Good morning! It was quite a weekend as we enter the new week with new round of US-Iran talks scheduled and Mexico looking like it's a war zone. On top of that this week we are awaiting State of the Union address, which historically attracts all kinds of prediction markets traders.
The end of February is looking especially packed, even for 2026. Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Game On
Fresh from European Monday morning, Iran has supposedly delivered its version of the draft of the agreement and the market is 84% sure we will see another US-Iran meeting this week.
Optimism comes on the back of the meeting being set for Thursday and both side being cautiously optimistic during their media appearances. Additionally, we are awaiting Modi's visit in Israel on Wednesday and Rubio's visit on the 28th, pushing the likelihood of strikes down.
#2 SOTU
This week is also special as we are due to hear the first State of the Union address by Trump in his second term. An event especially popular among prediction markets traders as it invites mentions market experts, election modelers and geopolitics sharps.
We expect the peak frenzy to hit tomorrow, but in the meantime we already have interesting movements in the "Who will attend SOTU" market, where George Santos's own X post fueled speculation that despite being banned from Congress, he might attend the speech.
#3 Out Of Control
Markets on US anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico experience massive volatility after El Mencho, the head of the feared Jalisco New Generation cartel was killed in an operation that was looking to arrest him. He was badly injured during a shoot-out between his forces and the Mexican army.
The killing was followed by a massive response from the cartel members, with some Mexican cities being described as looking like war zones. Some traders must believe that the US military might be needed to stabilize the situation ahead of the FIFA World Cup.
#4 Issues
After Ripple CEO expressed his optimism for the Clarity Act to pass, the chances on Polymarket sharply dropped, from 80% down to 43%.
The market is reacting to rumors that the negotiations over the act are stalling in the Senate, with yield being the main point of contestation.
#5 Another Delay
Artemis II was supposed to launch in February, but a failed wet dress rehearsal pushed the date towards March. Now, despite the markets being bullish on end of March deadline, we are looking for April as the next possible month.
A failure in the helium flow forced NASA to once again postpone the launch and after the first week of March, the next window is only in April.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.