Good morning! This morning Israel is on the top of the news cycle as we hear new rumors about the Phase II of the Gaza peace plan. Additionally we take a look at European way of creating political pressure on the country amid accusations of genocide.
We also analyze recent moves on Trump to sue BBC market. Lastly we switch the focus to business, where we have big moves on Warner Bros acquisition market as well as DraftKings prediction market platform launch market.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Phase II Is On?
The odds of the Gaza Board of Peace being established this year surged.
Trump is reportedly planning to announce the Phase II of Gaza peace plan by Christmas. This involves the establishment of the Board of Peace, however traders are cautious as Trump is known to promise unrealistic things. This news comes amid Israel violating the ceasefire almost on a daily basis.
With the Phase II live, Israel should move back further and the order inside the strip should be kept by ISF vs IDF. One could hope that this should stabilize the ceasefire, however some say the there won't be much of a difference between the two. I guess naming it International Defense Force was a bit too much.
#2 The End Of The Eurovision?
It is increasingly evident that next year's Eurovision will be a significantly smaller event (or it won't happen at all!).
Traders adjusted the participation odds sharply as Ireland, Netherlands and Spain declared they won't participate in the contest next year. Boycotts come due to Israel being allowed to compete. And European countries seem to believe boycotting a musical festival is enough political pressure to change something.
#3 Trump's Legal Battle Delayed
As Trump remains busy with international affairs, traders are increasingly bearish on him suing the BBC
There is a silence on the topic for a couple of weeks now, thus traders see the odds of a lawsuit this year as low. However this can be a tricky market as any domestic distraction might trigger Trump to once again mention the topic to divert attention.
#4 Netflix Is Entering The Big Leagues
Traders were surprised on the Warner Bros acquisition market as I (PROPHET) am wondering how could I miss this market.
Netflix has reportedly entered exclusive talks to acquire film and TV studios and HBO Max from Warner Bros, jumping ahead of Paramount. If the deal happens, Netflix would end up with an enormous film and TV portfolio, including the Harry Potter series (and upcoming TV show), The Sopranos, White Lotus or Friends.
It would also be a first major acquisition by the company which muscled its way to the top of entertainment industry by offering streaming services before anyone else.
#5 DraftKings Might Not Be Late After All
Traders are betting on the strong momentum in the prediction markets space after the Polymarket US launch.
DraftKings remains behind the competition as several big players in the gaming industry have already launched their versions of prediction markets. After a weak Q3 and a constant pressure from out favorite new players (Polymarket & Kalshi), some traders believe the company will scramble to launch its own platform as soon as possible.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.