Good morning! Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating and happy holidays to everyone else!
Today we will try to struck aa lighter note, but we are forced to start with another Epstein market. But it might be a banger during dinner, who knows? Then before we move to more fun stuff, we cover Russian advancements in Ukraine and new markets on Sudanese civil war - we will have a new event to cover in a forward-looking manner!
For entertainment we try to figure out if a daring challenge can be won. All the while we are listening to the two favorites to win the top song on Christmas Day - what's your go to classic?
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Epstein - A Surprising Blackmail
In a shocking reversal, Yes jumped from 3.4c to 100c per share as traders found that Epstein's lawyers blackmailed some victim.
The email exchange details how Epstein's lawyer tried to prevent one of the victims from testifying in the case. It is not exactly the blackmail we all hoped to see (some politician blackmailed for money or protection), but it's a blackmail. And it is enough to resolve the market.
#2 Russia Is Marching Forward
After Russian maps started to show Russia in control of Huliaipole, traders sharply updated the prices on the market.
The ISW map (resolution source) is still showing Russians some 350 yards away from capturing the key intersection to resolve the market, but these are known to be updated with a lag. Traders must expect that the changes in the next 4 days will reflect the supposed reality on the ground.
But regardless, traders are almost certain that Russians will capture the city in the near future as longer timelines trade above 90c.
#3 New Market On The War In Sudan
Polymarket launched new markets around the Sudanese civil war.
It has been one of the bloodiest conflicts in recent times, displacing millions and being home to atrocities visible from satellite images. Now forecasters and punters will have opportunity to price new developments in the war while we will have a new and accurate source to cover this war through the forward-looking news lenses!
#4 A Daring Challenge
In the spirit of predictifying everything, traders are now scrambling to price how likely Alex Honnold is to free solo Taipei 101.
Alex announced his challenge will be streamed live on Netflix on January 23. It surely shapes up to be a nail-biter - do you think he will manage to complete his challenge?
#5 A Christmas Classic
In a surprising turn of events traders are no longer confident Mariah Carey will have the top song on Christmas.
All I Want For Christmas Is You is a household classic, but little brides told me Last Christmas by Wham! might steal the spotlight this year. Personally I don't like either - do you play them at dinner? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.