Good morning! 2025 is not disappointing and we get plenty of action after the weekend - from moves on the deportations market to UFO disclosure, there's never a boring day on prediction markets.
Outside of the US, today we take a look at the unexpected escalation between Thailand and Cambodia, the Colombian presidential election market moves and another alleged insider moving the odds sharply on OpenAI-related market.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Deportations On The Rise
Traders sharply corrected their assessment on deportations after reports on pace being faster than expected.
However, the market should resolve based on the numbers for the 2025 fiscal year for the US, which ended on September 30th. The consensus for that number is around 350,000 deportations - buying opportunity?
#2 UFOs Are Here?
Probably, but this market is resolving for a different reason.
Some traders argue that some videos being declassified is enough for the market to resolve to Yes. While it probably goes against the spirit of the market (that was aimed at and priced for a big disclosure), but the rules are clear that any new material declassified counts.
#3 Thailand & Cambodia Strike Each Other Again
Turns out the peace between the two countries was more fragile than traders expected.
Both countries accuse each other of starting new fights. In last night's clashes a couple of soldiers died. And now Thailand says that all previous agreements are void, suggesting we might see the part 2 of the conflict.
#4 Change Of Positions In Colombian Election Market
Traders are now putting Ivan Castro (guess his politics by surname ;) ) as the frontrunner in the Colombia Presidential Election.
While he should be a frontrunner, being the candidate from the party of the current president, the sudden movement of the odds is rather due to thin liquidity than anything else.
#5 Insiders Yet Again
The market on the launch date of the new frontier model from OpenAI collapsed after an alleged insider dumped their Yes shares.
Recently such markets are prone to seeing insider activity, which brings aggressive price action. Price was high on the December 9th market due to reports of OpenAI wanting to counter the Gemini 3 launch. However it looks like we might get a slight delay if the person dumping the shares is really the insider - we'll learn soon enough.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.