Good morning! A lot has happened in the last 24 hours, and not among the usual suspects of Ukraine and Venezuela!
Today we once again focus on the Fed, but this time we also take inflation under scrutiny as we see that some traders noticed a mispricing. In global affairs we take a look at Honduras, an election in which Trump seems to have a lot of interest, and Netanyahu, who is looking at one last Washington trip this year.
Lastly, we comment on a highly anticipated launch of Polymarket US.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Hassett For The Win?
The plot is intensifying in the Fed chair announcement market
Only a week ago, a reasonable prediction was no announcement by the end of the year. After all, there are still months before the new chair will assume their position. However a series of favorable articles on Hassett suggest that he is a strong favorite and that the selection process is almost over.
And if there is no more show to run, why not announce and get it over with?
#2 Counting Votes Is A Hard Job
The officials in Honduras apparently stopped counting the votes - the count stopped at 51.5% with 2 frontrunners separated by only 515 votes.
Traders are increasingly worried that we might be looking at election rigging. Trump himself, once a proponent of stopping the count, is urging Honduras to continue counting the votes and allow the winner to win. Of course, he means his own favorite.
Whether Asfura is the real winner or not, Honduras might be wise to appoint him. Otherwise it might face the same consequences as Venezuela.
#3 Good Friends Meet Often
Odds of Netanyahu and Trump meeting before 2026 spiked yesterday afternoon.
Trump invited Netanyahu to visit the White House soon. Traders cautiously expect it to happen this year. After Syrian and Saudi leaders visit, it is only logical that Israeli leader follows. The former is connected to the current Israel-Syria tensions while the latter is connected to the Gaza peace plan.
There is definitely plenty to talk about between the two.
#4 Inflation Out Of Control
Traders are once again expecting inflation to top 3% in 2025.
After September's print indicated a 3.0% CPI over lat twelve months, traders were fairly confident we will see at least 3.1% before the end of the year, especially with the Fed cutting interest rates. Then we learned that we might not see inflation data for some time, only to see that the next print will be published on December 18th.
Taking into consideration how undecided the Fed is ahead of the meeting, Yes holders might be onto something here.
#5 It Pays To Be A Believer
Yesterday we highlighted the initial spike on this market, now it's approaching 100%.
Traders are once again extremely bullish we will see the Polymarket US launch this year. This spike comes after Polymarket launched a new app, dedicated to US trading. While the app is still invite only to use, some traders argue it is enough to resolve the market.
Nevertheless, with invite only app dropping now and getting so popular, the team cannot wait too long to launch.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.