Good morning! Only yesterday we reported about a strange move on the deportations market only to see it corrected today - coincidence? We don't think so ;)
We also take a quick look at the Middle East where the situation remains tense, but stable for now. Staying with wars, next we examine Russian gains in Ukraine in the context of the peace talks.
Finally we spotted strong move in the Netherlands coalition market and we uncover an uncomfortable reality behind the odds of a Cloudflare outage by the end of the month.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Deportations Are Back On Track
After a brief misunderstanding the deportations market is back to normal.
Yesterday a post suggested that deportations number might be higher than expected. However traders quickly realized that the market is concerned with the US government fiscal year, which ended on September 30th vs a calendar year.
Yet another reason to read our morning brief, we spotted the first move yesterday!
#2 Fragile Peace
Despite progress on the Gaza peace plan, Israel is maintaining strong regional posture with traders giving between 25% and 50% chance of strikes on Lebanon on a daily basis.
Israel is claiming that Hezbollah is not disarming fast enough to justify the strikes. It claims to target Hezbollah infrastructure alone, but Lebanon disagrees in at least some of the cases. We shouldn't expect escalation however, as this situation has been persistent for quite some time now.
#3 Russia Advances In Ukraine
Traders are increasingly bullish on Russia capturing Siversk by the end of the year.
Siversk has been describe as a fortress city, a forward defensive outpost in the Donetsk Oblast. However, Russians have been slowly encircling the city for months now and Ukrainians have been getting ready to abandon it.
Ultimately the fall of the city will allow Russians to attack further westward into the Donetsk Oblast, threatening cities like Kramatorsk which is much more important.
Further advances will also make ceasefire negotiations harder, as they strengthen the Russian position in the talks.
#4 Clarity In The Netherlands
Traders see a path towards a coalition after the election in the Netherlands.
Latest reports suggest that VVD, CDA and D66, a mix of center and center-right parties, might proceed with forming a minority government. All three parties rule out a coalition with PVV, which despite coming second in the election, was responsible for calling the snap election in the first place. There is a chance of adding GL/PvdA (the green party), but D66 ruled out such a coalition prior to the election.
#5 Cloudflare In The Spotlight
Traders no longer see a high chance of a Cloudflare incident by the end of the year.
One of the main internet infrastructure providers has been in trouble recently as the outages became more common and only a couple of days ago we had some rumors around another incident. For now the odds remain at 19% by the end of the month, which is hardly optimistic as it suggests traders expect outages to happen roughly once every three and a half months.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.