Good morning! This morning greets us with some unexpected news fromUkraine, followed by a highly anticipated Netanyahu visit to the White House. But that's not the end of surprises - the markets are now thinking the US government might be forced to refund some tariffs.
Outside of politics we highlighted a new market forecasting GPU rental prices and took a look at Winter Olympic Games 5 days into the tournament.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Striving For Peace
The chances of an election being called in Ukraine rose sharply after FT reported that the US has given Zelensky a May 15th deadline to conduct not only the election, but also a referendum on a peace deal.
Otherwise, Ukraine can lose the pre-agreed security guarantees. Trump has been clear he wants the deal to happen by June so he can fully focus on the midterms with another W under his belt. The path is there, but it is a treacherous one.
#2 Tense Situation
The market was initially pricing in a quick turnaround and another meeting between the US and Iran, but it seems that Netanyahu might have changed this plan.
He is due to meet with Trump today to discuss the current negotiation process and possibly influence it so all of Israel's goals are met. We are bound to hear very strongly-worded statements by the evening, but the market is still confident we will see another Iran-US meeting by the end of the month.
#3 Trump's Problems
The SCOTUS ruling on the legality of Trump tariffs is coming soon. As we anxiously await the results, BYD decided to join thousands of companies with US operations and sued the US government, demanding the tariff refund.
The Trump administration on the other hand is trying not only to show that tariffs were legal, but also that at this point the reversal is impossible. But the market is not convinced:
#4 Forecasting GPU Rental Prices?
Polymarket now makes it possible to forecast GPU rental prices by collaborating with Silicon Data index.
GPU pricing has been crucial for LLM development, crypto mining and other intensive operations. Being able to understand price volatility and expected direction is yet another great use case of prediction markets.
#5 Norway FTW
In a not so shocking development, Norway seems to have secured the top spot in the Winter Olympics.
The Nordic nation is now expected to win the most medals in the competition as it leads the table 5 days into the competition. The country has won in the previous 2 games and since it lives and breaths winter, it is no shocker it is also a strong favorite now.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.