Good morning! Welcome back after the weekend. Today we look a bit back and examine the Friday Epstein files release. While not all of them are here, there are some new revelations and new markets to trade
In foreign affairs we went over Ukraine war and Thailand-Cambodia conflict as both are now in ceasefire negotiation stage. We also found that Netanyahu might be thinking about bombing Iran again.
Lastly we scrutinize measles market, as rules might prove to be problematic for traders and predictors.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Epstein Files Are Here
Traders made and lost hundreds of thousands on the initial release of the Epstein files, as both side were partly right.
The Trump administration released new files, but it failed to produce all of them before the deadline. We are expecting more batches to be released, however traders are not optimistic we will see more by Friday.
For now we are left with the initial release, which offers a stark image of some of the elites.
#2 Putin vs Little Pigs
After Putin's recent comments on Ukraine war traders adjusted their odds of a Trump x Putin conversation.
Ukraine peace effort had a busy week, but it was hardly optimistic. The EU agreed on a financing package for Ukraine, Putin called European leaders "little pigs" and talks in Florida yielded no progress at all.
It certainly seems that peace is as elusive as it ever was.
#3 Netanyahu Strikes Back?
After recent comments from Netanyahu traders sharply adjusted Israel x Iran ceasefire being broken odds.
Netanyahu wishes to discuss new strikes on Iran with Trump as Israeli intelligence assesses that Iran is once again building its ballistic missile program. It is widely understood that Israel didn't finish the job in the summer. However, Iran was severely weakened and is not posing a serious threat for the foreseeable future. But Netanyahu seems to like to stir the pot.
#4 Thailand x Cambodia - Cautiously Optimistic
Traders are cautiously optimistic of a Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire after it was announced that a new round of talks will happen on Wednesday.
ASEAN foreign ministers met recently to address the issue of the war between the 2 countries. They are trying to defuse the conflict, however Thailand seems to understand it has the upper hand as it continues to maintain strong posture, probably to get significant concessions from Cambodia.
#5 Measles Market Rules
While no one doubts we will see over 2,000 measles cases, some traders see an issue with market rules here.
The market will resolve based on the number of cases on the CDC website on the end of day on December 31st 2025. However, it is a public holiday season and many doubt that CDC will update the numbers in time for the market to resolve. If anything, it's another cautionary tale around markets and rules.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.