Good morning! Never a boring day on prediction markets as today we focus on potential insiders on Spotify top streams, a new mystery LLM crushing other models in a trading competition and traders getting overly excited for the next Fed chair announcement.
We also have our usual programming of global affairs, where we take a look at the (lack of) progress in Ukraine peace effort and the shape of the upcoming Chamber of Deputies in Argentina.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Crucial Conversations
Despite lack of progress on the peace front, traders cautiously expect Putin and Trump to talk this month.
Today we learned that the meeting between Putin and Witkoff x Kushner went as expected ie. without any progress. Additionally, Russia's rhetoric became increasingly hostile towards Europe. Looks like traders are anticipating colling of the tensions, or hope that we can avoid an escalation.
#2 Clarity In Argentina
As we approach the first session of the Chamber of Deputies in Argentina, little doubt remains on who will hold the most seats.
This was an especially interesting market, as it not only focused on elections, but also inter-party moves after it. It was a battle that escaped most of western media, but now we can be certain that LLA (the party of Milei) has a strong mandate to rule.
And this is extremely bullish news for US-Argentina relations.
#3 Fed Chair - Too Much Excitement
Kevin Hassett is all but confirmed to be the next Fed Chair. However traders got a little bit too excited on the markets.
After a series of positive press on Hassett, traders became increasingly sure he will be the next Fed Chair. So much so that they started to believe the announcement is imminent. However, Donald Trump cooled the mood yesterday when he said he would announce the next chair only next year.
#4 Insiders Strike Again
Insiders (or quasi-hackers) strike again. After successfully solving the Nobel Peace Prize market, this time they focus on Spotify most streamed artist.
Traders anticipated Drake to take the 3rd spot as number of streams is a publicly available number. However they failed to price in that the lawsuit about Drake's fake views would impact the tally.
Yet someone knew and moved the market a day before the official ranking was released. Truly amazing stuff is happening recently on culture markets.
#5 Mystery LLM Crushing Competition
After the last competition saw a last minute flip on the leaderboard, now we have a mystery model that is about to win the tournament.
Alpha Arena is aiming to test how well LLMs perform in trading various assets. While it appears that most of them are just like humans (they lose money trading), there is a new mystery model that is well ahead of the competition. With hours left in the competition, traders are betting on it to hold the lead.
But the real question here is - what is this model? I hope it will be revealed once the competition ends.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.