Good morning! This Friday we are back to tracking Iran, Olympic Games and new LLMs, with potential insiders on the market
Besides that we found a curious market on the SAVE Act that made the news yesterday and we looked. again at measles, which once again is proving to be more stubborn than anticipated.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Murky Waters
SAVE America Act passed the House, but the market turned cool for 2 reasons.
The first one is that the Act is due to struggle in the Senate, where even Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) went against it. And the second reason is that the market is about the initial version of the Act, which is no longer being considered. Sometimes rules are king and we need to read them to truly understand the maret.
#2 Escalations
After successfully deploying a naval blockade on Venezuela, the market increased the chances of a tanker seizure near Iran.
All due to rumors that the Trump administration is mulling using a similar tactic in Iran. However, many experts warn that Iran is significantly more likely to respond to such actions. The market is also taking that into consideration, thus only a limited increase to 43% chance.
#3 Measles Is Back
We are once again turning our attention to measles as after the recent update, Polymarket traders adjusted their forecast sharply.
It is now projected we will see ca. 1,137 cases by the end of February and 5,921 by the end of the year. In the meantime, Metaculus forecasters also see more cases than before, with a collective forecast above 5,000 cases in 2026, up from ca. 3,000 at the beginning of January.
#4 Fight On
It seems like every week we hear about a new LLM being dropped as AI labs are fighting for dominance.
Now we are hearing about a new Gemini version, after Google updated Deep Thinking mode yesterday. Contrary to the title here, it doesn't need to be 3.5, it can be any successor to Gemini 3 that is not Gemini 4 (or 5...). As we only saw rumors online, is it another case of insiders (like this account) looking to make bank?
#5 Competitive Winter Olympics
Norway is still ahead, but our Day 3 coverage of the Winter Olympic Games market sees Italy gaining ground.
After a good performance in the first days of the Games, Italy is boasting 17 total medals with 6 gold ones while Norway has only 14 medals, with 7 gold. Norway is still the strong favorite, but we believe that many traders didn't anticipate such a contested market.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.