Good morning! This week is full of rumors, but lacks in substance. It seems like we are backtracking every major move on the markets only days later; from Ukraine, to Starmer to Winter Olympics, volatility is the name of the game.
Today outside of politics (and Winter Olympic Games) we cover the Fed and a rare culture market as "Wuthering Heights" fell sharply from graces after initial reviews.
Do you like culture markets?
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Tempered Expectations
Yesterday FT reported that Zelensky is pressured to do an election and a referendum by May 15th, causing the chances to spike on the market; only hours later Zelensky denied everything, tempering the market's expectations.
The reality is that regardless of the deadline, the American pressure is there to have a deal ready. We are looking at interesting couple of months ahead of us.
#2 Not So Fast
Today seems to be a story of overreacting markets as almost the same situation happened with Keir Starmer.
Seems that at least for now, the crisis is over. There was not enough internal support for any other candidate to topple Starmer. But as I spoke last week, there are plenty of opportunities in the coming months for that to happen. And if you were to trust my gut, this price seems fair.
#3 A Stroke Of Confidence
Traders were already pricing in a pretty high conviction of no change in interest rates in the next FOMC meeting, but now the market seems virtually certain.
Traders are betting on strong labor market data to give the Fed enough comfort to not change the rates. At the same time though, it is a sure way to anger Trump. Ultimately it is bound to make for another interesting outburst from POTUS.
#4 Sudden Change
Only yesterday we reported on Norway being almost certain of victory when it comes to the number of Winter Olympics medals, but now it seems US has at least a chance.
Traders dramatically updated their fair values after Norway touched 80% chance as the table now looks wide open. That being said, Norway has one of the best teams when it comes to winter sports and the country has won 2 previous Winter Olympic Games.
#5 Are You A Man Of Culture?
We rarely touch culture markets here, but this epic fall from graces deserves a segment in our Morning Brief.
"Wuthering Heights" was supposed to be a banger starring Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie. However early reviews are split as the movie is only inspired by the classic novel and for some critics it is "sex over substance". Will you watch it , or do you prefer to stay with the classics?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.