Good morning! It's the end of the year and we are here to bring you the top moves from prediction markets. The world never sleeps!

Today, to honor good moods we don't comment on any war markets, but there are plenty of interesting movements across political and cultural markets. One is even set for a fiery dispute! This and more in today's Morning Brief.

Stay ahead of the game!


Top Movers

#1 No More Epstein Files?

https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-admin-release-any-more-epstein-related-files-by/will-trump-admin-release-any-more-epstein-related-files-by-january-9

Traders are increasingly bearish we will see more Epstein files by January 9th.

Rumors are the DOJ needs to review 5.2 million pages of files, making a swift publication doubtful. However, there is still a chance for a phased approach. Whatever happens, we can be sure the Epstein files will be a main topic of discussion for quite some time.

#2 No Gold Cards

https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-issue-a-gold-card-by-march-31/will-trump-issue-a-gold-card-by-march-31

Despite launching some time ago, gold cards are not likely to be issued anytime soon.

Traders increasingly believe we will not see any gold cards issued by at least end of Q1. The scheme is unorthodox, legally complex and traders just do see demand for it. Or there is some other thesis ready to be uncovered?

#3 A Regrettable Record

https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-before-2026/will-there-be-at-least-2050-measles-cases-in-the-us-in-2025-945-574-221-417-575

It looks like we will breach 2,050 measles cases this year.

Being honest, it's not even up for debate. Traders are now only betting on whether the CDC updates the tracker on time. And since they moved the schedule ahead before Christmas, many are betting they will do so again.

#4 New Finance

https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-outperforms-sp-500-in-december/bitcoin-outperforms-sp-500-in-december

After a roller-coaster year, Bitcoin is set to outperform S&P500 this year.

Shouldn't be a shocker, since BTC is a risk asset that had a great year, even with the recent sell off. It definitely set itself apart from other crypto tokens, which are mostly in the red this year.

Do you think we are entering crypto winter? Or will we see more action next year. Us though, we are focused on prediciton markets!

#5 Last Minute Hit?

https://polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-before-2026/will-sza-release-a-new-song-in-2025

Some traders are betting big on SZA releasing a new song this year.

There was a song released with SZA as a feature. However some traders believe it should be enough to resolve the market as some platforms present her as a co-singer (we are not sure how to name it here?).

If anything, looks like January 1st will be a busy day for UMA disputers.


Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The link has been copied!