Good morning! As we approach the end of the year, some of us are resting, while others are scrambling to get things done before 2026.
Trump is definitely in the latter category as he promised us some surprises in the next 2 days. So just to get ready, today we examine key wars, the future GDP numbers and wave bye bye to climate change (maybe).
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Strike Confirmed
People were slow to realize, but 4 days after the radio interview, Trump confirmed the US struck a drug facility in Venezuela.
The anti-cartel operation market resolved, but a military engagement one is still open as the operation was supposedly conducted by the CIA. However, we had significant movements near Venezuela in the recent days that can result in further action.
#2 Friendly Meeting
Trump met with Netanyahu in Mar-a-Lago, but they stopped at a firm handshake this time.
They were talking about many things, Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire or the Iranian threat. And Tump reaffirmed his staunch commitment to Israel. While some traders expect action between the 2 countries, the markets on this are mostly flat:
#3 Ukraine In A Tough Spot
After increasing pressure from Russia in the recent days, Ukraine is surely in a tough spot.
Zelensky had an interview with Fox News, in which he expressed his pessimism about achieving peace in Ukraine. He mentioned how Putin doesn't want peace and that, while Ukraine is ready to compromise over territory, it cannot give it for free.
At the same time we are awaiting for more surprises from Trump, as he promised us some before the end of the year.
#4 We Only Go Up
Traders are increasingly bearish about a recession.
After the Q3 numbers came in at 4.3% y/y growth, traders realized that headline numbers will be massaged to show growth. Welcome to the new reality.
#5 No More Climate Change?
While climate change policies will take a step back due to the current geopolitical challenges, there is one more reason to celebrate for climate change deniers.
Turns out 2025 will be the second hottest year on record. Initial expectations were for 2025 to be the third hottest year, but a rather warm start of the winter pushed it ahead to the second place. Realistically though, even the EU doesn't really care anymore.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.