Good morning! After Spotify wrapped, Google became another victim of insider trading on prediction markets. As the markets become more popular (waiting on you, DraftKings) will insider trading entrench itself - we are taking a look into that today.
In politics, we take a look at Honduras presidential election as well as Ukraine peace, odds of which look more bleak by the day.
Lastly, as Democrats release new images from Epstein island, we are taking a look at Epstein files release market, where first signs of delay start to be visible.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Insiders Strike Again
Rumors are that one insider on this market made millions. And Google took down the site mere hours after the release - is it a sign that we might finally see someone take the consequence of leaking confidential information?
But the news here isn't the insider, or the winner (no idea who he is btw). The news is that it is yet another case in which people with early access to results, use it to profit. Seems like culture related markets are the prime suspects and it looks like we should expect more insiders to use their advantage in the future.
Let us know what you think about insider trading on prediction markets! As we think more about it, we see that while there are some benefits to insider trading, there are also major risks, for example national security in case of geopolitical markets.
#2 No Ukraine Peace
Traders are increasingly bearish about the prospect of Trump meeting Zelensky this year.
After both talks in Florida and Moscow yielded no results, the reality begins to clarify - despite Zelensky's problems with NABU, both sides of the conflict are still too far apart to agree to a lasting ceasefire.
Shocking for some, but not all of us.
#3 Trump Effect?
After several delays in counting the votes it looks like Asfura will hold the narrow lead and win the presidency in Honduras election.
We will never know how much of it was rigging and how much the truth, but Honduras has chosen to align with the US. We don't really expect Honduras to become the new El Salvador, but it looks like the US will have some say in its future policies.
#4 Epstein Still Haunts Trump
Traders are pricing in a delay as Trump is still yet to release the files.
The initial excitement over the release is slowly cooling off as some traders see the possibility of longer delay due to censoring of some sensitive files. However, Trump would also be wise to release them as soon as possible as we are entering midterms election cycle.
In the meantime though it's the Democrats who are releasing new information.
#5 Prediction Markets Supercycle
The title might be AI slop but there is some truth to it.
This year we are seeing more and more prediction markets as traditional bookmakers are entering the market. FanDuel is partnering with CME Group, while we are awaiting DraftKings to launch their platform. They should hurry, only yesterday Fanatic launched its own platform.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.