Good morning! We seemingly lacked situations to monitor between Epstein files (former prince Andrew was arrested), Iran (buildup and more ultimatums) or Ukraine (hard pressure from Trump), we are now also possibly looking at alien life disclosure!
Outside of the extraordinary (and wars...), we take a look at crypto regulation, measles situation and the Winter Olympics, where medal podium has clarified.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Tensions
We are approaching the weekend, but the market, after a wild week, is looking more stable than ever.
Trump is back to issuing ultimatums, which can mean we actually are waiting for Iran to draft their version of the agreement to see if there is any way to strike a deal. And derivative markets are great to understand volatility on the underlying market.
#2 Aliens Confirmed?
Between Epstein, Iran and Ukraine, Trump decided we do not have enough issues to focus on - so he decided the US government needs to declassify all files related to UAPs and other potentially alien phenomenons.
However, the market is not sure it will bring the disclosure everyone's waiting for. There is a long way between showing documents of an unidentified object and outright claiming that non-human intelligence is here.
Ultimately, there is a part in each one of us that yearns for aliens to be real, isn't there?
#3 Regulated Crypto Industry
A topic close to our hearts, the market now thinks there is 78% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year.
It's a massive act regulating most aspects of the crypto industry. It probably has as many backers as opponents, depending on what is your idea of crypto. However, in our opinion, regulating the industry was the only viable path long-term.
#4 Measles Update
As February approaches end, the markets also converge on the amount of measles cases in the US this month.
With 8 days left, we can expect around 1,128 cases by the end of February (YTD), while annual forecast is well above 5,000 cases. It's a shame though that Metaculus stopped their monthly respiratory outlook.
#5 Clear Situation
Lastly, as we approach the end of the Winter Olympics, the gold medal podium looks set: Norway, USA and Italy, which breached 80% chance it ends up in the third place.
We are not avid watchers of these Games, but we assume plenty of you are. Any sports you recommend in the last 2 days? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.